Franklin Advisories

[wxman57]

Here's a new shot from 1754Z / 12:54pm CDT. Franklin's center began shooting off to the north an hour ago. This could be a dying gasp, as it's heading into high shear:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/franklin25.gif">

[Andrew92]

Goodbye Franklin!

[dhweather]

Franklin will join Emily very soon.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005

...FRANKLIN SLOWLY WEAKENING...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 70.9 WEST OR ABOUT
365 MILES... 585 KM... WEST OF BERMUDA.

FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH
...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH... 85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...31.4 N... 70.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

[cycloneye]

KNHC 242032
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005
2100Z SUN JUL 24 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 70.9W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 75SE 60SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 100SE 75SW 25NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 70.9W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 71.3W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 31.9N 69.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 75SE 60SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 32.5N 67.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 33.3N 66.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 33.9N 65.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 35.5N 63.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 38.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 41.0N 55.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 70.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005

NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE STORM...AND THE
LOW-CLOUD CENTER IS EXPOSED...OR NEAR THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF A RAGGED
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY...THE LOW-CLOUD LINES APPEAR
TO HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS WELL DEFINED. CURRENT INTENSITY IS
SET AT 45 KT FOLLOWING LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB MIAMI.
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STRONG SHEAR WILL
PERSIST...SO CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT. THE CYCLONE IS PREDICTED
TO BE DISSIPATING OVER COLDER WATERS BY 120 HOURS...AND IF THE
SHEAR CAUSES EVEN MORE VERTICAL DECOUPLING OF THE SYSTEM...IT COULD
DISSIPATE SOONER THAN THAT. HOWEVER...THESE SHEARED TROPICAL
CYCLONES HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO BE TENACIOUS.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/8. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING AWAY FROM FRANKLIN WITH A DAY OR SO. THIS
WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS. HOWEVER MOST OF THE TRACK
MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR
NORTHEASTWARD TO KEEP FRANKLIN FROM BEING BLOCKED BY A RIDGE THAT
IS PREDICTED TO BUILD NEAR BERMUDA IN SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF AND JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 31.4N 70.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 31.9N 69.4W 45 KT
24HR VT 25/1800Z 32.5N 67.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 26/0600Z 33.3N 66.4W 40 KT
48HR VT 26/1800Z 33.9N 65.4W 35 KT
72HR VT 27/1800Z 35.5N 63.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 28/1800Z 38.0N 60.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 29/1800Z 41.0N 55.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING

[wxman57]

I think that the NHC's 21Z position and intensity are a bit questionable. Franklin hasn't moved any to the east since 15Z. The center is drifting northward while the convection is ripped away. 18Z Dvorak estimates are 2.5, or 35 kts, and that's probably because they assumed the center was beneath the convection. Clearly, we have a sheared TD here with one squall detached from the low-level swirl. Question is, will Franklin recover (the storm not the forecaster)?

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/franklin26.gif">

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It doe's not always mean its a tropical depression. It has more to do with how strong the LLC/wind field is. But since it is naked it will likely weaken or spin down.

[wxman57]

I believe it's already spun down, Matt. I doubt that winds around that swirl are more than 15-25 kts. There are just 1-2 thunderstorms left southeast of the center. It's clearly a TD not a TS. Take a look at a WV image, nothing but "black" entering the LLC.

Here's another shot 30 minutes later. Still not east of 71W.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/franklin27.gif">

[ALhurricane]

Thanks for the nice images wxman57.

I agree that 45kts is much too generous. I've been watching the storm most of the day and it is clear it is not moving much east and is probably a 20-25kt TD. Unless convection can generate near the center fairly soon (shear is still preventing that) than Frankling, the storm not the forecaster, is going to exit stage right fairly soon.

[wxman57]

Looks like the center drifted a little west this hour. It's also more detached from the squalls to the southeast:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/franklin28.gif">

[cycloneye]

Without any doubt this is a TD now.

[drezee]

looking at the 12 hour zoomed visible loop from GHCC...Franklin has moved SW the last hour or two

[Agua]

Where's the 8 p.m. advisory?

[JamesFromMaine2]

theres no watches or warnings so it only comes out at 5am 11am 5pm and 11pm

[Agua]

theres no watches or warnings so it only comes out at 5am 11am 5pm and 11pm

Ahhhhhhh...... Thanks. Did not realize that.

[wxman57]

Nearest convection is now about 120 miles southeast of the center and moving away. Center did a cyclonic loop and is now near 31N/71.4W and moving back to the east.

[Thunder44]

0z models initalized Frank moving at 200 degrees, which is SSW

[Ivanhater]

Nearest convection is now about 120 miles southeast of the center and moving away. Center did a cyclonic loop and is now near 31N/71.4W and moving back to the east.

i dont see it moving back east

[wxman57]

Nearest convection is now about 120 miles southeast of the center and moving away. Center did a cyclonic loop and is now near 31N/71.4W and moving back to the east.

i dont see it moving back east

Maybe more SE than E. Looks to be near 31N/71.3W now. Was at 31.4/71.5. It's becoming more broad with time. Hardly qualifies for a TD now with no convection within 120-150 miles of the center. Just a remnant swirl.