TD GAMMA,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Forecaster Colby]

Interesting.

000
URNT12 KNHC 191805
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/17:43:30Z
B. 16 deg 14 min N
085 deg 12 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 50 kt
E. 10 deg 076 nm
F. 039 deg 046 kt
G. 010 deg 077 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 19 C/ 212 m
J. 25 C/ 214 m
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF300 0427A GAMMA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 46 KT NW QUAD 17:06:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

A 6-degree thermal eyewall? WTF?

[cycloneye]

Interesting.

000
URNT12 KNHC 191805
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/17:43:30Z
B. 16 deg 14 min N
085 deg 12 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 50 kt
E. 10 deg 076 nm
F. 039 deg 046 kt
G. 010 deg 077 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 19 C/ 212 m
J. 25 C/ 214 m
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF300 0427A GAMMA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 46 KT NW QUAD 17:06:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

A 6-degree thermal eyewall? WTF?

You can comment about the recon data at thread below.



http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 14&start=0

[Forecaster Colby]

K.

Anyway, remember the models (UKMET & GFS) that kept it in the SW carib yesterday? The ones we said we on crack? That actually seems possible...regeneration #3 once the shear does down?

[wxman57]

The weak LLC is now fully exposed and very visible. I put it near 16.2/85.0. Satellite looks indicate a nearly due east movement at about 10 kts. Convection continues to move farther away to the north. Heaviest squalls are now 140 miles NNE of the center. It's a real stretch calling Gamma a TS.

Edit: Actually, as of 2PM CST, the heaviest squalls are 200 miles from the center at a heading of 37 degrees.

[wxman57]

Here's the new model plot. I removed all but the dynamic models. Note the shift to the right. Might be shifting more right next few runs. But I think Gamma may be dead before it reaches Cuba.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gamma13.gif">

[Rainband]

We should see more from the pre frontal squall line than from Gamma

[mike815]

Yeah that squall line could be nasty spc has central fl penisula flaged for severe late sun. Mon.

[Rainband]

Yeah that squall line could be nasty spc has central fl penisula flaged for severe late sun. Mon.

I saw that. Last I looked it was <<slight>> but severe weather is a possibilty..especially with the cold front squall line. Mariners better heed the warning as well. Waterspouts are possible if not likely as well.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The weak LLC is now fully exposed and very visible. I put it near 16.2/85.0. Satellite looks indicate a nearly due east movement at about 10 kts. Convection continues to move farther away to the north. Heaviest squalls are now 140 miles NNE of the center. It's a real stretch calling Gamma a TS.

Edit: Actually, as of 2PM CST, the heaviest squalls are 200 miles from the center at a heading of 37 degrees.

That is not true...The recon has found 49 knot winds to support the storm as a tropical storm. It doe's not matter if there is convection over the LLC it matters more by the strength of the LLC. Fact is theres tropical storm one minute winds.

[mike815]

Yeah and its the day 3 outlook they normally dont do that unless something is going to come out of it another low is forcasted to develope ahead of the cold front.

[mike815]

Yeah it is still a TS a very weak on though.

[f5]

not much hope for Gamma its the start of wind shear season aren't we glad

[gatorcane]

center is drifting due E...very weak steering currents for the next 24-48 hours

[wxman57]

The weak LLC is now fully exposed and very visible. I put it near 16.2/85.0. Satellite looks indicate a nearly due east movement at about 10 kts. Convection continues to move farther away to the north. Heaviest squalls are now 140 miles NNE of the center. It's a real stretch calling Gamma a TS.

Edit: Actually, as of 2PM CST, the heaviest squalls are 200 miles from the center at a heading of 37 degrees.

That is not true...The recon has found 49 knot winds to support the storm as a tropical storm. It doe's not matter if there is convection over the LLC it matters more by the strength of the LLC. Fact is theres tropical storm one minute winds.

Actually, the conversion from 1500 feet is 70%. 70% of 49 kts is 34 kts. And that wind was in a squall quite a long distance removed from the center. Since that recon report, squalls have diminished, so calling Gamma a TS is a real stretch.

[f5]

center is drifting due E...very weak steering currents for the next 24-48 hours

she may pull a Lenny

[gatorcane]

Lenny? It's possible but it's looking like an ENE move out through Cuba, the Bahamas and into the Atlantic...

if Gamma survives....

[mike815]

it will there keep it the way it is it will doesnt matter.

[P.K.]

Actually, the conversion from 1500 feet is 70%. 70% of 49 kts is 34 kts. And that wind was in a squall quite a long distance removed from the center. Since that recon report, squalls have diminished, so calling Gamma a TS is a real stretch.

They weren't high though, only at 200m.

Yesterday senorpepr quoted Stacy Stewart as saying

Stacy Stewart wrote:
we use the same recon-to-surface wind conversion
values of 90% at 9,000-10,000 ft, 80% at 1500 ft and 5,000 ft, and 75%
at 2500 ft"

I'm getting confused at the moment as to which conversion rates are correct.

[wxmann_91]

Gamma looks dead if it isn't already. LLC is very close to the coast of Honduras it seems, well removed from the convection to the north.

[f5]

Gamma is fighting 20-30 knot shear due to that high over aruba .if she enters the gom she is toast there is wide area of 80 knot shear in the northern gulf