TD 27,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#281 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 8:53 am

We have a longer visible loop now. Clearly, there is no center where near the satellite estimate position by that nocturnal burst of convection. If there is anything at all, then it's up near 15N/68W and moving rapidly to the west. Convection is decreasing once-again, as well. It's possible the plane could find a small area of SSW-SW wind of 5-15 kts from 68W-69W and 14N-15N, but it may confirm that there's no circulation at all.

#282 Postby **Blown Away** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 8:54 am

Wouldn't catch my eye either. However, the NHC puts the center near 14.6 / 66.4 which is rate where the deep reds are.

#283 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 9:03 am

Blown_away wrote:Wouldn't catch my eye either. However, the NHC puts the center near 14.6 / 66.4 which is rate where the deep reds are.

It's impossible to find the center on such a weak system using IR imagery, so the NHC was just making a guess as to where it might be. Clearly, they were wrong. High-res visible shows that if there is a weak LLC, it's farther west out ahead of the convection.

CHRISTY · #284 Postby **CHRISTY** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 9:06 am

so then no gamma....

#285 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 9:06 am

All we have to do is to wait for the plane to get there and see what they find one way or another so in around 3 hours we will know.

#286 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 9:13 am

cycloneye wrote:All we have to do is to wait for the plane to get there and see what they find one way or another so in around 3 hours we will know.

Yes, we wait for the plane. I'm waiting for my own plane. Heading out of Charleston, SC to DC then Houston at 11:30am, so I won't find out what the plane finds until I get to Houston around 4pm. Of course, my plane is scheduled to land almost exactly when that squall line hits Houston. Just last week, my plane from Atlanta was re-routed to Dallas when a twin-engine plane crashed on the runway as we were making our approach into Houston Hobby airport. I'll probably end up in Dallas again today....

StormFury · #287 Postby **StormFury** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 9:15 am

This area of convection has been persistent for the last few days with phases of weakening and intensification. Sheer is decreasing and most importantly...if convection like this can stay alive for this long with warm SST's and decreasing sheer...THEN something most likely WILL DEVELOP!!!!!!!!

#288 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 9:15 am

wxman57 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:All we have to do is to wait for the plane to get there and see what they find one way or another so in around 3 hours we will know.

Yes, we wait for the plane. I'm waiting for my own plane. Heading out of Charleston, SC to DC then Houston at 11:30am, so I won't find out what the plane finds until I get to Houston around 4pm. Of course, my plane is scheduled to land almost exactly when that squall line hits Houston. Just last week, my plane from Atlanta was re-routed to Dallas when a twin-engine plane crashed on the runway as we were making our approach into Houston Hobby airport. I'll probably end up in Dallas again today....

Have a safe trip.

StormFury · #289 Postby **StormFury** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 9:16 am

Besides, the Carribean Sea is the most favorable area for development this time of the year. If anything forms, it will most likely be in the Carribean.

CHRISTY · #290 Postby **CHRISTY** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 9:38 am

#291 Postby **skysummit** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 9:40 am

I just don't see much there....maybe two different areas of possible LLC? I wouldn't be surprised if it's downgraded to a wave later today, but who knows. I'm sure it'll get a shot in the next day or so.

CHRISTY · #292 Postby **CHRISTY** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 9:45 am

honestly i think shear is winning right now..with lower shear ahead of it there maybe nothing left but scattered convection.

Website · #293 Postby **Brent** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 9:55 am

I don't see much there either... IF Recon finds a circulation it's going to be barely closed and very weak.

#294 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 10:01 am

estimated center

#295 Postby **Blown Away** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 11:22 am

If the system survives:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
I think a track similar to this one maybe more of a sharper NE turn and track over central Cuba through SE Bahamas then out to sea.

#296 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 12:18 pm

Latest track on Navy site has storm recurving toward the YP channel! :

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Website · #297 Postby **Brent** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 12:27 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:Latest track on Navy site has storm recurving toward the YP channel! :

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

If it doesn't do something soon, there isn't going to be anything left when it gets there.

DESTRUCTION5 · #298 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 12:31 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:Latest track on Navy site has storm recurving toward the YP channel! :

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Looks more like a Stall and Were clueless to me...

#299 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 12:31 pm

Brent wrote:
dixiebreeze wrote:Latest track on Navy site has storm recurving toward the YP channel! :

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

If it doesn't do something soon, there isn't going to be anything left when it gets there.

It seems to be organizing a little better than early this morning -- maybe.

#300 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 12:34 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:
Brent wrote:
dixiebreeze wrote:Latest track on Navy site has storm recurving toward the YP channel! :

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

If it doesn't do something soon, there isn't going to be anything left when it gets there.

It seems to be organizing a little better than early this morning -- maybe.

Dixie I'm not sure exactly where the center is but, if it is near the nhc's and the dvorak estimate then we have covection almost around the center...

We will find out soon where the fix on the center is from recon.

TD 27,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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