Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[dld]

wow, this is going to get interesting.....I can't wait for the 11pm advisory. I'm not sure the NHC knows now what it is going to do yet. It's confusing everybody.

if this stays like it is what will this mean for florida?

[O Town]

I definatley see the west wobble.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

Check the check boxes for lat/lon lines and trop fcst pts for reference. You may be seeing what looks like the NW eye-wall eroding a bit, but she still looks pretty good, and pretty north so far.

I went to the link posted by Ricky above, to the enlarged image animated. It doesnt look like the eye wall eroding at all just looked like a took a jump to the west. It was IR not vis though. Eye wall could be eroding just not seeing it on that loop. The darn noaa floaters take foever to load on my computer, but I do look at thier still images.

[gatorcane]

we are seeing a W wobble but how many wobbles will have? If it wobbles more N then I would think a change at the 11pm

[CHRISTY]

yes very interesting at 11:00 . this north movement may keep it of shore..

[storms in NC]

If you were to stand on the wall to your left it would be going west..

[johngaltfla]

I think something of more importance than watching the wobbles would be to watch the overall cloud and convection pattern of the storm. If you look now it looks like it is more elongated from SSW to NNE. Possibly a hint of her future track. She may be feeling some tug at this time. Nothing definite yet, but one thing is for sure. Tonight and tomorrow will be a critical times for Wilma and her future here in the sunshine state.

I saw the same thing in the last loop. If she's elongating a bit, the N-NNE move could occur sooner.

And that would be bad.

[WindRunner]

00Z models:

328
WHXX01 KWBC 220039
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE WILMA (AL242005) ON 20051022 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051022 0000 051022 1200 051023 0000 051023 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.7N 86.8W 21.5N 87.7W 22.3N 88.5W 23.0N 88.9W
BAMM 20.7N 86.8W 21.5N 87.7W 22.0N 88.3W 22.3N 88.7W
A98E 20.7N 86.8W 21.4N 87.2W 22.2N 87.7W 23.5N 87.6W
LBAR 20.7N 86.8W 21.8N 87.3W 23.1N 87.3W 25.2N 85.9W
SHIP 120KTS 121KTS 120KTS 116KTS
DSHP 120KTS 88KTS 65KTS 66KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051024 0000 051025 0000 051026 0000 051027 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.1N 88.1W 30.1N 79.1W 43.1N 64.7W 49.2N 47.6W
BAMM 22.8N 88.0W 26.3N 78.8W 37.0N 63.9W 40.2N 37.3W
A98E 24.7N 86.4W 30.0N 78.5W 39.6N 62.7W 34.9N 41.5W
LBAR 28.3N 82.5W 38.6N 64.7W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 106KTS 76KTS 33KTS 0KTS
DSHP 57KTS 29KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.7N LONCUR = 86.8W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 20.1N LONM12 = 86.4W DIRM12 = 328DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 19.1N LONM24 = 85.8W
WNDCUR = 120KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 125KT
CENPRS = 930MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 175NM RD34SE = 175NM RD34SW = 120NM RD34NW = 150NM

[truballer#1]

new gfdl

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

[Brent]

new gfdl

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

Landfall in Cape Cod and Maine.

[mtm4319]

I'm definitely seeing an erosion of the NW eyewall.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... im8ir.html

[El Nino]

I think something of more importance than watching the wobbles would be to watch the overall cloud and convection pattern of the storm. If you look now it looks like it is more elongated from SSW to NNE. Possibly a hint of her future track. She may be feeling some tug at this time. Nothing definite yet, but one thing is for sure. Tonight and tomorrow will be a critical times for Wilma and her future here in the sunshine state.

Definitely agree with that judgement. Convection band on the NE side are taking a rapidly E'ly route and convection has spinned around from N to S and then go back to the East. I really think that W Cuba and FL hava to worry about that, but maybe I'm completely wrong.
What is sure is that Wilma is on right on the forecast and she'll probably stay less time inland IF she goes inland !

[Opal storm]

Severe winds over a longer period of time, expect worst damage than we saw from Andrew and Katrina.

I agree.Areas of the NE Yucatan have been in the western eyewall for hours now.

[CHRISTY]

if you speed up the floater you can clearly see this north movement continueing...

[gatorcane]

look at Wilma's size. She is shrinking rapidly.

[curtadams]

She's not "wobbling", she's refusing to move on shore. The eye has been right against the coast for 5 hours straight. That's too much for coincidence. The worst of the nastier eyewall is slowly moving over Cancun now...

[Brent]

Severe winds over a longer period of time, expect worst damage than we saw from Andrew and Katrina.

I agree.Areas of the NE Yucatan have been in the western eyewall for hours now.

and will be for much of the rest of the night.

[mtm4319]

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

From 23:45 to 00:15, straight west.

[johngaltfla]

new gfdl

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

Oh my God. That puts a 120+ mph storm on top of my head.

[El Nino]

So still a cat3 hurricane for parts of Florida, but mostly cat2. And some nice weather for Miami too

[O Town]

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

From 23:45 to 00:15, straight west.

Thanks now I know I am not crazy.