Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[DESTRUCTION5]

WOW... GFDL has it moving at 25 to 30 mph across Florida...

Looks like 20-25 brent..

[Raebie]

I am so confused, I can't tell exactly where the eye is, it seems that it was located farther west earlier.

Based on the 11am position... I believe it's in the darker blue on the extreme NE tip of the Yucatan.

Agreed. It looks to be intensifying abit in that area based on the last frame too.

[Brent]

WOW... GFDL has it moving at 25 to 30 mph across Florida...

Looks like 20-25 brent..

48 26.1 82.6 53./20.0

That is knots... which is 25 mph. As it exits the East Coast, it's going 25 kt, which is 30 mph.

[chris_fit]

Another slight northern shift.

Sanibel to Sebastian Inlet.

ewww Sebastian is about 15 min. South of me

[DESTRUCTION5]

WOW... GFDL has it moving at 25 to 30 mph across Florida...

Looks like 20-25 brent..

48 26.1 82.6 53./20.0

That is knots... which is 25 mph. As it exits the East Coast, it's going 25 kt, which is 30 mph.

Sorry was thinking that was MPH

[tampaflwx]

Wow, so GFS now has landfall around Sarasota and GFDL closer to Ft. Myers?

[gatorcane]

I've been looking at this trough that is supposed to barrel it's way into the GOM and it appears to be meeting resistance this afternoon. You can see it digging just about to the northern Gulf coast then the dry air is being pushed eastward more than southward.

Look at the water vapor loop. Could it not dig down as much as expected?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html

[Raebie]

If you look at the shortwave loop, it's clear she's moving offshore to the north east, significantly east of the forecast points, at a fairly good rate.

[jkt21787]

I've been looking at this trough that is supposed to barrel it's way into the GOM and it appears to be meeting resistance this afternoon. You can see it digging just about to the northern Gulf coast then the dry air is being pushed eastward more than southward.

Look at the water vapor loop. Could it not dig down as much as expected?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html

Seems to be digging at a steady rate from that loop. Not particularly fast, but steady.

[artist]

NOAA is nearing Wilma!

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE WILMA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.2N 87.0W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL242005



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 22.10.2005 21.2N 87.0W STRONG

00UTC 23.10.2005 21.5N 86.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 23.10.2005 22.2N 85.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 24.10.2005 24.4N 83.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 24.10.2005 26.4N 80.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 25.10.2005 29.9N 74.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 25.10.2005 37.7N 67.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 26.10.2005 43.1N 61.5W EXTRA TROPICAL



12z UKMET.

[Ivanhater]

If you look at the shortwave loop, it's clear she's moving offshore to the north east, significantly east of the forecast points, at a fairly good rate.

that is just not correct, it is not moving northeast and is not significantly east of the forecast points

[LanceW]

I've been looking at this trough that is supposed to barrel it's way into the GOM and it appears to be meeting resistance this afternoon. You can see it digging just about to the northern Gulf coast then the dry air is being pushed eastward more than southward.

Look at the water vapor loop. Could it not dig down as much as expected?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html

Seems to be digging at a steady rate from that loop. Not particularly fast, but steady.

Seems to me, and I am no MET, that it is really not digging that far anymore, more to the east now instead of south. Early on in the loop it is diving south, but towards the end it is more east than south. What does this mean, I have no idea.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I've been looking at this trough that is supposed to barrel it's way into the GOM and it appears to be meeting resistance this afternoon. You can see it digging just about to the northern Gulf coast then the dry air is being pushed eastward more than southward.

Look at the water vapor loop. Could it not dig down as much as expected?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html

Seems to be digging at a steady rate from that loop. Not particularly fast, but steady.

Seems to me, and I am no MET, that it is really not digging that far anymore, more to the east now instead of south. Early on in the loop it is diving south, but towards the end it is more east than south. What does this mean, I have no idea.

I don't know what you guys are talking about but its digging and digging good..

[Emmett_Brown]

Based on ir loop, looks like Wilma is beginning to move, but not N, or NE... looks more like NW still. Also, the cloud deck is becoming more circular, and the outer eye way more prominent over the water.

I also dont see a hint of shear. My point is, the westerlies are still pretty far north along the northern gulf, and dont appear to be moving south yet.
Perhaps we will see a more northerly motion initially instead of the immediate NE movement shown on the official track.

I realize the westerlies are coming, and there is a front there, but the big trough is still waiting for later Sunday.

[chris_fit]

If you look at the shortwave loop, it's clear she's moving offshore to the north east, significantly east of the forecast points, at a fairly good rate.

Umm no

[Myersgirl]

Who here would board up if they lived on the river in Ft Myers?

[gatorcane]

Based on ir loop, looks like Wilma is beginning to move, but not N, or NE... looks more like NW still. Also, the cloud deck is becoming more circular, and the outer eye way more prominent over the water.

I also dont see a hint of shear. My point is, the westerlies are still pretty far north along the northern gulf, and dont appear to be moving south yet.
Perhaps we will see a more northerly motion initially instead of the immediate NE movement shown on the official track.

I realize the westerlies are coming, and there is a front there, but the big trough is still waiting for later Sunday.

I think you are right. She could easily make it back to CAT 4 tonight.

[Raebie]

You're right. After further review, that's an area of intensification I'm seeing, not the eye.

[x-y-no]

HURRICANE WILMA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.2N 87.0W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL242005



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 22.10.2005 21.2N 87.0W STRONG

00UTC 23.10.2005 21.5N 86.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 23.10.2005 22.2N 85.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 24.10.2005 24.4N 83.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 24.10.2005 26.4N 80.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 25.10.2005 29.9N 74.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 25.10.2005 37.7N 67.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 26.10.2005 43.1N 61.5W EXTRA TROPICAL



12z UKMET.

See graphics I posted earlier.

Not my favorite model at the moment ...