Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[otowntiger]

2 pm advisory: "drifting north." What? How is it drifting north when it loses a tenth of degree in lattitude since the 11 am advisory? I don't get it. I think a more accurate description of its motion would be "drifting" as she is not going anywhere right now.

[DESTRUCTION5]

12Z SAT ECMWF is near south tip of FL Mon. evening:

Wuro got is this far but I think its time to give up on him...Too much agreement further north

[AZS]

CNN:2 deaths confirmed now in Playa Del Carmen

[Brent]

I don't know why, I think that we will have/have had a borderline cat 3/4 by this time tomorrow. It's looking pretty good right now, and it's going to hit the water in about 6 hours and start strengthening almost immediately.

I keep thinking back to Dennis... remember? Weakened from a Strong 4 to a Cat 1 after crossing Cuba and then exploded back to a Strong 4 again a few hours later?

[LanceW]

I don't know what you guys are talking about but its digging and digging good..

When I look at the WV Loop with the Fronts option, it shows the blue line deep into the GOM. Do fronts not show on WV Loops? What am I missing. Not trying to be argumentative, just trying to learn. TIA

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

anybody have the link to the spaghetti models so i can see where all this "north shifting" is occurring today. -just woke up and haven't seen anything since 5pm last night

[gatorcane]

its going to weaken to a cat 1 almost certainly while over the Yucatan.Not sure why NHC kept it as a strong 2 when it emerges. May even weaken to a TS if it does not start moving. It will re-intensify quickly for the first 12-24 hours once it is back over the water.

this has very little chance of becoming a cat 4, not sure why some feel that this is a shoe in 4

Derek there is very little if no shear still off the north coast of the Yucatan. She is generating alot of convection still on the east side that should quickly wrap into her center. Water temps are very warm also.
Another thing is that the dry air off the NW is not impacting her as much as I would think.

It won't be difficult for her to be a CAT 4 again.

[Ivanhater]

I don't know why, I think that we will have/have had a borderline cat 3/4 by this time tomorrow. It's looking pretty good right now, and it's going to hit the water in about 6 hours and start strengthening almost immediately.

I keep thinking back to Dennis... remember? Weakened from a Strong 4 to a Cat 1 after crossing Cuba and then exploded back to a Strong 4 again a few hours later?

yep, i remember waking up that morning and it looked horrible, then it came back together

[DESTRUCTION5]

its going to weaken to a cat 1 almost certainly while over the Yucatan.Not sure why NHC kept it as a strong 2 when it emerges. May even weaken to a TS if it does not start moving. It will re-intensify quickly for the first 12-24 hours once it is back over the water.

this has very little chance of becoming a cat 4, not sure why some feel that this is a shoe in 4

Bout to move of noe Derek? Cat 2 seems Very likely now as it exits..

[theworld]

Who here would board up if they lived on the river in Ft Myers?

Board it UP! Get out!

I've lived in the NE my whole life, and to this day I cannot believe the nievity of some on the Gulf (not necessarily you myersgirl).

Does anyone remember history ? Ever visited a devastated area after only a Cat 2 or 3 w/surge. HELLO!

Myersgirl.... i think you're gut is saying do it and leave.... do it. Otherwise you would not be asking.

[WxGuy1]

I don't know what you guys are talking about but its digging and digging good..

When I look at the WV Loop with the Fronts option, it shows the blue line deep into the GOM. Do fronts not show on WV Loops? What am I missing. Not trying to be argumentative, just trying to learn. TIA

Water vapor imagery shows moisture in the mid and upper levels of the troposphere. A "dry" area seen on WV does not indicate dry air at the surface, and so forth. You can infer the surface pattern based on water vapor, but it'd be nothing more than an inference. I certainly wouldn't use (or advise) WV imagery to find surface patterns, since it really can't.

[cjrciadt]

Cites in the crosshairs of the tracks[/img]

[gtalum]

She's right exactly under one of the NHC forecast points as of the 17:45 visible frame. I think the NHC has her landfall point nailed.

[ronjon]

I don't know what you guys are talking about but its digging and digging good..

When I look at the WV Loop with the Fronts option, it shows the blue line deep into the GOM. Do fronts not show on WV Loops? What am I missing. Not trying to be argumentative, just trying to learn. TIA

I think with all the posts about fronts there is some confusion. The front is nothing more than a shallow wedge of cool air at the surface. It doesn't steer large tropical cyclones - the upper air pattern steers the cyclone. In this case, it's the trough dropping down toward the deep south. The first front that is located in the big bend region is progged to stall out over north-central Florida. A secondary front will move down the FL peninsula AFTER Wilma has departed to the NE. At some point in the future (24-36 hrs?) Wilma will be pulled E-NE or NE by the westerlies toward the peninsula - not by the surface front but by the trough drifting south & Wilma gaining latitude in the GOM.

[Stratosphere747]

For those insisiting on the movement. Check out the latest cordinates....

I'm also with the consenseus that this may even weaken to a cat1 if movemennt does not occure quickly.

[gatorcane]

A secondary front? This is too much of a Dec./Jan setup.

The front the NHC has drawn now I think is a little off. The blue line should be moved back left on the right side...I don't think it has moved through the Panhandle yet.

The cooler air moving over the warmer waters of the GOM is created "cold air" clouds in the western GOM so that makes sense but off the coast of the panhandle you don't see them so it has not moved through them yet.

[cjrciadt]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/atlanim8ir.html
Great angle to see how the front will mover Wilma in the future.

[artist]

ftmyersgirl - please go to these links -

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/html/tbw/

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/newpage/ghl ... robhr.html

[Sanibel]

In my opinion the storm is in a dead stall. The NE drift is an illusion caused by the storm releasing its core from overland friction and weakening. The west side is not moving NE.

This is good for us because it weakens Wilma prior to returning over the Loop Current.

While this storm may not be "magic" it is obvious it is a strong-hearted storm of the opposite scale from Charley. Typical of 2005, it is more like a deep Atlantic September storm.

It looks like the track is zoned for SW Florida. This will most certainly have an impact of some significant degree. Cold front tracks tend to have fewer departures from expected track.

The sharp-eyed will notice Wilma did yet another structure change and has rounded and tightened. The symmetry is excellent for a land-inhibited storm. It has water on three sides - that's why.

Going to box important personal stuff now...

[gatorcane]

Wilma is definitely starting to strenghten....her convection is increasing and the symmetry is coming back.

Does anybody else notice this?

I really think she'll bomb out when she gets fully over water.