TD GAMMA,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[DESTRUCTION5]

Does the Ukie have no grasp on Gamma at all? Have not seen one run...

[mike815]

Does any one have a grasp on this storm. it kinda reminds me of Tammy a bit.

[aerojad]

Updated Gamma image of mine which you can see here - latest NHC forecast track with a current satellite overlay.

Looks like the southern tip of Florida will be taking a lashing by something, even if it is only a mid-range tropical storm.

I'm really interested to see what sort of impact this storm will have on the developing Nor'Easter for the Thanksgiving holiday further up the coast.

images

[krysof]

Updated Gamma image of mine which you can see here - latest NHC forecast track with a current satellite overlay.

Looks like the southern tip of Florida will be taking a lashing by something, even if it is only a mid-range tropical storm.

I'm really interested to see what sort of impact this storm will have on the developing Nor'Easter for the Thanksgiving holiday further up the coast.

images

The gfs is really showing that scenario but they have the low well inland which would have all the precipitation rain but the 0z has the low further to the east.

[aerojad]

Well, again I'm thinking this is going to wind up looking like a comma, which means rain on the north and east sides, so there will be at least a few hour shot of some heavy rains and gusty winds.

[krysof]

Well, again I'm thinking this is going to wind up looking like a comma, which means rain on the north and east sides, so there will be at least a few hour shot of some heavy rains and gusty winds.

it will combine with a monster low which may produce a huge storm

[aerojad]

Well, again I'm thinking this is going to wind up looking like a comma, which means rain on the north and east sides, so there will be at least a few hour shot of some heavy rains and gusty winds.

it will combine with a monster low which may produce a huge storm

but that's well after it bypasses Florida.

That's more toward the end of day 5, as it races up toward Cape Hatteras.

[DESTRUCTION5]

New GFDL? Late?

[JamesFromMaine2]

lol I know I have said this before tonight but could it be trying to develop a eye? on normal IR you can't see it but on the TMI multi sens. you can see a clear area well yellow area totally surrounded by red which looks like could be a eye wall and inflow going into it.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Looking healthier tonight...Maybe a 60 MPH storm now..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Forecaster Colby]

*cough* Predicted diurnal max strengthening *cough*

I love my work

[Forecaster Colby]

Quite a wind field!

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles... 165 km
mainly to the north from the center.

[Jevo]

OMG Category 7 END OF THE WORLDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD

RUN FOR YOUR LIVES

lol get a grip

[mike815]

No its cat. 8 Now lol just need to calm down a wee bit.

[Jevo]

No its cat. 8 Now lol just need to calm down a wee bit.

lol when local Met Brian Norcross says" Folks nothing we need to get worked up about" Im ok

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Just think if Gamma out runned the shear like Charley,Wilma. In Gamma bombed...Might not be likely but its worth watching for.

[JamesFromMaine2]

19/0545 UTC 16.3N 85.6W T2.5/2.5 GAMMA -- Atlantic Ocean

[P.K.]

WHXX01 KWBC 190600
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA (AL272005) ON 20051119 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051119 0600 051119 1800 051120 0600 051120 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.7N 86.1W 18.2N 86.7W 20.5N 86.8W 23.9N 85.1W
BAMM 16.7N 86.1W 17.2N 87.2W 18.0N 88.3W 19.2N 89.2W
A98E 16.7N 86.1W 17.4N 86.7W 18.1N 86.8W 19.3N 86.1W
LBAR 16.7N 86.1W 17.8N 86.3W 19.8N 86.2W 22.3N 85.3W
SHIP 40KTS 41KTS 38KTS 33KTS
DSHP 40KTS 41KTS 38KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051121 0600 051122 0600 051123 0600 051124 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.3N 81.0W 37.8N 66.2W 45.4N 57.1W 59.4N 57.5W
BAMM 21.4N 88.7W 28.9N 76.4W 39.0N 69.6W 47.5N 67.5W
A98E 20.5N 84.8W 22.8N 79.3W 27.7N 70.1W 29.8N 63.0W
LBAR 25.6N 82.7W 31.3N 70.6W 29.4N 59.5W .0N .0W
SHIP 26KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 24KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.7N LONCUR = 86.1W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 85.6W DIRM12 = 316DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 15.9N LONM24 = 84.8W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 90NM

[Cookiely]

Gamma is to the right of the forecast tracks this morning. Hopefully this continues and there won't be much of a threat to South Florida.

[wxman57]

Gamma is to the right of the forecast tracks this morning. Hopefully this continues and there won't be much of a threat to South Florida.

Yes, I noticed that, Cookiely. That's a good sign for Florida. Also, the center is still displaced to the south of the convection, another good sign. I am beginning to feel a little more confident that Florida will see very little of Gamma as it zips by just to the south as a ripped-apart storm on Monday.

I'll post some high-res McIdas images from work today.