Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Interesting comments here for sure:
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT HOMES AND BUSINESSES. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ENCOURAGES RESIDENTS VOLUNTARILY TO EVACUATE. THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY REMAINS OPEN TO ACCEPT RESIDENT EVACUEES. EVACUATING RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO SEEK SHELTER NORTH OF ORLANDO IF THEY CHOOSE NOT TO STAY AT THE
DESIGNATED SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY...
A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER FOR ALL MOBILE HOME DWELLERS AND SPECIAL NEEDS
CLIENTS WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 6 AM EDT SATURDAY. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL MAKE A DECISION REGARDING MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL KEYS RESIDENTS ON SATURDAY MORNING.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT HOMES AND BUSINESSES. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ENCOURAGES RESIDENTS VOLUNTARILY TO EVACUATE. THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY REMAINS OPEN TO ACCEPT RESIDENT EVACUEES. EVACUATING RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO SEEK SHELTER NORTH OF ORLANDO IF THEY CHOOSE NOT TO STAY AT THE
DESIGNATED SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY...
A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER FOR ALL MOBILE HOME DWELLERS AND SPECIAL NEEDS
CLIENTS WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 6 AM EDT SATURDAY. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL MAKE A DECISION REGARDING MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL KEYS RESIDENTS ON SATURDAY MORNING.
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http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early2.png
<img src="http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png">
<img src="http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png">
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- DESTRUCTION5
- Category 5
- Posts: 4423
- Age: 43
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
- Location: Stuart, FL
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:TampaFl wrote:Some models have shifted more northlyThoughts and comments welcomed.
Robert![]()
Not the important ones Rob
And which ones ARE the important ones?
I understand the GFS and GFDL are fairly well relied upon..
The UKMET has also come north, a bit.
As has the Canadian.
Maybe the NOGAPS hasn't moved much north.
The overall consensus has definitely moved north in the 12z and 18z runs today.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/com ... 18/M5.html
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- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
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- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
CronkPSU wrote:DESTRUCTION5 wrote:TampaFl wrote:Some models have shifted more northlyThoughts and comments welcomed.
Robert![]()
Not the important ones Rob
which ones are the important ones? the GFS and GFDL which have both had some horrible runs lately?
Ignore the BAMs, LBAR, XTRAP, and any of the climo models (like AH98E). Keep tabs on the GFDL, ECMWF, GFS, UKMET. Canadian is pretty bad with tropical systems. NAM is terrible with most weather systems and particularly bad with tropical systems.
The slower Wilma tracks over the next few days, the deeper the jet will be digging toward and into the NE Gulf of Mexico by late this weekend. That's a pretty strong cold front pushing south into the Gulf by Sunday afternoon. Could turn Wilma nearly due E-ENE.
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- Category 5
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- johngaltfla
- Category 5
- Posts: 2069
- Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:17 pm
- Location: Sarasota County, FL
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wxman57 wrote:
Ignore the BAMs, LBAR, XTRAP, and any of the climo models (like AH98E). Keep tabs on the GFDL, ECMWF, GFS, UKMET. Canadian is pretty bad with tropical systems. NAM is terrible with most weather systems and particularly bad with tropical systems.
The slower Wilma tracks over the next few days, the deeper the jet will be digging toward and into the NE Gulf of Mexico by late this weekend. That's a pretty strong cold front pushing south into the Gulf by Sunday afternoon. Could turn Wilma nearly due E-ENE.
I don't know if you've seen the latest animations for the GFS and GFDL and they are indicating more of a NE route; cutting through South Sarasota County to the Port Charlotte area with 120+ winds....
If you've seen them, I'd love to hear your comments, because these trends of the globals moving northward is disturbing to some of us.
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation[/url]
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- Emmett_Brown
- Category 5
- Posts: 1432
- Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:10 pm
- Location: Sarasota FL
From the looks of the latest loop, Wilma's weakening trend has begun in earnest. Eye now half on land, and gulping dry air.
Threat to FL now dwindling by the hour IMO. Especially with a strong cold front progged to move 2/3 down the state of FL
on Sunday.
No way she gets to the state any more than a cat 1 IMO, and when she does, she wont be fully tropical.
Threat to FL now dwindling by the hour IMO. Especially with a strong cold front progged to move 2/3 down the state of FL
on Sunday.
No way she gets to the state any more than a cat 1 IMO, and when she does, she wont be fully tropical.
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