Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[caneivan]

I don,t see it staying on land for long and I think it will come out a weak CAT 3 and then it will intensifiy for a bit. and hit FL as a strong CAT 3. you people in FL should hope for the best but do NOT I REAPEAT DO NOT LET YOUR GAURD DOWN.

[Ground_Zero_92]

From the looks of the IR Sat loop and Water Vapor loop, Wilma has begun it's movement to the North. Currently looks NNW. If anything, it looks to me that she will exit the NE Yucatan earlier than expected. I think she will make a beeline to the water. If I had to guess i would say that she's exiting the Yucatan between the 2pm and 5pm advisories today.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[weatherSnoop]

I notice the N movement, but what strikes me more it the moisture rebuiling on the west side...The "eye" appears to be over land and it should be suffering more!

[f5]

GOM and Caribbearn are nearby.she will make a run once she begins to feel like a dead horse

[Ground_Zero_92]

I notice the N movement, but what strikes me more it the moisture rebuiling on the west side...The "eye" appears to be over land and it should be suffering more!

I agree, additionally, look at the entire convective envelope on the west side. It's flattening out, and this is not just the effects of landfall. Looks like the cold front is begining to impact Wilma's outflow on the west side.

[superfly]

I guess Mexico doesn't seed their hurricanes

[weatherSnoop]

I notice the N movement, but what strikes me more it the moisture rebuiling on the west side...The "eye" appears to be over land and it should be suffering more!

I agree, additionally, look at the entire convective envelope on the west side. It's flattening out, and this is not just the effects of landfall. Looks like the cold front is begining to impact Wilma's outflow on the west side.

Guess I am just off, I thought the west side was starting to look better! maybe, after a long night at the office I did not notice the time frames of the loop I was observing. Looked again, and not sure I am wrong, but I might be.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 220843
TCDAT4
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

THE EYE HAS MOVED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN AND IS BECOMING
LESS DISCERNIBLE ON IR IMAGES....BUT IT REMAINS CLEARLY DEFINED ON
CANCUN RADAR. VERY USEFUL DATA HAS BEEN RECEIVED FROM SEVERAL
MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC COASTAL STATIONS AROUND YUCATAN. THE
STATION LOCATED IN ISLA MUJERES LOCATED OFFSHORE NEAR THE
NORTHEATERN TIP OF YUCATAN HAS BEEN MEASURING MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND
90 KNOTS FOR MORE THAN 9 HOURS. LATEST MAXIMUM WIND AT 06Z WAS 88
KNOTS. BECAUSE THE EYE IS INLAND THE HURRICANE HAS WEAKENED AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 110 KNOTS. SOME ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHILE THE EYE IS
MOVING OVER YUCATAN. A MODEST STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR ONCE THE
HURRICANE MOVES BACK OVER WATER INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BEYOND 48 HOURS
SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WILMA
IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE ATLANTIC AFTER
CROSSING FLORIDA. THE FORECAST INTENSITY OF WILMA WHILE CROSSING
FLORIDA IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH KEEP AN INTENSE
HURRICANE WITH 100 TO 115 KNOTS AND THE SHIPS MODEL THAT RAPIDLY
WEAKENS THE CYCLONE.

WILMA HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT A GRADUAL
NORTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND FORCE WILMA TO MOVE ON A NORTHEAST TRACK
WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS ARE IN A BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT MAKING THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST MORE CERTAIN. IT IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE DEFINITE THAT
HURRICANE WILMA WILL CROSS FLORIDA IN A HURRY ON MONDAY. THE LONGER
THAT WILMA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...THE CHANCES BECOME GREATER
FOR A MORE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRACK AS INDICATED BY SOME GUIDANCE.

THE INTENSITY OF WILMA WHILE CROSSING FLORIDA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE A CATEGORY ONE OR
TWO AT LANDFALL. WILMA'S WIND FIELD WILL PROBABLY EXPAND AS IT
CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THEREFORE...THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL LIKELY COVER A LARGE AREA.

BASED ON THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA...A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY
BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0900Z 20.9N 87.2W 110 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 21.5N 87.3W 90 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 23/0600Z 22.0N 87.0W 100 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 23/1800Z 23.0N 86.0W 100 KT
48HR VT 24/0600Z 24.5N 83.5W 95 KT
72HR VT 25/0600Z 32.0N 74.0W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 26/0600Z 41.0N 64.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 27/0600Z 46.0N 54.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 220842
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005

...CALM OF THE EYE STILL FELT IN PLAYA DEL CARMEN...WILMA REALLY
CLOBBERING NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER TODAY.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST ABOUT 25 MILES...45 KM SOUTHWEST OF CANCUN AND
ABOUT 430 MILES...690 KM...SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

WILMA IS STATIONARY BUT A GRADUAL NORTHWARD DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN LATER
TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO SEVERELY
POUNDING PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA ALL
DAY TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY
WHILE WILMA IS OVER LAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...WILL
CONTINUE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE EYE ALONG ON THE NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE. OUTER RAINBANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ESPECIALLY THE
KEYS... PRODUCING 2 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY.

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...20.9 N... 87.2 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...935 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM
CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

[tampastorm]

Actually north and south outlfow look better then it has in hours.

[caneman]

I do believe Hurricane Watch will start from Tarpon Spring Southward. Interesting the GFS has been very reliable, in fact, GFDL has come in line with it. Looks to me like landfall will be between POrt Charlotte and Ft. Myers. Expect to ad 25 to 30 winds on top of what ever they system is at landfall. The storm is epxected to be moving at 35 mph so if wilma is 100 mph at landfall damage will be tha of a 125 mph storm. I exprct surge to be from 7 to 10 ft. I would bet that all of Central and South Florida will experience at least TS strength winds. The good news it will be over quick the bad a lot of area will be affected. This will probably resemble the storm of the centruy for West Florida.

[no advance]

Joe B is calling for a strong cat 2 to hit fl. Tornadoes and storm surge worry me the most.

[no advance]

Little windier than the storm of the century I worry.

[caneman]

Little windier than the storm of the century I worry.

I'm afraid she's gonna be a good blow. Don't not forget that even though it may be 100 to 110 at landfall you have to add another 25 mph due to forward motion. She looks to do alot of messin up from Tampa area South to Naples and Dayton South to west Palm.

[Nancy]

[quote="DoctorHurricane2003"]Yep I would much rather it hit the US than somewhere where 3000 people will die



I should probably speak for myself, but I have a feeling you're not going to get many Floridians or New Orleanians to agree with you. If Wilma hit the west coast of Florida with the same fury, there would be 7 million people in harm's way, not to mention an outdated levee system built in the 1920s surrounding Lake Okeechobee, the site of 3000+ deaths in 1928.

Nature has decided to give Florida a well-deserved break on this one.

[jlauderdal]

Yep I would much rather it hit the US than somewhere where 3000 people will die

humans are humans no matter where they live. Remember, that could have been you in Mexico

\

whats wrong with you, you dont think people living in florida, the gulf coast, etc realize all this. don't get on a soapbox from PA and tell people tht have been affected in the usa how they should be feeling, we have the picture, believe me. the keys will have basically been shutdwon for at least 6 days to tourism, guess how they make money in the keys? PM me if you want to discuss further.

[no advance]

Dont get worked up about it Some of us need a nice relaxing vacation in Jamaica.

[no advance]

Could Wilma develop a new center more NE. Look at the latest sat.

[wxwatcher2]

Could Wilma develop a new center more NE. Look at the latest sat.

If Wilma was a tropical depression or developing storm Possibly but not in this case. The center of circulation is still strong and centered just West of Cazumel on the coast. What you're seeing is an elongating of the cloud tops as the system begins to expand and feel the effects of the front.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Could Wilma develop a new center more NE. Look at the latest sat.

No She is feeling the Tug now...Elongating N-S...Getting ready to make her move N..