Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

We will find out what happen tomarrow. Something tells me Mexico is going to ask for it to be retired.

[gotoman38]

Think you could say it officially made landfall on the mainland YP judging by the 3:15 frame? Looks like the center of the eye is now on the mainland coast.

I concur... just N of Playa del Carmen

[Stratosphere747]

And the hotel zone... sitting on a barrier island.... I would expect part to be completely washed through?

Photos in another thread show that. Thankfully, though, waters around Cancun are fairly deep, still, a 10-15 ft surge is quite possible.

The problem is the constant winds.

I think some people are forgetting that this event for Cozumel and Cancun started around 8pm Thursday, yet here we are late in the evening on Friday.

Scott

[superfly]

Cozumel in the SE eyewall now. Cancun is in between the inner and outer eyewalls, should be in the NE inner eyewall soon depending on speed of storm.

[HURAKAN]

WILMA'S EYE NOW INLAND.

[gotoman38]

Cozumel in the SE eyewall now. Cancun is in between the inner and outer eyewalls, should be in the NE inner eyewall soon depending on speed of storm.

Are you sure of this?

Can Cun is on the NE tip of the peninsula and extends S about 10 miles.... it looks to me that they are taking the brunt of the outer eyewall. They are about an hour's drive N from Playa del Carmen which is directly W of San Miguel de Cozumel... on the center west of the island.

[Windtalker1]

Think you could say it officially made landfall on the mainland YP judging by the 3:15 frame? Looks like the center of the eye is now on the mainland coast.

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And looks "DamnGood" for being over land!

[cancunkid]

And the hotel zone... sitting on a barrier island.... I would expect part to be completely washed through?

Photos in another thread show that. Thankfully, though, waters around Cancun are fairly deep, still, a 10-15 ft surge is quite possible, and a barrier island could indeed be washed through.

Try http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/mexico.shtml that is the site under the heading photos from cancun

[CronkPSU]

very interesting movement the past 2 hours....ugh, this thing definitely has a mind of its own,

maybe a discussion will say this

wilma has very little regard for computer models

[wxmann_91]

Radar image shows two things:

a) Wilma is going to make landfall within the next hour, but sats can be deceiving, it has not made landfall yet.

b) The outer eyewall is merging with the inner eyewall and the moat is filling. Cancun is in the outer eyewall, and as the moat fills, the point becomes trivial.



(To see full-sized version: http://img486.imageshack.us/my.php?image=cancunradar524xu.jpg)

[CronkPSU]

we have the new gfdl/gfs models yet?

[HURAKAN]

[thermos]

Good forecasting? From 5PM Discussion

INITIAL 21/2100Z 20.6N 86.9W 120 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 20.9N 87.3W 100 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 22/1800Z 21.2N 87.5W 80 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 23/0600Z 21.8N 87.4W 80 KT

From 11 PM Discussion

INITIAL 22/0300Z 20.8N 86.9W 120 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 21.2N 87.1W 100 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 23/0000Z 21.7N 87.2W 90 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 23/1200Z 22.3N 86.9W 95 KT

The 5PM looks to be wrong in that it wont make it to 87.5 west. But will Wilma even make it to 87.2 West? Maybe. But they already backed off on numbers just from this afternoon. I'm not blaming the NHC they need more $, more data and more people.

[cinlfla]

0z GFS 60 hours

[cinlfla]

0z GFS 66 hours

[CronkPSU]

0z GFS 60 hours

can't tell where that is...is that still around ft meyers?

[cinlfla]

0z 72 hours looks like it wants to ride the east coast.

[Brent]

can't tell where that is...is that still around ft meyers?

Close... I have stared at it far too long trying to figure it out.

[cinlfla]

can't tell where that is...is that still around ft meyers?

TO me it looks like its around Port Charlotte Maybe Sarasota not sure exiting around Melbourne. My eyes are getting tired so maybe someone else might know for sure.

[tampastorm]

Very wierd even though the eye is collapsing inland, the dark red is firing up on the east side.