Hurricane Emily Advisories

[cycloneye]

the Plymouth State Weather Center.
Click here for more tropical weather information.


109
WTNT35 KNHC 150246
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST THU JUL 14 2005

...MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY GAINS MORE STRENGTH...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

AT 11 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF CARACAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM CARACAS
WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF
THE COAST AND WEST OF CARACAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS
WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE
ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE... CURACAO...
AND ARUBA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST OR ABOUT 375
MILES... 600 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 690 MILES...1110 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH
...32 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

DATA FROM A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 125
MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM.

REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IN EMILY HAS BEEN FALLING DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. BASED ON THESE REPORTS...THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES. RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...WITH
ISOLATED 8 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...13.6 N... 67.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 957 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
AST.

FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
0300Z FRI JUL 15 2005

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

AT 11 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF CARACAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM CARACAS
WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF
THE COAST AND WEST OF CARACAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS
WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE
ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE... CURACAO...
AND ARUBA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 67.5W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 30SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 60SE 40SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 100SE 75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 67.5W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 66.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.4N 70.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.7N 73.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.0N 77.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.2N 80.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.5N 86.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 22.5N 91.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 24.5N 95.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 67.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

FORECASTER KNABB

[deltadog03]

ok, so we were at 275 last adv...right?? now 285??hmm

[Brent]

CLOSE to Brownsville Tuesday Evening...

[stormie_skies]

YIKES! We're in the cone of death.....barely, but still in it.... Not cool...

[canegrl04]

Folks down there must be getting very nervous about now

[cccmachine]

Darn is it time for Tom Petty and Free Fallin' again

[Swimdude]

ok, so we were at 275 last adv...right?? now 285??hmm

I'm completely ignorant to what this means in directions... Someone explain?

[gkrangers]

ok, so we were at 275 last adv...right?? now 285??hmm

I'm completely ignorant to what this means in directions... Someone explain?

270 degrees is due west. 275 is slighty north of west, but still pretty much west. 285 degrees is WNW.

[cycloneye]

WTNT45 KNHC 150300
TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

EMILY CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS AT 00Z WERE 6.0
FROM ALL AGENCIES...CORRESPONDING TO AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 115
KT. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
INDICATE THAT THE PRESSURE AND WINDS ARE NOT FAR BEHIND THE
SATELLITE SIGNATURE. THE FIRST FIX AT 2347Z INCLUDED A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 962 MB...DOWN 12 MB FROM ABOUT SIX HOURS EARLIER...AND
A MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 100 KT IN THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. THE PRESSURE HAD FALLEN TO 958 MB AT 0130Z WITH MAXIMUM
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS UP TO 125 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...
SUPPORTING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 110 KT. NOT MUCH SEEMS TO BE
IN THE WAY OF EMILY MAINTAINING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...POSSIBLY
REACHING CATEGORY FOUR...DURING ITS PATH THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE GFDL MAINTAINS A NEAR-120 KT HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS...AND WHILE THE GFDL CURIOUSLY WEAKENS EMILY IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO...THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS A MAJOR HURRICANE BEYOND
72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS SHIPS LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE TOOK A SLIGHT JOG TO THE LEFT...OR SOUTH...OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AN INITIAL
MOTION OF 285/17 SEEMS TO HAVE RESUMED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS ON CONTINUING THIS GENERAL
MOTION. HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY BEYOND THAT TIME...THE OVERALL
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE NORTH.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...BY AN INCREASING AMOUNT BEYOND 48 HOURS...BUT REMAINS ON
THE LEFT SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 13.6N 67.5W 110 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 14.4N 70.1W 115 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 15.7N 73.6W 115 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 17.0N 77.1W 115 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 18.2N 80.2W 115 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 20.5N 86.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 22.5N 91.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 24.5N 95.5W 100 KT

[Brent]

Extending the NHC track brings it ashore 40 miles south of the U.S./Mexico Border around Daybreak Wednesday.

[mvtrucking]

ok, so we were at 275 last adv...right?? now 285??hmm

I'm completely ignorant to what this means in directions... Someone explain?

270 degrees is due west. 275 is slighty north of west, but still pretty much west. 285 degrees is WNW.

If the heading moves another 10 degree's North things would really get interesting.

[hicksta]

Extending the NHC track brings it ashore 40 miles south of the U.S./Mexico Border around Daybreak Wednesday.

how can they do that with the models north of it.. itl change in the morning

[LilNoles2005]

ok, so we were at 275 last adv...right?? now 285??hmm

I'm completely ignorant to what this means in directions... Someone explain?

270 degrees is due west. 275 is slighty north of west, but still pretty much west. 285 degrees is WNW.

300 degress is WNW... 285 is in between due west and WNW..

[Brent]

Extending the NHC track brings it ashore 40 miles south of the U.S./Mexico Border around Daybreak Wednesday.

how can they do that with the models north of it.. itl change in the morning

NHC doesn't make drastic changes in case the models flip flop back to the south on the next runs.

[AJC3]

ok, so we were at 275 last adv...right?? now 285??hmm

I'm completely ignorant to what this means in directions... Someone explain?

Here's the whole directional schpiel...

Maybe someday this can be stickied or referenced somewhere on the site.

NHC Directional Reference in degrees:

North 350-010 (True North 360)
NNE 015-030 (True NNE 022.5)
NE 035-055 (True NE 045)
ENE 060-075 (True ENE 067.5)
East 080-100 (True East 090)
ESE 105-120 (True ESE 112.5)
SE 125-145 (True SE 135)
SSE 150-165 (True SSE 157.5)
South 170-190 (True South 180)
SSW 195-210 (True SSW 202.5)
SW 215-235 (True SW 225)
WSW 240-255 (True WSW 247.5)
West 260-280 (True West 270)
WNW 285-300 (True WNW 292.5)
NW 305-325 (True NW 315)
NNW 330-345 (True NNW 337.5)

[gkrangers]

ok, so we were at 275 last adv...right?? now 285??hmm

I'm completely ignorant to what this means in directions... Someone explain?

270 degrees is due west. 275 is slighty north of west, but still pretty much west. 285 degrees is WNW.

300 degress is WNW... 285 is in between due west and WNW..

WNW 285-300 (True WNW 292.5)

Just because there is no WWNW.

[soonertwister]

You must not be familiar with the 64 points of the compass.

Of course there's a WWNW, that's just in the 32 points. But WWWNW is at 275.625 degrees. EVERYONE know that, silly!

[Swimdude]

You must not be familiar with the 64 points of the compass.

Of course there's a WWNW, that's just in the 32 points. But WWWNW is at 275.625 degrees. EVERYONE know that, silly!

Ok now my head hurts.

[Swimdude]

Issued at: 1:38 AM AST 7/15/05 (gateway).


Dangerous hurricane emily reaches category 4 strength over the east-central caribbean sea,

A hurricane watch is in effect for jamaica and for all of the cayman islands.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the northern coast of venezuela from caracas westward to punto fijo, including the offshore islands north of the coast and west of caracas.

A tropical storm warning is also in effect for portions of the southern coast of the dominican republic from punta salinas westward to the dominican republic/haiti border, and for the entire southwestern peninsula of haiti from the dominican republic/haiti border to port-au-prince.

A tropical storm warning is also in effect for bonaire, curacao, and aruba.

Interests elsewhere in the central and western caribbean should monitor the progress of emily.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

At 2 am ast, 0600z, the center of hurricane emily was located near latitude 13.7 north, longitude 68.3 west or about 350 miles, 560 km, south-southeast of santo domingo in the dominican republic and about 635 miles, 1025 km, east-southeast of kingston jamaica.

Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph, 32 km/hr, and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.

Information from an air force reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have continued to increase and are now near 135 mph, 215 km/hr, with higher gusts. Emily is now a category 4 hurricane on the saffir-simpson hurricane scale scale. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles, 55 km, from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles, 205 km.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by a hurricane hunter aircraft was 952 mb, 28.11 inches.

Emily is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the netherlands antilles. Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected over portions of hispaniola, with isolated 8 inch amounts possible. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Repeating the 2 am ast position, 13.7 n, 68.3 w. Movement toward, west-northwest near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds, 135 mph. Minimum central pressure, 952 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 5 am ast.