Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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Bgator
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#3221 Postby Bgator » Fri Oct 21, 2005 8:49 pm

Does anyone have full spaghetti run for 00z? And exact landfall is still not certain, whole cone at risk!
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CHRISTY

#3222 Postby CHRISTY » Fri Oct 21, 2005 8:49 pm

wilma continues this north movement..
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#3223 Postby TampaFl » Fri Oct 21, 2005 8:49 pm

Agree, the next 12 - 24 hours will be very interesting.

Robert 8-)
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#3224 Postby tronbunny » Fri Oct 21, 2005 8:50 pm

ronjon,
I'm with you... not nice for Lee, Collier or Sarasota Counties... nor any county south of I-4.
With that GFDL none are spared Cat 1-3 winds.
All starting Monday morning....
All during daylight hours, thankfully.

Tomorrow will be the day to get everything prepared.
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#3225 Postby TampaFl » Fri Oct 21, 2005 8:51 pm

Bgator wrote:Does anyone have full spaghetti run for 00z? And exact landfall is still not certain, whole cone at risk!



Image
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#3226 Postby LanceW » Fri Oct 21, 2005 8:55 pm

Interesting comments here for sure:

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT HOMES AND BUSINESSES. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ENCOURAGES RESIDENTS VOLUNTARILY TO EVACUATE. THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY REMAINS OPEN TO ACCEPT RESIDENT EVACUEES. EVACUATING RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO SEEK SHELTER NORTH OF ORLANDO IF THEY CHOOSE NOT TO STAY AT THE
DESIGNATED SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY...


A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER FOR ALL MOBILE HOME DWELLERS AND SPECIAL NEEDS
CLIENTS WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 6 AM EDT SATURDAY. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL MAKE A DECISION REGARDING MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL KEYS RESIDENTS ON SATURDAY MORNING.
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#3227 Postby CronkPSU » Fri Oct 21, 2005 8:58 pm

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early2.png

<img src="http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png">
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#3228 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:01 pm

TampaFl wrote:Some models have shifted more northly :eek: Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert 8-)


Image


Not the important ones Rob
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#3229 Postby tronbunny » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:06 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
TampaFl wrote:Some models have shifted more northly :eek: Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert 8-)



Not the important ones Rob


And which ones ARE the important ones?

I understand the GFS and GFDL are fairly well relied upon..
The UKMET has also come north, a bit.
As has the Canadian.
Maybe the NOGAPS hasn't moved much north.

The overall consensus has definitely moved north in the 12z and 18z runs today.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/com ... 18/M5.html
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#3230 Postby CronkPSU » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:06 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
TampaFl wrote:Some models have shifted more northly :eek: Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert 8-)


Image


Not the important ones Rob


which ones are the important ones? the GFS and GFDL which have both had some horrible runs lately?
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#3231 Postby THead » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:08 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
TampaFl wrote:Some models have shifted more northly :eek: Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert 8-)


Image


Not the important ones Rob


Yeah, GFDL and UKMET well south of Tampa area, looking to be exiting right over Boca_chris' house on the east coast. j/k.......kinda......
:wink:
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DrStorm

#3232 Postby DrStorm » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:11 pm

I wonder what the time record is for one location to have sustained hurricane force winds?
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#3233 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:13 pm

CronkPSU wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
TampaFl wrote:Some models have shifted more northly :eek: Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert 8-)


Image


Not the important ones Rob


which ones are the important ones? the GFS and GFDL which have both had some horrible runs lately?


Ignore the BAMs, LBAR, XTRAP, and any of the climo models (like AH98E). Keep tabs on the GFDL, ECMWF, GFS, UKMET. Canadian is pretty bad with tropical systems. NAM is terrible with most weather systems and particularly bad with tropical systems.

The slower Wilma tracks over the next few days, the deeper the jet will be digging toward and into the NE Gulf of Mexico by late this weekend. That's a pretty strong cold front pushing south into the Gulf by Sunday afternoon. Could turn Wilma nearly due E-ENE.
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#3234 Postby jkt21787 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:15 pm

wxman57 wrote:Ignore the BAMs, LBAR, XTRAP, and any of the climo models (like AH98E).

I told people this earlier and they completely dismissed my opinion and viewpoint as wrong. Maybe they will give you more credence...

Thanks, BTW, for reinforcing my original point.
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#3235 Postby O Town » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:15 pm

I know Frances diddled around the coast for a while, but was not cat 4/5 winds. That is a good question, intrested to see the responses. They sure are taking a beating there in Mexico, bad timing on Wilmas strenth and stall for them.
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#3236 Postby Stratosphere747 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:16 pm

DrStorm wrote:I wonder what the time record is for one location to have sustained hurricane force winds?


Great question...

I would venture to say that portions of Cozumel and areas near Cancun have experinced sustained hurricane force winds for over 18hrs if not more..
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#3237 Postby johngaltfla » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:17 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Ignore the BAMs, LBAR, XTRAP, and any of the climo models (like AH98E). Keep tabs on the GFDL, ECMWF, GFS, UKMET. Canadian is pretty bad with tropical systems. NAM is terrible with most weather systems and particularly bad with tropical systems.

The slower Wilma tracks over the next few days, the deeper the jet will be digging toward and into the NE Gulf of Mexico by late this weekend. That's a pretty strong cold front pushing south into the Gulf by Sunday afternoon. Could turn Wilma nearly due E-ENE.


I don't know if you've seen the latest animations for the GFS and GFDL and they are indicating more of a NE route; cutting through South Sarasota County to the Port Charlotte area with 120+ winds....

If you've seen them, I'd love to hear your comments, because these trends of the globals moving northward is disturbing to some of us.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation[/url]
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CHRISTY

#3238 Postby CHRISTY » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:17 pm

looks to be huging the coast..
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#3239 Postby Emmett_Brown » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:18 pm

From the looks of the latest loop, Wilma's weakening trend has begun in earnest. Eye now half on land, and gulping dry air.

Threat to FL now dwindling by the hour IMO. Especially with a strong cold front progged to move 2/3 down the state of FL
on Sunday.

No way she gets to the state any more than a cat 1 IMO, and when she does, she wont be fully tropical.
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#3240 Postby gtalum » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:19 pm

CHRISTY wrote:looks to be huging the coast..


She's already halfway onshore. She's slowly moving NW, right along the NHC's track. Sorry.
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