The 21Z advisory has Franklin's storm wind radii significantly expanded. There's a healthy region of 50+ knot winds southeast of the center per the TPC.
- Jay
KSC FL
Franklin Advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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Andrew92
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- Age: 40
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- Location: Phoenix, Arizona
Franklin has changed little in satellite imagery since the last
recon report around 17z. An 850 mb flight-level wind of 63 kt was
reported about 50 nmi south of the center at 1543z...and subsequent
dropsonde wind proflies elsewhere suggest that the Standard 80
percent reduction factor may be too high and that using 100 percent
may be more representative. Given that the central pressure had not
fallen below 1000 mb all day...the initial intensity will be
maintained at 60 kt for this advisory. Wind radii were expanded to
the southeast based on the recon wind and dropsonde data.
The initial motion estimate is 060/08. Franklin has been moving
steadily to the northeast and east-northeast for the past 12 hours
or so as the mid-level flow to the west of the cyclone has become
west to west-northwesterly. The new 12z model guidance creates
something of a quandary with the track forecast. The shortwave
trough currently along the U.S. East Coast is forecast by all the
models to lift out to the northeast of Franklin and leave at least
a well-defined mid-level circulation behind by 36-48 hours. After
that...the mid-level circulation is forecast to remain nearly
stationary and then drift south or southwestward by 96 hours...
while the low-level circulation moves northeastward. If Franklin
remains intact at 72 hours...then the southward motion is quite
possible given that all the models indicate the mid-level flow will
gradually become northwesterly and then northerly. The official
forecast is slower and to the right of the previous forecast...
and a little slower than the GUNS and GUNA models.
Franklin could still become a 65-kt hurricane within the next 24
hours before increasing northerly upper-level shear starts to
affect the cyclone. Even if the cyclone does turn southward...the
upper-level shear is expected to remain unfavorable for any
significant intensification to occur until after 72 hours when the
200 mb flow is forecast to weaken and a small anticyclone moves
across the system.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 23/2100z 29.9n 74.3w 60 kt
12hr VT 24/0600z 30.4n 73.0w 65 kt
24hr VT 24/1800z 30.8n 71.5w 65 kt
36hr VT 25/0600z 31.2n 69.6w 60 kt
48hr VT 25/1800z 31.4n 68.0w 55 kt
72hr VT 26/1800z 32.1n 65.3w 50 kt
96hr VT 27/1800z 33.5n 62.5w 45 kt
120hr VT 28/1800z 35.0n 59.5w 40 kt
$$
recon report around 17z. An 850 mb flight-level wind of 63 kt was
reported about 50 nmi south of the center at 1543z...and subsequent
dropsonde wind proflies elsewhere suggest that the Standard 80
percent reduction factor may be too high and that using 100 percent
may be more representative. Given that the central pressure had not
fallen below 1000 mb all day...the initial intensity will be
maintained at 60 kt for this advisory. Wind radii were expanded to
the southeast based on the recon wind and dropsonde data.
The initial motion estimate is 060/08. Franklin has been moving
steadily to the northeast and east-northeast for the past 12 hours
or so as the mid-level flow to the west of the cyclone has become
west to west-northwesterly. The new 12z model guidance creates
something of a quandary with the track forecast. The shortwave
trough currently along the U.S. East Coast is forecast by all the
models to lift out to the northeast of Franklin and leave at least
a well-defined mid-level circulation behind by 36-48 hours. After
that...the mid-level circulation is forecast to remain nearly
stationary and then drift south or southwestward by 96 hours...
while the low-level circulation moves northeastward. If Franklin
remains intact at 72 hours...then the southward motion is quite
possible given that all the models indicate the mid-level flow will
gradually become northwesterly and then northerly. The official
forecast is slower and to the right of the previous forecast...
and a little slower than the GUNS and GUNA models.
Franklin could still become a 65-kt hurricane within the next 24
hours before increasing northerly upper-level shear starts to
affect the cyclone. Even if the cyclone does turn southward...the
upper-level shear is expected to remain unfavorable for any
significant intensification to occur until after 72 hours when the
200 mb flow is forecast to weaken and a small anticyclone moves
across the system.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 23/2100z 29.9n 74.3w 60 kt
12hr VT 24/0600z 30.4n 73.0w 65 kt
24hr VT 24/1800z 30.8n 71.5w 65 kt
36hr VT 25/0600z 31.2n 69.6w 60 kt
48hr VT 25/1800z 31.4n 68.0w 55 kt
72hr VT 26/1800z 32.1n 65.3w 50 kt
96hr VT 27/1800z 33.5n 62.5w 45 kt
120hr VT 28/1800z 35.0n 59.5w 40 kt
$$
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WeatherEmperor
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139722
- Age: 67
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
240239
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005
0300Z SUN JUL 24 2005
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 72.9W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 70SE 60SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 100SE 75SW 20NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 72.9W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 73.4W
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 30.9N 71.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 75SE 75SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.5N 69.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 75SE 75SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 32.0N 68.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 75SE 75SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 32.5N 67.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 75SE 75SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 33.5N 64.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 75SE 75SW 30NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 35.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 38.5N 56.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N 72.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z
FORECASTER AVILA
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005
0300Z SUN JUL 24 2005
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 72.9W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 70SE 60SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 100SE 75SW 20NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 72.9W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 73.4W
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 30.9N 71.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 75SE 75SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.5N 69.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 75SE 75SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 32.0N 68.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 75SE 75SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 32.5N 67.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 75SE 75SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 33.5N 64.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 75SE 75SW 30NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 35.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 38.5N 56.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N 72.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z
FORECASTER AVILA
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139722
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005
...FRANKLIN A LITTLE WEAKER...
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST OR ABOUT
500 MILES... 800 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH
...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES
...130 KM FROM THE CENTER.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...30.3 N... 72.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005
...FRANKLIN A LITTLE WEAKER...
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST OR ABOUT
500 MILES... 800 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH
...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES
...130 KM FROM THE CENTER.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...30.3 N... 72.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139722
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
WTNT41 KNHC 240255
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005
LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS OF
FRANKLIN ARE BECOMING DETACHED. THERE IS A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION
...RESEMBLING AN EYEWALL...MARKING A WELL DEFINED MIDDLE LEVEL
CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD LINES SHOW A SURFACE CENTER
DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS CENTER LOCATION IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE LATEST RECON FIX. THIS DECOUPLING HAS BEEN THE SCENARIO
FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS...MAINLY BY THE GFS... DURING THE PAST
DAY OR SO.
THE CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE HAS NOT IMPROVED AND IN FACT...IT
LOOKS LESS ORGANIZED THAN EARLIER TODAY...AND THE MINIMUM PRESSURE
IS ABOUT 1003 MB. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 55 KNOTS. THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FRANKLIN IS BRINGING STRONG
SHEAR...SO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS NO LONGER INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. ONLY THE NOGAPS MODEL SHOWS THAT THE
UPPER-TROUGH WILL BYPASS FRANKLIN QUICKLY...LEAVING WEAKER SHEAR
AND A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
FRANKLIN IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST ABOUT 10 KNOTS. FRANKLIN COULD ACCELERATE A LITTLE
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE STEERING FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. THEREAFTER...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND FRANKLIN IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. AT
LONGER RANGES...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH FRANKLIN AND THE
CYCLONE SHOULD THEN INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AGAIN. ALL THESE
SMALL CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AWAY FROM
THE UNITED STATES.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0300Z 30.3N 72.9W 55 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 30.9N 71.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 31.5N 69.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 32.0N 68.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 26/0000Z 32.5N 67.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 27/0000Z 33.5N 64.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 28/0000Z 35.0N 61.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 29/0000Z 38.5N 56.0W 30 KT
Now it is not forecast to become a hurricane.
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005
LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS OF
FRANKLIN ARE BECOMING DETACHED. THERE IS A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION
...RESEMBLING AN EYEWALL...MARKING A WELL DEFINED MIDDLE LEVEL
CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD LINES SHOW A SURFACE CENTER
DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS CENTER LOCATION IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE LATEST RECON FIX. THIS DECOUPLING HAS BEEN THE SCENARIO
FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS...MAINLY BY THE GFS... DURING THE PAST
DAY OR SO.
THE CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE HAS NOT IMPROVED AND IN FACT...IT
LOOKS LESS ORGANIZED THAN EARLIER TODAY...AND THE MINIMUM PRESSURE
IS ABOUT 1003 MB. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 55 KNOTS. THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FRANKLIN IS BRINGING STRONG
SHEAR...SO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS NO LONGER INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. ONLY THE NOGAPS MODEL SHOWS THAT THE
UPPER-TROUGH WILL BYPASS FRANKLIN QUICKLY...LEAVING WEAKER SHEAR
AND A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
FRANKLIN IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST ABOUT 10 KNOTS. FRANKLIN COULD ACCELERATE A LITTLE
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE STEERING FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. THEREAFTER...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND FRANKLIN IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. AT
LONGER RANGES...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH FRANKLIN AND THE
CYCLONE SHOULD THEN INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AGAIN. ALL THESE
SMALL CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AWAY FROM
THE UNITED STATES.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0300Z 30.3N 72.9W 55 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 30.9N 71.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 31.5N 69.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 32.0N 68.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 26/0000Z 32.5N 67.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 27/0000Z 33.5N 64.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 28/0000Z 35.0N 61.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 29/0000Z 38.5N 56.0W 30 KT
Now it is not forecast to become a hurricane.
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Stratusxpeye
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Pebbles
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1994
- Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 1:42 pm
- Location: New Lenox, IL (SW of Chicago)
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 12
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 24, 2005
...Franklin continues east-northeastward...
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 30.5 north... longitude 72.3 west or about
460 miles... 740 km...west-southwest of Bermuda.
Franklin is moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph
...15 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next
24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...100 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Franklin is starting to become disorganized and weakening is
forecast during the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles
...140 km from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb...29.59 inches.
Repeating the 5 am EDT position...30.5 N... 72.3 W. Movement
toward...east-northeast near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 65 mph. Minimum central pressure...1002 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 11 am EDT.
Forecaster Franklin
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 24, 2005
...Franklin continues east-northeastward...
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 30.5 north... longitude 72.3 west or about
460 miles... 740 km...west-southwest of Bermuda.
Franklin is moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph
...15 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next
24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...100 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Franklin is starting to become disorganized and weakening is
forecast during the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles
...140 km from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb...29.59 inches.
Repeating the 5 am EDT position...30.5 N... 72.3 W. Movement
toward...east-northeast near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 65 mph. Minimum central pressure...1002 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 11 am EDT.
Forecaster Franklin
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Pebbles
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1994
- Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 1:42 pm
- Location: New Lenox, IL (SW of Chicago)
Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 12
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 24, 2005
reconnaissance reports up until 06z indicated that Franklin was...at
least to that point...holding its own against northwesterly shear.
Maximum flight level winds during the past several hours were 58
kt...and a dropsonde at 0516z reported 49 kt at the surface in the
southeast quadrant. The last central pressure reported by the
aircraft was back down to 1001 mb. Based on these data...the
initial intensity will be held at 55 kt. Since the aircraft left
the cyclone however...the center has become mostly exposed on the
northwest edge of a small area of cold convection...with a ragged
band located well to the south and southwest of the center. The
next reconnaissance flight this afternoon will likely find a weaker
system.
The motion has been unsteady but a smoothed estimate is 070/8.
There is still considerable uncertainty in the forecast track as
the dynamical models offer widely different scenarios. The UKMET
and NOGAPS maintain a strong cyclone and take it slowly
northeastward on the northwest of a building subtropical ridge.
The other extreme is offered by the GFS...which continues with a
rapid east-northeastward progression of a weak and decoupled
system. I like the idea of a weak and shallow vortex...especially
given current trends and the approach of dry upper-level westerly
flow...as seen in water vapor imagery. However...the GFS seems way
too fast and I have based the official forecast more on the shallow
BAM and FSU superensemble...as well as continuity with the previous
advisory.
The upper environment looks to be very hostile for at least the next
24-48 hours...and if the forecast track is at all correct...
Franklin will be moving over cooler waters by late in the forecast
period. Consequently...a gradual decline is forecast...but the
cyclone could dissipate much more quickly than indicated by the
official forecast.
Forecaster Franklin
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 24/0900z 30.5n 72.3w 55 kt
12hr VT 24/1800z 30.9n 70.8w 50 kt
24hr VT 25/0600z 31.3n 69.2w 45 kt
36hr VT 25/1800z 31.6n 67.8w 45 kt
48hr VT 26/0600z 32.0n 66.5w 40 kt
72hr VT 27/0600z 34.0n 63.5w 35 kt
96hr VT 28/0600z 36.0n 60.0w 30 kt
120hr VT 29/0600z 39.0n 54.5w 25 kt...dissipating
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 24, 2005
reconnaissance reports up until 06z indicated that Franklin was...at
least to that point...holding its own against northwesterly shear.
Maximum flight level winds during the past several hours were 58
kt...and a dropsonde at 0516z reported 49 kt at the surface in the
southeast quadrant. The last central pressure reported by the
aircraft was back down to 1001 mb. Based on these data...the
initial intensity will be held at 55 kt. Since the aircraft left
the cyclone however...the center has become mostly exposed on the
northwest edge of a small area of cold convection...with a ragged
band located well to the south and southwest of the center. The
next reconnaissance flight this afternoon will likely find a weaker
system.
The motion has been unsteady but a smoothed estimate is 070/8.
There is still considerable uncertainty in the forecast track as
the dynamical models offer widely different scenarios. The UKMET
and NOGAPS maintain a strong cyclone and take it slowly
northeastward on the northwest of a building subtropical ridge.
The other extreme is offered by the GFS...which continues with a
rapid east-northeastward progression of a weak and decoupled
system. I like the idea of a weak and shallow vortex...especially
given current trends and the approach of dry upper-level westerly
flow...as seen in water vapor imagery. However...the GFS seems way
too fast and I have based the official forecast more on the shallow
BAM and FSU superensemble...as well as continuity with the previous
advisory.
The upper environment looks to be very hostile for at least the next
24-48 hours...and if the forecast track is at all correct...
Franklin will be moving over cooler waters by late in the forecast
period. Consequently...a gradual decline is forecast...but the
cyclone could dissipate much more quickly than indicated by the
official forecast.
Forecaster Franklin
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 24/0900z 30.5n 72.3w 55 kt
12hr VT 24/1800z 30.9n 70.8w 50 kt
24hr VT 25/0600z 31.3n 69.2w 45 kt
36hr VT 25/1800z 31.6n 67.8w 45 kt
48hr VT 26/0600z 32.0n 66.5w 40 kt
72hr VT 27/0600z 34.0n 63.5w 35 kt
96hr VT 28/0600z 36.0n 60.0w 30 kt
120hr VT 29/0600z 39.0n 54.5w 25 kt...dissipating
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wxwatcher91
- Category 5
- Posts: 1606
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- Contact:
000
WHXX01 KWBC 241201
CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN (AL062005) ON 20050724 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050724 1200 050725 0000 050725 1200 050726 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.8N 71.8W 30.1N 69.9W 29.5N 69.0W 29.3N 68.5W
BAMM 30.8N 71.8W 31.0N 69.9W 31.1N 68.1W 31.4N 66.6W
A98E 30.8N 71.8W 31.4N 69.8W 31.3N 67.8W 31.7N 66.7W
LBAR 30.8N 71.8W 30.9N 69.9W 31.5N 68.1W 32.4N 66.0W
SHIP 55KTS 51KTS 48KTS 47KTS
DSHP 55KTS 51KTS 48KTS 47KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050726 1200 050727 1200 050728 1200 050729 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.3N 68.8W 30.2N 70.8W 32.4N 73.3W 36.0N 72.1W
BAMM 31.7N 65.8W 33.0N 65.7W 34.6N 64.7W 37.0N 60.6W
A98E 32.2N 65.8W 33.3N 64.1W 34.4N 62.2W 37.3N 57.6W
LBAR 33.8N 63.9W 36.2N 59.6W 37.7N 53.0W 37.5N 44.6W
SHIP 45KTS 38KTS 30KTS 19KTS
DSHP 45KTS 38KTS 30KTS 19KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.8N LONCUR = 71.8W DIRCUR = 65DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 30.0N LONM12 = 73.4W DIRM12 = 70DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 29.2N LONM24 = 75.4W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 1001MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 20NM
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Andrew92
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000
WTNT31 KNHC 241431
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005
...FRANKLIN BECOMING DISORGANIZED...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST OR ABOUT 400
MILES... 645 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...30.9 N... 71.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER PASCH
$$
Funny, I didnt think he was becoming disorganized. I thought he already was.
-Andrew92
WTNT31 KNHC 241431
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005
...FRANKLIN BECOMING DISORGANIZED...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST OR ABOUT 400
MILES... 645 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...30.9 N... 71.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER PASCH
$$
Funny, I didnt think he was becoming disorganized. I thought he already was.
-Andrew92
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Andrew92
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- Location: Phoenix, Arizona
000
WTNT21 KNHC 241431
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005
1500Z SUN JUL 24 2005
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 71.4W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 75SE 60SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 100SE 75SW 25NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 71.4W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 71.8W
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.1N 70.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 75SE 60SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 31.5N 68.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 32.0N 67.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 32.5N 66.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 34.0N 64.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 36.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 39.0N 57.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 71.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z
FORECASTER PASCH
$$
WTNT21 KNHC 241431
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005
1500Z SUN JUL 24 2005
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 71.4W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 75SE 60SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 100SE 75SW 25NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 71.4W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 71.8W
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.1N 70.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 75SE 60SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 31.5N 68.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 32.0N 67.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 32.5N 66.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 34.0N 64.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 36.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 39.0N 57.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 71.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z
FORECASTER PASCH
$$
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Andrew92
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000
WTNT41 KNHC 241431
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
GETTING THE BEST OF FRANKLIN. THERE IS AN EXPOSED LOW-CLOUD CENTER
WITH A DISORGANIZED BLOB OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS
SITE INDICATE SIGNIFICANT THAT FRANKLIN WILL BE MOVING INTO
INCREASING SHEAR. WATER VAPOR LOOPS ALSO SHOW A BAND OF VERY DRY
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL AIR PRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO FRANKLIN. CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 55 KT FOLLOWING DVORAK RULES BUT THIS
IS PROBABLY GENEROUS. GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE FACTORS IN THE
ENVIRONMENT...WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
FRANKLIN IS FORECAST TO BE DISSIPATING OVER COOLER WATERS NEAR THE
END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS
DETACHED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD
DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED HERE.
INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 070/8. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS GRADUALLY
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL STORM...SO
STEERING CURRENTS WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDELY VARYING FORECASTS OF FORWARD SPEED...SO
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF VARIOUS POSSIBLE
SCENARIOS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST TRACK.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/1500Z 30.9N 71.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 31.1N 70.1W 50 KT
24HR VT 25/1200Z 31.5N 68.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 26/0000Z 32.0N 67.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 26/1200Z 32.5N 66.4W 40 KT
72HR VT 27/1200Z 34.0N 64.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 28/1200Z 36.0N 62.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 29/1200Z 39.0N 57.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
$$
WTNT41 KNHC 241431
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
GETTING THE BEST OF FRANKLIN. THERE IS AN EXPOSED LOW-CLOUD CENTER
WITH A DISORGANIZED BLOB OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS
SITE INDICATE SIGNIFICANT THAT FRANKLIN WILL BE MOVING INTO
INCREASING SHEAR. WATER VAPOR LOOPS ALSO SHOW A BAND OF VERY DRY
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL AIR PRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO FRANKLIN. CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 55 KT FOLLOWING DVORAK RULES BUT THIS
IS PROBABLY GENEROUS. GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE FACTORS IN THE
ENVIRONMENT...WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
FRANKLIN IS FORECAST TO BE DISSIPATING OVER COOLER WATERS NEAR THE
END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS
DETACHED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD
DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED HERE.
INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 070/8. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS GRADUALLY
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL STORM...SO
STEERING CURRENTS WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDELY VARYING FORECASTS OF FORWARD SPEED...SO
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF VARIOUS POSSIBLE
SCENARIOS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST TRACK.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/1500Z 30.9N 71.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 31.1N 70.1W 50 KT
24HR VT 25/1200Z 31.5N 68.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 26/0000Z 32.0N 67.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 26/1200Z 32.5N 66.4W 40 KT
72HR VT 27/1200Z 34.0N 64.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 28/1200Z 36.0N 62.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 29/1200Z 39.0N 57.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
$$
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Rainband
-
wxman57
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- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Rainband wrote:So why does the National Hurricane Center call it a TS then??wxman57 wrote:Yeah, I'd say 55 kts is a little generous - about 25 kts generous. No way this has any TS force winds around the center. TS winds in a detached blob of convection doesn't qualify for a TS.
They're a generous lot.
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