Hurricane Emily Advisories

[cycloneye]

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0900Z 12.3N 62.3W 80 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 13.0N 64.7W 85 KT
24HR VT 15/0600Z 14.0N 68.0W 90 KT
36HR VT 15/1800Z 15.2N 71.5W 95 KT
48HR VT 16/0600Z 16.4N 75.0W 100 KT
72HR VT 17/0600Z 19.0N 82.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 18/0600Z 21.0N 88.0W 90 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 19/0600Z 22.5N 92.5W 100 KT


5 AM from yesterday had Emily a bit more stronger after Yucatan

[Ivanhater]

yep they did forecast it to re intensify, dont know why derek thought they didnt

[stormie_skies]

Thank you guys, for posting those .... I should have thought of it, would have saved me a lot of words!

[Ivanhater]

where did derek go? i want to know why he said nhc NEVER forecasted emily to re intensify in the gom

[jkt21787]

NHC did forecast reintensification after reaching the Gulf, so that can't be denied.

We're just going to have to wait and see what happens next with Emily, and she if she can survive this road bump. She survived her ordeal a few days ago so its likely she'll survive this one. I wouldn't be surprised to see this go back to a cat 2 though before this happens.

[mf_dolphin]

where did derek go? i want to know why he said nhc NEVER forecasted emily to re intensify in the gom

Well the obvious thing is that he made a mistake. Nobody's perfect.....

[wx247]

Just because Avila doesnt say what you want him to, doesnt mean that he's the wors. In fact, he's by far the best one at NHC and he doesnt hype everything ino a cat 7

I disagree Derek... and it isn't because he isn't saying what I want him to. Do you think I want this to develop into a monster? Of course not! I just think that the discussion should be a little clearer. I like forecasters who actually discuss things versus just putting the advisory in paragraph form.

[Ivanhater]

well everyone makes mistakes, but he has been wrong a lot, and most people who say something and are wrong on this board come back and admit their mistake, i have a problem with people making a comment, making it sound like a fact when many people trust him and doesnt come back to correct it

[Derek Ortt]

they indicated a whole 5-10KT. Thats not significant intensification, basically steady state

I was driving into the office

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM AST FRI JUL 15 2005

...EMILY WEAKENS A LITTLE BIT MORE AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD
TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST OR ABOUT 395
MILES...635 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

EMILY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR BUT A
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...EMILY WILL BE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OR VERY NEAR
JAMAICA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY STILL IS A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.

EMILY MAY PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. EMILY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER JAMAICA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...14.5 N... 72.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 969 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

393
WTNT35 KNHC 151749
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM AST FRI JUL 15 2005

...EMILY WEAKENS A LITTLE BIT MORE AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD
TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST OR ABOUT 395
MILES...635 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

EMILY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR BUT A
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...EMILY WILL BE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OR VERY NEAR
JAMAICA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY STILL IS A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.

EMILY MAY PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. EMILY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER JAMAICA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...14.5 N... 72.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 969 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

[Derek Ortt]

point out where I have been wrong a lot

off by a whole 20 miles on the Dennis landfall?

By correctly predicting this weakening?

How about everyone who thinks they can do better put your money where your mouth is and make a forecast and know that it is not just for fun

[Ivanhater]

hmm how about cindy had about a .00000001% chance of developing.... you make these comments as they are fact, many people trust your forecasts on this board and i would hope you would be a little more careful, im studying to be a meteorologist and i know you just dont go around making comments like that, im not just trying to point out your faults cause we all have them, but i have a problem with people making comments like they are facts and then dont come back and correct them

[donsutherland1]

Mf_dolphin,

Good point.

To be fair, with so much going on, it is probably quite a challenge for anyone to remember every detail of every forecast. Thus, anyone can make an error in his or her recollection. Hopefully, people will understand that anyone can make such errors and recognize that there's no need whatsoever to judge these mistakes in an overly harsh fashion.

[Derek Ortt]

you are obviously new

you weren't around for my Charley appology last year for blowing the lf, you havn't read any of the nwhhc verification points

as for Cindy, thatw as for the initial SW carib blob, which clearly did not develop. it was the wave behind it, which I said repeatedly had potential

yes, I know that in this field that the mistakes are more remembered that the times when you are correct. But do try and be a bit objective

[Ivanhater]

your missing my point, you jumped on a poster and accused him of -removed- because he pointed out the wording of a nhc forecaster, you jumped right on him and said he was wrong when he was actually right, now you dont like it when people point out your mistakes which i agree everyone will be wrong at some point, but i ask that you try to refrain from making comments that seem to be fact because a lot of people think whatever you say must be right, whether that is right or wrong, thats the way it is, and accusing people of -removed- for pointing out differences in forecasts doesnt help anything,

i will say we all value you opinions on this board greatly

[Derek Ortt]

those who were saying this would bomb in the GOM were -removed-, or not basing their forecasts on the met data. What data suggests RI in the GOM at the present time? The NHC forecasts had a very minor amount of intensification.

Things could change as they have started to do now with the latest sat signature and recon reports. However, when nearly all models show little intensification, then that cannot be taken lightly

[deltadog03]

Ok, calm down my friends...lol...here is a curve ball for ya derek....Clearly the ridge is there in the gulf....BUT, that shortwave means business and its pushing SE towards the TX coast...I really don't think the models are handeling the SW trof...what do you think?? comments?

[HURAKAN]

Trying to recover from the knockout, Emily's eye is now visible once again but now is much larger. Thereafter, if reintensification is going to occur it should on a slower pace.

[johngaltfla]

you are obviously new

you weren't around for my Charley appology last year for blowing the lf, you havn't read any of the nwhhc verification points

as for Cindy, thatw as for the initial SW carib blob, which clearly did not develop. it was the wave behind it, which I said repeatedly had potential

yes, I know that in this field that the mistakes are more remembered that the times when you are correct. But do try and be a bit objective

Derek, even though I'm new to THIS board, I've been on your website lurking and reading forecasts for a while now. I'll defend anything you post up. And I'll dare anyone to come forward and say "I predicted two hurricanes to reach Cat 4 in July of 2005", because you won't find anyone to say that.

In my honest opinion, as a weather hobbyist ONLY, we are in uncharted territory. Events that we are witnessing now might have happened 300, 400, 1000 plus years ago, but there are no records. So this could be a thousand year, five hundred year, five thousand year cycle. There is no way to tell.

I for one want to thank and give my appreciation to all of the forecasters.

Anyone -removed- for a storm obviously hasn't been in any of them. And all the Cat 1's I've been in were enough for me. I have not one ounce or iota of my soul that would ever "wishcast" for a major hurricane to hit my area. I have many friends 30 miles south of me still dealing with Charley's impact and they will be for another year.

Thank you again. I now get off my soapbox and return you to your normal hurricane forecasting and -removed-.