Hurricane Katrina

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...KATRINA SLOWLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE
...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO
SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY TO ENGLEWOOD...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
6 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST OR ABOUT
30 MILES... 45 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND AND ABOUT 70 MILES... 115 KM...EAST OF FT. LAUDERDALE
FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOUR. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER INTO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY...AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AND KATRINA COULD REACH CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE THE
CENTER REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. AN AUTOMATED OBSERVING STATION AT
SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 43 MPH WITH A GUST TO 50 MPH...AND FREEPORT ON GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND ALSO REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 MPH.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...26.2 N... 79.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[wxwatcher91]

what the heck? still 50mph? are they seeing something I'm not or am I seeing something they're not... because I see a storm with a lot more convection than it had and one that is organizing pretty steadily...

[HURAKAN]

Luis, do you think, as I do, that Katrina is probably a little more stronger than what the NHC estimates? Probably around 60 - 65 mph?

Also, is the RECON arriving at 10 or will depart at 10 to investigate Katrina?

[superfly]

what the heck? still 50mph? are they seeing something I'm not or am I seeing something they're not... because I see a storm with a lot more convection than it had and one that is organizing pretty steadily...

Convection does not always mean higher winds. Dvorak and pressure both indicate around 40-50kt winds.

[cycloneye]

Luis, do you think, as I do, that Katrina is probably a little more stronger than what the NHC estimates? Probably around 60 - 65 mph?

Also, is the RECON arriving at 10 or will depart at 10 to investigate Katrina?

Mission will depart around 9:30 AM.

[Trader Ron]

The NHC has been saying Katrina is getting better organized for 24 hrs.

Time is starting to run out, she better hurry up.

[Derek Ortt]

was on a conference call and recon may be departing earlier

[tronbunny]

Stewart's on deck.
He's very good at the "wait and see".

[cycloneye]

was on a conference call and recon may be departing earlier

Ok thank you for the info.

[HURAKAN]

25/1145 UTC 26.2N 79.2W T3.5/3.5 KATRINA -- Atlantic Ocean



GO KATRINA!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wahooooo!!!

[jpigott]

what does dorvak 3.5 translate into as far as windspeed and pressure

[cycloneye]

what does dorvak 3.5 translate into as far as windspeed and pressure

3.5 55 KTS 63 MPH 994 mb

[cycloneye]

251435
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...KATRINA GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TOWARD SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...BIMINI...AND THE BERRY ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
THE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE
...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO
SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY TO ENGLEWOOD...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT
55 MILES... 85 KM... EAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER SHOULD
BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BEFORE THE
CENTER REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. AN AUTOMATED OBSERVING STATION AT
SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 33 MPH.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE ALSO
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. STORM SURGE
VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE BAHAMAS LATER TODAY.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...26.2 N... 79.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM EDT AND 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005
1500Z THU AUG 25 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...BIMINI...AND THE BERRY ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
THE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE
...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO
SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY TO ENGLEWOOD...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 79.3W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 79.3W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 79.0W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 26.2N 80.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.2N 81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 26.3N 82.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 26.7N 83.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 28.1N 84.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 30.5N 84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 34.0N 82.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 79.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

FORECASTER STEWART

[Brent]

[gatorcane]

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR

6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS

. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER SHOULD

The longer over the 90F Gulf stream the more this will intensify

[storms in NC]

WOW look at that cone.

[Patrick99]

Just not that much of a pressure drop. 997mb isn't much to write home about.

[Brent]

Just not that much of a pressure drop. 997mb isn't much to write home about.

It's also estimated.