Hurricane Katrina

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storms in NC
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#381 Postby storms in NC » Thu Aug 25, 2005 8:38 pm

mf_dolphin wrote:
mtm4319 wrote:The 10pm position estimate will probably have it around 25.7 N. A west-southwest movement is perpendicular to the angle of the coast, but it might even be moving enough southward to increase the time it's over land by an hour or two (but it probably won't make much difference).


Actually it's going to decrease it's time over land. Since the sw Florida coast slants to the SE it will be back in the water a hour or two ahead of schedule.


I have to say you are right. She will hold on to her strength
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#382 Postby mtm4319 » Thu Aug 25, 2005 8:46 pm

mf_dolphin wrote:
mtm4319 wrote:The 10pm position estimate will probably have it around 25.7 N. A west-southwest movement is perpendicular to the angle of the coast, but it might even be moving enough southward to increase the time it's over land by an hour or two (but it probably won't make much difference).


Actually it's going to decrease it's time over land. Since the sw Florida coast slants to the SE it will be back in the water a hour or two ahead of schedule.


I was thinking it slants more to the SSE, but reasonable minds can differ. :)
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#383 Postby Astro_man92 » Thu Aug 25, 2005 8:56 pm

bump
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#384 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 25, 2005 8:57 pm

WTNT52 KNHC 260154
TCEAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

AT 10 PM EDT...0200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED
BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS INLAND OVER THE EVERGLADES ABOUT 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF
THE CITY OF HOMESTEAD FLORIDA.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

Wow still a hurricane.
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#385 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 25, 2005 9:06 pm

81 mph gust just reported at Tamiami, TWC.
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#386 Postby Hyperstorm » Thu Aug 25, 2005 9:08 pm

It has only been three hours since it made landfall, so it's not unusual to have a hurricane maintain its strength over land for this short period.

It's quite likely that at 11pm it will be maintained as a hurricane...
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#387 Postby PurdueWx80 » Thu Aug 25, 2005 9:08 pm

Brent wrote:81 mph gust just reported at Tamiami, TWC.


KTMB 260153Z 15046G70KT 1/2SM FG BKN005 OVC013 24/ RMK AO2 PK WND 16070/0152
RAE41 SLPNO P0243 T0244

Yep, and they just had 2.43" of rain in the last hour!!!!!!!!
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#388 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 25, 2005 9:11 pm

Hyperstorm wrote:It has only been three hours since it made landfall, so it's not unusual to have a hurricane maintain its strength over land for this short period.

It's quite likely that at 11pm it will be maintained as a hurricane...


Well... crossing the swamps it's not, but that wasn't forecasted and it's coming across much faster. It also looks like it's getting better! organized over land...
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#389 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Thu Aug 25, 2005 9:12 pm

SW is not good thing. That ridge looks pretty strong too. This will probably stay a HC. If it keeps the same motion for anothr 3 hrs the W side will be out over water. If it does go back to TS, it won't be for long.

Hang on GOMers
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#390 Postby robjay » Thu Aug 25, 2005 9:13 pm

Hyperstorm wrote:It has only been three hours since it made landfall, so it's not unusual to have a hurricane maintain its strength over land for this short period.

It's quite likely that at 11pm it will be maintained as a hurricane...

Yeah, but considering this thing barely made Hurricane status this is pretty amazing!
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#391 Postby cjrciadt » Thu Aug 25, 2005 9:15 pm

robjay wrote:
Hyperstorm wrote:It has only been three hours since it made landfall, so it's not unusual to have a hurricane maintain its strength over land for this short period.

It's quite likely that at 11pm it will be maintained as a hurricane...

Yeah, but considering this thing barely made Hurricane status this is pretty amazing!

Agreed, Frances made landfall as a Cat2/3, falling to barely a cane seems reasonable. Katrina made landfall barely as a cane, and is still a cane almost 4 hours later, with excellent conditions waiting for her in 3 to 4 hours.
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#392 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Thu Aug 25, 2005 9:19 pm

Wow, and when I left to go out of town on Tuesday, could not really find a LLC. everything has to be watched close in. This was the "wave that couldn't" and "why don't we lock this thread" 5 people in the forum then....
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#393 Postby solarflare » Thu Aug 25, 2005 9:30 pm

Katrina is moving over a "River of Grass. The Everglades is a large, shallow body of water with no discernable difference in elevation from the oceans surrounding it. And the water is Hot in August! No wonder she's not weakening much. And with the WSW trajectory she'll be back over open water soon. hmmm.
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H.Katrina Recon Reports

#394 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 25, 2005 9:36 pm

Ok new thread for the GOM missions flying into Katrina.
Last edited by cycloneye on Mon Aug 29, 2005 2:27 pm, edited 33 times in total.
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#395 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 25, 2005 9:38 pm

I live in boyton beach and managed to meander over to the beach today when a rather intense band came through. The rain and sand was stinging my face and I was something I won't forget then the police let us no that we were parked in a no parking zone. Here in boynton beach we didn't get the worst and I really feel bad for the people in dade county right now god be with them. I will not soon forget these last 11 months when we had 3 hurricanes hit our coast. Anyone else make it to the beach today?
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#396 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 25, 2005 9:41 pm

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

FLZ071>074-260330-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-MIAMI-DADE METROPOLITAN-WESTERN BROWARD-
WESTERN MIAMI DADE-
1030 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS CONTINUE ACROSS MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD
COUNTIES...

AT 1030 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED OVER THE EVERGLADES OF
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY SEVERAL MILES WEST OF KROME AVENUE. A PROMINENT
RAINBAND ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA WAS STILL PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER PORTIONS OF
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FROM SWEETWATER TO FLORIDA CITY. RAINFALL OF
SEVERAL INCHES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WAS PRODUCING FLOODING IN
THESE AREAS. ANOTHER RAINBAND EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST BROWARD COUNTY
TO THE MIAMI BEACH AREA AND SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS. THIS BAND ALSO CONTAINED VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND WIND GUSTS
TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN WEST MIAMI RECORDED
A WIND GUST TO 86 MPH AT 917 PM. WEATHER INSTRUMENTS AT TAMIAMI
AIRPORT IN WEST KENDALL RECORDED A WIND GUST NEAR 80 MPH JUST BEFORE
1000 PM. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE METRO
AREAS.

CONDITIONS ARE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE AREA...AND VENTURING
OUTDOORS IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. TWO FATALITIES HAVE ALREADY
OCCURRED IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA THIS EVENING...DON'T MAKE YOURSELF
ANOTHER STATISTIC.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.
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#397 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Thu Aug 25, 2005 9:46 pm

What ramifications will Katrina's more southerly exit into the Gulf have. I looked at the 5pm forecast and it showed her exiting around Naples. It looks as though she will exit no further north than Everglades City. Will this make any difference. Also it has been mentioned that the trough is not digging down south as forecast, instead in a more zonal west to east flow. Any ideas?
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#398 Postby millibar » Thu Aug 25, 2005 9:46 pm

For what its worth, folks...
...looking at the WV and the strenght of that high to Kat;s NW, IMO she may be going much further west than current projections.
Gonna be an interesring 48-72 hours!!!

Chuck
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#399 Postby FlSteel » Thu Aug 25, 2005 9:47 pm

I'm beginning to think that Kat will maintain hurricane intensity all the way across. She still looks good on IR and on radar. This is trully a fighter and will not die easily. :x
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#400 Postby mtm4319 » Thu Aug 25, 2005 9:51 pm

They need to issue hurricane warnings from Bonita Beach to East Cape Sable (maybe even Flamingo) at the 11pm advisory.
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