Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

[jkt21787]

one other thing, its a fairly large storm, so a strike on S FL...and about all the peninsula gets a taste...so everyone in FL needs to watch this thing

very true, much of the FL peninsula could see some affects as it continues to grow, though it may only be in the form of increased cloudcover

[CronkPSU]

The BAMD did very well on Katrina, they all have ther moments!

has LBAR ever had its moments???

[hicksta]

Has the gfdl or gfs updated yet?

[jkt21787]

Has the gfdl or gfs updated yet?

They won't be updated until later tonight, not done until even after the 11 PM advisory.

[gatorcane]

The convection over the last couple of hours is firing at least 75+ miles north of the NHC center...could we see another LLC form farther north under this convection....?

[vaffie]

At the risk of looking totally ignorant.....I will ask this question.

If the BAMM model is so bad at forecasting tropical systems.......WHY is it used??????????????


--Lou

The BAM models are initialized off the AVN model. This is why they're useful: They factor in something that none of the others do--called the "beta effect", which says that because a storm is in the northern hemisphere, if the steering currents are weak, it will drift northward because of the coriolis effect. There are three of them BAMS, BAMM, and BAMD for shallow, medium, and deep. If a storm is weak, it is pushed more by shallow winds, if it is really strong by upper-level winds. BAMD, therefore, was good with Katrina, because the steering was weak, and it was a very strong storm so the deep winds were guiding it towards New Orleans. In this case, I expect Rita will be very powerful, so following where the BAMD puts it will be more valuable in the days ahead, but because steering currents are NOT weak, it would be better just to look at the global dynamic models--especially AVN, NOGAPS, and GFDL. I especially focus on the GFDL--it is designed exclusively for predicting hurricanes well, while the others are designed for global weather forecasts.
-vaffie

[wxmann_91]

The BAMD did very well on Katrina, they all have ther moments!

has LBAR ever had its moments???

Well, yes, during Emily earlier this year, when many of the models at first were taking it northward toward Hispaniola, LBAR was the only one that took it south, which ended up being right.

(BTW EMILY GRAPHIC NOT RITA GRAPHIC!!!)

[THead]

Rita is looking very good this evening and has shown rapid organization since the 5pm advisory. In addition recon calculated a NW movement and a center that has relocated farther north.

The situation continues to become more dire for South Florida and the FL Keys...

The NW movement was actually based on the relocation.

It will go back to WNW and eventually W once the relocation of the LLC is complete, probably later tonight.

I'm not sure I understand what you mean that NW movement is based on relocation. Are you saying it isn't moving NW and that the NHC just put it at NW cause the center relocated NW of where it was? If so, that doesn't make sense to me, because even after relocation, it would still be moving the direction of the previous advisory. So if it was still moving W, they would have said so........wouldn't they?

[canegrl04]

"It would be nice to get some rain from Rita,though"



Definitely. We are bone dry around Dallas. I've got cracks in the ground at my house that are as wide as 3 inches ,and about 2 1/2 feet deep

[gatorcane]

I'm not sure I understand what you mean that NW movement is based on relocation. Are you saying it isn't moving NW and that the NHC just put it at NW cause the center relocated NW of where it was? If so, that doesn't make sense to me, because even after relocation, it would still be moving the direction of the previous advisory. So if it was still moving W, they would have said so........wouldn't they

exactly.

[jkt21787]

Rita is looking very good this evening and has shown rapid organization since the 5pm advisory. In addition recon calculated a NW movement and a center that has relocated farther north.

The situation continues to become more dire for South Florida and the FL Keys...

The NW movement was actually based on the relocation.

It will go back to WNW and eventually W once the relocation of the LLC is complete, probably later tonight.

I'm not sure I understand what you mean that NW movement is based on relocation. Are you saying it isn't moving NW and that the NHC just put it at NW cause the center relocated NW of where it was? If so, that doesn't make sense to me, because even after relocation, it would still be moving the direction of the previous advisory. So if it was still moving W, they would have said so........wouldn't they?

The NW "jump" that is very evident on the graphics, especially if you look at the Wunderground graphic. That "jump" northwest is because of relocation. Its still not completely done, so it may relocate/move more NW before resuming WNW to W as an actual movement. This will probably begin to take place overnight.

[jrod]

. With such a strong ridge expected how could some of the models (LBAR & NHCA98E)start going up the FL E coast all of a sudden?? How could they not see the ridge?

THe models are iffy. My guess is they picked up on the north movement between the 5pm and 8pm and ran with that.

[TS Zack]

Yes, they wouldn't just put NW to make themselves look right. Maybe the center is moving NW to relocate under the deep convection.

They wouldn't do that just to make themselves look right.

[ROCK]

At the risk of looking totally ignorant.....I will ask this question.

If the BAMM model is so bad at forecasting tropical systems.......WHY is it used??????????????


--Lou

The BAM models are initialized off the AVN model. This is why they're useful: They factor in something that none of the others do--called the "beta effect", which says that because a storm is in the northern hemisphere, if the steering currents are weak, it will drift northward because of the coriolis effect. There are three of them BAMS, BAMM, and BAMD for shallow, medium, and deep. If a storm is weak, it is pushed more by shallow winds, if it is really strong by upper-level winds. BAMD, therefore, was good with Katrina, because the steering was weak, and it was a very strong storm so the deep winds were guiding it towards New Orleans. In this case, I expect Rita will be very powerful, so following where the BAMD puts it will be more valuable in the days ahead, but because steering currents are NOT weak, it would be better just to look at the global dynamic models--especially AVN, NOGAPS, and GFDL. I especially focus on the GFDL--it is designed exclusively for predicting hurricanes well, while the others are designed for global weather forecasts.
-vaffie

nice sum up....

[jkt21787]

Yes, they wouldn't just put NW to make themselves look right. Maybe the center is moving NW to relocate under the deep convection.

They wouldn't do that just to make themselves look right.

Well yes, that is in essence what is happening. The center is moving NW to align with the MLC, not a classic reformation I guess where one dissipates and the other forms. So, a movement to the NW is rather valid I guess.

But again this is temporary. Once it finishes, we should be back on WNW and eventually later on, W.
"A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
LATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...RITA WILL BE MOVING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY."

[THead]

Yes, they wouldn't just put NW to make themselves look right. Maybe the center is moving NW to relocate under the deep convection.

They wouldn't do that just to make themselves look right.

Well yes, that is in essence what is happening. The center is moving NW to align with the MLC, not a classic reformation I guess where one dissipates and the other forms. So, a movement to the NW is rather valid I guess.

But again this is temporary. Once it finishes, we should be back on WNW and eventually later on, W.
"A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
LATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...RITA WILL BE MOVING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY."

At this point, even it were to move due west from where it is right now, S. Fla would be getting some weather for sure, depending on her intensity of course. Looks like Rita is going to be opposite of Katrina in one way, north side the strongest in the early stages.

[jrod]

Ive flipped flop all night on where this storm will go. But looking at the WV loop, the storm should eventually go on a W or even WSW track. That is if the flow remains the same for the next few days.

I do think CFL will see some nasty weather from this one. Against the forecasts and all but I am starting to see signs of an approaching storm here.

[jkt21787]

Yes, they wouldn't just put NW to make themselves look right. Maybe the center is moving NW to relocate under the deep convection.

They wouldn't do that just to make themselves look right.

Well yes, that is in essence what is happening. The center is moving NW to align with the MLC, not a classic reformation I guess where one dissipates and the other forms. So, a movement to the NW is rather valid I guess.

But again this is temporary. Once it finishes, we should be back on WNW and eventually later on, W.
"A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
LATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...RITA WILL BE MOVING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY."

At this point, even it were to move due west from where it is right now, S. Fla would be getting some weather for sure, depending on her intensity of course. Looks like Rita is going to be opposite of Katrina in one way, north side the strongest in the early stages.

Absolutely. There is no doubting that. S FL is in trouble.

[Brent]

Ive flipped flop all night on where this storm will go. But looking at the WV loop, the storm should eventually go on a W or even WSW track eventually. That is if the flow remains the same for the next few days.

LOL... I thought up til about 3 hours ago it would miss the Keys and maybe even landfall in Cuba, now I'm wondering if it might be north of Miami...

[HURAKAN]

Rita, please, be mercyful of me. I don't want to be 5 days without electricity like during Katrina.