Tropical Storm Ophelia

[Rainband]

Worst of the weather is "forecasted" to stay offshore.

[jasons2k]

Here is a Hi-Res Rainfall image:

[jasons2k]

Here is where she is in relation to the center I marked at 8:48CDT, the center now is NE of the marker:

(click to open, click again to enlarge)

[skysummit]

I see the same thing on my GR3. It looks to be ever so slightly east of due west.

[CronkPSU]

I see the same thing on my GR3. It looks to be ever so slightly east of due west.

hmmmmmmmmmmmmm......

[feederband]

I see the same thing on my GR3. It looks to be ever so slightly east of due west.

Got to love it.... It just east of west...lol

[f5]

Ophelia wants to looks like Katrina with that big eye

[whereverwx]

Is it me, or is she now moving NNE?!

[NCHurricane]

Is it me, or is she now moving NNE?!

It looks like an easterly component to the northern movement, but it hard to tell (for me anyway) with that ragged eye.

She may miss landfall yet.

Chuck
http://www.nchurricane.com

[oneness]

The Wilmington radar has the storm in pretty much the same place it was about 12 hours ago and doing much the same thing, gyrating around aimlessly with no net motion in any particular direction.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kltx.shtml

[NCHurricane]

I think now you may be right.

I went back thru the archives and picked the ones from 0425Z, 0321Z and 0221Z. Flipped through the tabs (Firefox) and it looks like the eye is elongated and the oval is just rotating around an axis.

But then again, it is late and I'm tired.

BTW, here's the addy if anyone else has a few minutes to waste. Try it yourself. Wilmington Radar Current Archives

I'm going to bed.

Chuck
http://www.nchurricane.com

[superfly]

It's not stationary, it's inching slowly NNE. It's easy to tell overlaying forecast positions and radar on the sat loops.

[JamesFromMaine2]

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ABOUT 30 MILES OFFSHORE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO
SOUND.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT
NORTH OF OREGON INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...AND SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...
INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES
EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF
WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWARD...HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS
REMAIN WEAK...AND AN ERRATIC MOTION IS LIKELY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA
IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES. BECAUSE OF THE SLOW MOTION OF THE HURRICANE AND THE
RELATIVELY LARGE EXTENT OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...THE HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS WILL REACH THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN
BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO 10
FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...32.8 N... 79.0 W. MOVEMENT
...DRIFTING NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$
NNNN

[JamesFromMaine2]

She been drifting north!

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES
EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF
WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWARD...HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS
REMAIN WEAK...AND AN ERRATIC MOTION IS LIKELY.

[oneness]

Eye seems to be getting a bit smaller and the core more approximately circular on the radar.

[oneness]

[/quote]

[Three Blind Mice]

Power out in ILM. Shutting down

[wxman57]

Some of the heavier squalls have hit both Myrtle Beach and Wilmington now, and the highest sustained wind so far has been 30 kts at Wilmington in the past 15 minutes. Highest wind gust only 38 kts at Wilmingon at 0824Z. It's not looking like this is going to be much of a hurricane for Myrtle Beach, as the center won't get much closer to that city and all they've seen is 20-25 kt northerly winds. There's still one band of heavy squalls south of Wilmington, so they may get sustained winds of 35-50 kts when it passes. I seriously doubt if any station will report sustained winds of 55 kts or greater. I just don't think Ophelia has been translating its upper-level winds down to the surface very well at all. But we shall see. The northern eyewall should pass over a number of stations today.

KILM| |140934|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|060|030|037|29.59|999|OVC|Rain
KILM| |140927|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|060|025|037|29.58|999|OVC|Heavy Rain
KILM| |140853|75.9F|73.0F|90.8%|050|025|032|29.60|8|OVC|Light Rain
KILM| |140824|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|050|028|038|29.62|999|OVC|Rain ,
KILM| |140802|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|050|023|033|29.63|999|OVC|Rain ,
KILM| |140753|75.9F|73.0F|90.8%|050|022|029|29.64|999|OVC|Rain ,
KILM| |140744|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|060|019|027|29.64|999|OVC|Light Rain
KILM| |140653|77.0F|73.0F|87.6%|070|017|029|29.67|999|OVC|Rain ,
KILM| |140639|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|070|019|026|29.68|999|OVC|Light Rain
KILM| |140628|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|070|019|026|29.67|999|OVC|Heavy Rain
KILM| |140620|77.0F|73.0F|88.7%|060|018|029|29.68|999|OVC|Rain , Mist
KILM| |140553|77.0F|73.0F|87.6%|070|013|027|29.70|8|OVC|Heavy Rain
KILM| |140525|78.0F|73.0F|83.6%|070|016|023|29.71|999|OVC|
KILM| |140453|77.0F|73.9F|90.3%|060|012|000|29.72|999|OVC|
KILM| |140353|77.0F|73.0F|87.6%|050|014|021|29.75|999|BKN|
KILM| |140333|77.0F|73.0F|88.7%|070|015|023|29.76|999|BKN|
KILM| |140326|77.0F|73.0F|88.7%|070|016|021|29.76|999|BKN|Light Rain , Mist
KILM| |140310|77.0F|73.0F|88.7%|070|018|030|29.77|999|OVC|
KILM| |140253|77.0F|73.9F|90.3%|060|015|022|29.77|6|OVC|Light Rain
KILM| |140239|77.0F|73.0F|88.7%|070|013|026|29.78|999|OVC|Light Rain , Mist
KILM| |140226|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|060|016|023|29.78|999|BKN|Light Rain , Mist


KMYR| |140935|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|340|018|028|29.56|999|OVC|
KMYR| |140915|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|340|021|029|29.56|999|BKN|
KMYR| |140855|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|330|021|030|29.56|7|BKN|
KMYR| |140835|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|340|022|031|29.56|999|BKN|
KMYR| |140815|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|350|022|029|29.57|999|BKN|
KMYR| |140755|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|350|022|034|29.56|999|BKN|
KMYR| |140735|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|350|024|030|29.57|999|OVC|
KMYR| |140715|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|350|023|032|29.56|999|BKN|
KMYR| |140655|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|350|022|028|29.58|999|OVC|
KMYR| |140635|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|350|023|032|29.58|999|BKN|
KMYR| |140615|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|350|021|032|29.60|999|BKN|
KMYR| |140555|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|350|020|029|29.61|999|BKN|
KMYR| |140535|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|350|022|027|29.62|999|BKN|
KMYR| |140515|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|360|022|027|29.63|999|BKN|
KMYR| |140455|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|360|025|028|29.64|999|BKN|
KMYR| |140435|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|360|023|028|29.64|999|BKN|
KMYR| |140415|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|350|023|030|29.65|999|BKN|
KMYR| |140355|75.0F|71.0F|88.6%|360|022|029|29.65|999|BKN|
KMYR| |140335|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|360|022|029|29.67|999|OVC|
KMYR| |140315|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|360|022|028|29.67|999|BKN|
KMYR| |140150|75.0F|71.0F|88.6%|010|021|027|29.70|999|BKN|Light Rain , Mist

[seahawkjd]

Just wondering wx,

Why do you keep saying the 90 percent rule still doesn't apply to this system now that it has a closed eye wall? Is it still hybrid? I just woke up so I'm trying to figure out whats going on this morning lol.

[NCHurricane]

Latest Recon Decoded

Code: Select all

Storm OPHELIA: Observed by AF #300
Storm #16 In Atlantic Ocean
Total Flights For Storm #16: 24
Date/Time of Recon Report: September 14, 2005 08:50:00 Zulu
Position Of The Center: 33 ° 07 ' N 077 ° 49 ' W (33.12° N  77.82° W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700 Millibars: 2930 Meters (Normal: 3011 Meters)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 0 Knots (0 MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured At: N/A Nautical Miles (N/A miles) From Center At Bearing °
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 064 Knots (73.6 MPH) From 114°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 047 Nautical Miles (54.05 Miles) From Center At Bearing 025°
Minimum Pressure: 980 Millibars (28.938 Inches)
Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 9°C (48.2°F) / 3043 Meters
Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 14°C (57.2°F) / 3049 Meters
Dewpoint Temperature / Sea Surface Temperature Inside The Eye: 8°C (46.4°F) / NA°C (NA°F)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED WALL
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: C50
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700 Millibars
Navigational Accuracy Measured At: 0.03 Nautical Miles
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At: 1 Nautical Miles

Other Information:
1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 77 KT SE Quadrant at 07:23:10 Z
2: EYE STILL RAGGED
3: STADIUM EFFECT VISIBLE IN MOONLIGHT SE QUADRANT

Chuck
http://www.nchurricane.com