Tropical Storm Ophelia

[Thunder44]

the bouys have sampled enough of the storm to clearly indicate that this is most likely not a 70KT storm.

the pressure has zero bearing on whether or not its a hurricane or a TS, 10 meter wind speed is the sole determining factor

The pressure suggests the winds are stronger. You don't use just one piece of data, you can use several pieces of data to determine the intensity of a hurricane.

[Derek Ortt]

and pressure is NOT one of them

it is the pressure gradient. Any dynamics course will teach one that. Pressure ifself is not a force and simple physics states that a force is needed to cause an acceleration

[n.c sunshine]

Local T.V just reported 96 mph wind gust at a bouy off of Wilmington N.C

[UpTheCreek]

Whether or not this is a hurricane seems to be splitting hairs, but splitting hairs is what this forum is all about in my opinion. FWIW, we are to be hit square with this thing and for now it feels like it's a tropical storm. And yes, this tropical storm could very well do more damage to us than Isabel did only for it's speed of movement.

I think it's important for the pros here to get the official categorization of this storm right if only for history's sake. Who really wants it officially going down in the books as a hurricane when it's really not?

[Derek Ortt]

that gust shows what is going on

the winds seem to have problems making it through the boundary layer, as Frying Pan Shoals is about 100 feet above the water

[n.c sunshine]

Derek ? Does that mean that the 96mph wind gust would not make it down to the surface.

[dekeoy]

Frying Pan Tower is not reporting winds. That facility has been not been maintained in a number of years and is scheduled for demolition. The new bouy is at water level, and can be seen here.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41013

And if the information shown is correct, as of 8:50 am, it seems that the buoy is now in the eye.

[no advance]

In my opinion every storm has its own little characteristics. You can analize it senseless. I know one thing about this storm it will be a very wet and windy day in east North Carol.

[x-y-no]

that gust shows what is going on

the winds seem to have problems making it through the boundary layer, as Frying Pan Shoals is about 100 feet above the water

Anemometer height for Station 41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy is 5 meters.

[Okibeach]

Just got the generator up and running. I dont have an anemometer but have been through enough storms and can say that we aremost likely experiencing hurricane force winds. Oak Island is probably as close as you can get to the western edge of the eyewall right now via radr obs. Huge tree that is now covering my back yard can also attest to it.

[Jim Hughes]

And let me add:

"Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance and NOAA land-based
Doppler radars indicate maximum sustained winds have increased to
near 80 mph with higher gusts. Ophelia is a category one hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some slight strengthening is still
possible during the next 24 hours before landfall occurs."

From 8am advisory. So much for blackberry.

Land-based Doppler radars CANNOT measure surface winds except for within 5-10 miles of the radar. The Earths' curvature means that those radar beams are passing about 5000-10,000 feet above the surface at Ophelia's location. So that Doppler radar is measuring flight level winds, not surface winds.

Now, keep in mind that I'm not broadcasting my opinions over the airwaves to the general public. This is simply an online discussion group. I would not have told everyone to stay on the beaches, this is nothing to worry about. I'm simply stating facts about actual observations as the storm passes various reporting points. And those facts do not support Ophelia being classified as a hurricane.

Show me an actual surface MEASUREMENT of wind speeds 65 kts or greater, please.

Have to go back to work now.

My question to you would be doesn't this probably happen more often than the average Joe thinks? Storms are given higher actual winds....Some storms have more recon data ....land base related...bouy data ...etc... Or am I wrong here.


Jim

[sponger]

Wow so much dabate over ts vs hurricane. If Wxman and Ortt say it is below that is good enough for me. I agree the NHC will play it safe (as they should) Not a whole lot of difference to those on the ground as many gusts will exceede h force anyway.

[UpTheCreek]

Wow so much dabate over ts vs hurricane. If Wxman and Ortt say it is below that good enough for me. I agree the NHC will play it safe (as they should) Not a whole lot of difference to those on the ground and many gusts will exceede h force anyway.

Couldn't agree more!!!

[Okibeach]

Wow so much dabate over ts vs hurricane. If Wxman and Ortt say it is below that good enough for me. I agree the NHC will play it safe (as they should) Not a whole lot of difference to those on the ground and many gusts will exceede h force anyway.

Have to agree with sponger about not making a whole lot of difference to those experiencing it, strong ts or low end cat1, but understand the pro mets work with numbers.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Im My eyes when that Eywall comes ashore its landfall but officiallt its not untill the center Center of Circ comes ashore...Does anyone think this will make it...?

[Jim Hughes]

While I respect the pros opinions here, I believe it's enough this is a hurricane by looking at the current pressure of the storm, satellite and radar images. I don't dispute the obs, but one or two buoy doesn't cover the entire storm, nor can you really measure every square inch of the storm. One thing I've learned about hurricanes is that everywhere around the eye are the maxium sustained that TPC reports. It's only the maximun as well not the minimum. And it's really moot to be splitting hairs with this storm when it's about the make landfall.

Well the NHC is the Official Opinion and it says that Ophelia has increased her wind speed by 10 mph since 3pm yesterday so my outlook calling for a 10 mph intensification before the 5pm discussion today/landfall.... DID OCCUR.

I use historical data that they provide for making my space weather based intensity forecast. So until they say it's less than 80 mph , it is not.

I am intersted in what wxman57 is saying because similar conditios were present around Bonnie's time also. So this was not me pointing out an example. This particular storm was brought up by someone else.

I will try and post something later with data ...comments ...etc.


Jim

[Jim Hughes]

Wow so much dabate over ts vs hurricane. If Wxman and Ortt say it is below that is good enough for me. I agree the NHC will play it safe (as they should) Not a whole lot of difference to those on the ground as many gusts will exceede h force anyway.

Well I have a history in the Washington DC area of stirring up debates within the meteorolgical community when it comes to events that I have forecasted. How bad etc....

Some people have said that I am just being paranoid...you are seeing it first hand here. I have only been here about 8 weeks but I have yet to see this kind of public criticism against the NHC by the experts. Why this storm?

Some people questioned Katrina's high winds but the debate never reached this level nor it's openess.

You be the judge. BTW wxman57 excluded ....he was pointing this out a couple of days ago....to closed ears.


Jim

[UpTheCreek]

I am a complete layman when it comes to all weather, but being just a casual (and perhaps more objective) observer to all this debate, could it be that it can mostly be blamed on this slow moving and sometimes erratic behavior of this particular storm? Maybe the longer this thing hangs around, it's beginning to be "the thing that wouldn't leave", kind of like a mother-in-law!!!

Interesting debate nonetheless!

[skysummit]

Here's a GRLevel3 capture showing a weather station getting 77mph sustained winds gusting to 102mph.

[jasons2k]

In my opinion every storm has its own little characteristics. You can analize it senseless. I know one thing about this storm it will be a very wet and windy day in east North Carol.

Excellent point - just like a snowflake, they are all Unique, just like Katrina's strongest quad. was the SE (not NE) side.