Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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CronkPSU
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#3241 Postby CronkPSU » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:19 pm

Emmett_Brown wrote:From the looks of the latest loop, Wilma's weakening trend has begun in earnest. Eye now half on land, and gulping dry air.

Threat to FL now dwindling by the hour IMO. Especially with a strong cold front progged to move 2/3 down the state of FL
on Sunday.

No way she gets to the state any more than a cat 1 IMO, and when she does, she wont be fully tropical.


i'll take that bet
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#3242 Postby Stratosphere747 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:20 pm

gtalum wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:looks to be huging the coast..


She's already halfway onshore. She's slowly moving NW, right along the NHC's track. Sorry.


*sigh*

It is almost pointless anymore...
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#3243 Postby Brent » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:25 pm

wxman57 wrote:Ignore the BAMs, LBAR, XTRAP, and any of the climo models (like AH98E). Keep tabs on the GFDL, ECMWF, GFS, UKMET. Canadian is pretty bad with tropical systems. NAM is terrible with most weather systems and particularly bad with tropical systems.

The slower Wilma tracks over the next few days, the deeper the jet will be digging toward and into the NE Gulf of Mexico by late this weekend. That's a pretty strong cold front pushing south into the Gulf by Sunday afternoon. Could turn Wilma nearly due E-ENE.


Thank you... and yes, it is a POWERFUL cold front coming.
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#3244 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:30 pm

why do you say a POWERFUL cold front. What evidence do you have? In my opinion, the Jet stream will dip but will be more amplified and will be position SW to NE over North FL.

That is what happens typically in mid October. A powerful cold front like this won't happen until Nov or Dec.

This will allow a more NE track into central FL.
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#3245 Postby Brent » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:30 pm

HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
0300Z SAT OCT 22 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 86.9W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 932 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT.......175NE 175SE 120SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 325SE 175SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 86.9W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 86.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.2N 87.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.7N 87.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.3N 86.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 25SW 45NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.5N 85.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 27.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 35.0N 71.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 45.0N 59.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 86.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#3246 Postby markymark8 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:33 pm

Yeah she is moving more west now. Stairstepping her way to massive weakening. Already the west side is almost gone. It will be a matter of time till that makes its way to the center. There is no signs at all that the trough is going to pull her up very fast. She will be a cat 2 before u know it moving at this pace. It looks like 3mph or less on last couple of frames. The NHC looks like they have nailed another one. The million dollar question with this storm is exactly how long will she stay over land. If it is 12 to 24 hours she will weaken faster than when she strengthened to a 5. She is starting to go down it seems and pretty quick. Florida has to be somewhat smiling about this.
Last edited by markymark8 on Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#3247 Postby Brent » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:34 pm

Image
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#3248 Postby Brent » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:36 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005

...CENTER OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA JUST ABOUT TO MAKE
LANDFALL ON THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST OR ABOUT
15 MILES... 25 KM...SOUTH OF CANCUN MEXICO. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT
20 MILES... 35 KM...NORTH OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR.
A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF
WILMA OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
CENTER OF WILMA IS OVER LAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 932 MB...27.52 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER ALONG ON THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE. OUTER RAINBANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ESPECIALLY THE
KEYS... PRODUCING 2 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY.

NOAA BUOY 42003 IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATES THAT LARGE
SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...20.8 N... 86.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 932 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#3249 Postby krysof » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:36 pm

markymark8 wrote:Yeah she is moving more west now. Stairstepping her way to massive weakening. Already the west side is almost gone. It will be a matter of time till that makes its way to the center. There is no signs at all that the trough is going to pull her up very fast. She will be a cat 2 before u know it moving at this pace. It looks like 3mph or less on last couple of frames. The NHC looks like they have nailed another one. The million dollar question with this storm is exactly how long will she stay over land. If it is 12 to 14 hours she will weaken faster than when she strengthened to a 5. She is starting to go down it seems and pretty quick.


we shall see
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#3250 Postby Emmett_Brown » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:36 pm

boca_chris wrote:why do you say a POWERFUL cold front. What evidence do you have? In my opinion, the Jet stream will dip but will be more amplified and will be position SW to NE over North FL.

That is what happens typically in mid October. A powerful cold front like this won't happen until Nov or Dec.

This will allow a more NE track into central FL.


Actually, I think you both are right. The front, a fairly strong one, will hang up over the state, Wilma the the front will interact, the storm will become partially extra tropical, and could be pulled more northerly by the interaction.

NEXRAD has an excellent post in the analysis forum about this "possibility" at http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=77298
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#3251 Postby Brent » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:37 pm

Failing to reach 60 for a high during the day Monday here(especially considering we topped 85 yesterday)... I consider that to be a powerful front for this time of year.
Last edited by Brent on Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#3252 Postby vbhoutex » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:38 pm

boca_chris wrote:why do you say a POWERFUL cold front. What evidence do you have? In my opinion, the Jet stream will dip but will be more amplified and will be position SW to NE over North FL.

That is what happens typically in mid October. A powerful cold front like this won't happen until Nov or Dec.

This will allow a more NE track into central FL.


Considering our temps are going into the mid 40's monday night, I would consider the front pretty strong. The trough out in front of it will likewise be strong.
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#3253 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:39 pm

boca_chris wrote:why do you say a POWERFUL cold front. What evidence do you have? In my opinion, the Jet stream will dip but will be more amplified and will be position SW to NE over North FL.

That is what happens typically in mid October. A powerful cold front like this won't happen until Nov or Dec.

This will allow a more NE track into central FL.


Well, "powerful" is relative. Strong enough to maybe bring snow to the mountains along the east coast. Strong enough to drop temperatures into the 40s along the Gulf Coast. GFS indicates 50kt westerly winds at 500mb dipping into the northern Gulf south of the FL Panhandle by Sunday evening.

But landfall is still 3 days away. Much will likely change between now and Monday.
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#3254 Postby johngaltfla » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:40 pm

Based on the 2300 advisory, the "west" stuff we've been hearing all night was just the wobble, the center is still moving NNW or 330.

Now that is settled for tonight, I've noticed Venice, FL is moving up the charts on the strike probability charts. Guess my forecast might still verify.
:eek:
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#3255 Postby johngaltfla » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:41 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
boca_chris wrote:why do you say a POWERFUL cold front. What evidence do you have? In my opinion, the Jet stream will dip but will be more amplified and will be position SW to NE over North FL.

That is what happens typically in mid October. A powerful cold front like this won't happen until Nov or Dec.

This will allow a more NE track into central FL.


Considering our temps are going into the mid 40's monday night, I would consider the front pretty strong. The trough out in front of it will likewise be strong.


I would consider a 20 degree difference in our nightly lows from now to Tuesday is pretty darned powerful....
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#3256 Postby THead » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:41 pm

boca_chris wrote:why do you say a POWERFUL cold front. What evidence do you have? In my opinion, the Jet stream will dip but will be more amplified and will be position SW to NE over North FL.

That is what happens typically in mid October. A powerful cold front like this won't happen until Nov or Dec.

This will allow a more NE track into central FL.


Its definitely not unusual of to have a cold front pass all the way through s. fla before the end of October.
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#3257 Postby Foladar0 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:41 pm

Landfall is now Sunday, again.
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#3258 Postby superfly » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:42 pm

While IR imagery shows the west side deteorating, the eye is still closed and eyewalls look very strong. Cancun is in the northern outer eyewall. Cozumel is just entering the southern inner eyewall.

Image
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#3259 Postby johngaltfla » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:43 pm

Foladar0 wrote:Landfall is now Sunday, again.


Nope. 1 p.m. Monday it's still SW of me. Check out the NHC site for graphics....
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#3260 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:43 pm

johngaltfla wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Ignore the BAMs, LBAR, XTRAP, and any of the climo models (like AH98E). Keep tabs on the GFDL, ECMWF, GFS, UKMET. Canadian is pretty bad with tropical systems. NAM is terrible with most weather systems and particularly bad with tropical systems.

The slower Wilma tracks over the next few days, the deeper the jet will be digging toward and into the NE Gulf of Mexico by late this weekend. That's a pretty strong cold front pushing south into the Gulf by Sunday afternoon. Could turn Wilma nearly due E-ENE.


I don't know if you've seen the latest animations for the GFS and GFDL and they are indicating more of a NE route; cutting through South Sarasota County to the Port Charlotte area with 120+ winds....

If you've seen them, I'd love to hear your comments, because these trends of the globals moving northward is disturbing to some of us.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation[/url]


Yeah, I had seen the GFS and GFDL. Been putting up sheetrock for 12 hours today at my mother's house near Biloxi. Two days of sheetrocking and about 60% of the walls are covered.

Anyway, I see the GFS putting the center inland near Punta Gorda around 14Z Monday. GFDL is near there, too. But it's still 3 days out, nearly. Wilma could slow down a bit more, giving the westerly winds time to build farther south into the Gulf by Monday. FL peninsula from Tampa south is definitley under-the-gun, though. Just too early to say where.
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