Tropical Storm Ophelia

[feederband]

982

[Thunder44]

According to recon vortex message. The eye is 35nm wide.

[wxman57]

982

Yep, but FL winds only 72 kts. Under optimal conditions, 72 kts would convert to 65 kts surface wind (72 x 0.9). However, with a storm like this, the conversion factor is probably more like .7 or .8 to get surface winds from 700mb. That would make it a strong TS, assuming strongest winds were found by the plane. It's a borderline hurricane, if that. Center now measures 62 nautical miles across from north-south (72 statute miles). East to west I get 53 nautical miles.

[oneness]

It is drifting slowly northward, though.

If you look at an image from ~7.5 hrs ago you'll find it is in almost the same location though.

[wxman57]

It is drifting slowly northward, though.

If you look at an image from ~7.5 hrs ago you'll find it is in almost the same location though.

Yeah, it's been looping around all day. If it doesn't move soon, then it may begin moving NE tomorrow morning and the center may stay offshore. That upper-level trof is fast-approaching form the west. It's in western TN/KY now.

[Brent]

HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
0300Z WED SEP 14 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO
SOUND.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT
NORTH OF OREGON INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...AND SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...
INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 78.0W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 45SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 250SE 225SW 80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 78.0W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 78.1W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 33.4N 77.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.4N 76.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 35.1N 75.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 35.7N 74.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 38.0N 70.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 42.5N 61.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 47.0N 51.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 78.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005

...OPHELIA NEARLY STATIONARY WITH STRONG RAINBANDS JUST OFFSHORE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO
SOUND.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT
NORTH OF OREGON INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...AND SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...
INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES
EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTH OF
WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA HAS BEEN STATIONARY FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...HOWEVER...A
SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...
STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...AND AN ERRATIC MOTION IS LIKELY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES. BECAUSE OF THE SLOW MOTION OF THE HURRICANE AND THE
RELATIVELY LARGE EXTENT OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...THE HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS WILL REACH THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN
BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO 10
FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH
CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...32.6 N... 78.0 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cjrciadt]

The models are agree somewhat.

[Scorpion]

Stationary! Argh! Just get on shore already!

[Brent]

Stationary! Argh! Just get on shore already!

Seriously...



GO AWAY OPHELIA!

[NCHurricane]

Stationary! Argh! Just get on shore already!

Um, I would prefer it go offshore, thank you very much.

[Brent]

Stationary! Argh! Just get on shore already!

Um, I would prefer it go offshore, thank you very much.

You may get your wish... although it's going to be close to Hatteras.

[Brent]

HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005

THERE HAS BEEN NO INCREASE IN OPHELIA'S WINDS SINCE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PEAK 700 MB WIND OBSERVED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
WAS 76 KT. THE NOAA P3 MEASURED SURFACE WINDS OF 63 KT WITH THE
SFMR AT 2243Z...AND THE NWS/WILMINGTON DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING 85
KT AT 7000 FT. ALL THIS SUGGESTS THAT OPHELIA IS MAINTAINING AN
INTENSITY NEAR 65 KT. HOWEVER...ON THE MOST RECENT PASS THROUGH THE
STORM THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAD FALLEN TO 982 MB...AND THE EYEWALL
HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED ON RADAR DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS STRONG. IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT
OPHELIA WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT PRIOR TO LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH MARGINAL
SSTS SHOULD HELP TO MITIGATE AGAINST ANY RAPID CHANGES.

THERE HAS BEEN VIRTUALLY NO MOTION OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. 00Z
RAOBS AND OFFSHORE DATA FROM THE GULFSTREAM-IV JET SHOW THAT THE
500 MB HIGH THAT HAD BEEN NORTH OF THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED EASTWARD
AND IS NOW LOCATED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS...COUPLED WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES...
SHOULD ALLOW A NORTHERLY MOTION TO RESUME SOON. THIS TROUGH WILL
NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE...
HOWEVER...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN AN EXCRUCIATINGLY LONG
PASSAGE OF THE HURRICANE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SLOW MOTION...COUPLED WITH THE RATHER
LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN EXTENDED
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH WINDS AT OR NEAR HURRICANE
FORCE...OVER MUCH OF THE WARNING AREA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO...BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND
LIES ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE MAJOR MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0300Z 32.6N 78.0W 65 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 33.4N 77.8W 70 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 34.4N 76.9W 70 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 35.1N 75.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 35.7N 74.3W 65 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 38.0N 70.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 42.5N 61.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 19/0000Z 47.0N 51.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[NCWeatherChic]

Stationary! Argh! Just get on shore already!

Can't the Admin. just ban Scorpion from Storm2k? This is insane!

[Andrew92]

Stationary! Argh! Just get on shore already!

Can't the Admin. just ban Scorpion from Storm2k? This is insane!

I would ignore him if I were you. I do agree, however, that his statements are ignorant and insensitive.

EDIT: If you must report, report preferably to a moderator who is currently online.

-Andrew92

[Rainband]

Stationary! Argh! Just get on shore already!

Can't the Admin. just ban Scorpion from Storm2k? This is insane!

I would ignore him if I were you. I do agree, however, that his statements are ignorant and insensitive.

EDIT: If you must report, report preferably to a moderator who is currently online.

-Andrew92

I believe he is saying he is sick of this storm a lot of us are Believe it or not some people like the approach of tropical weather be it the excitement or time off work. That being said we are a tropical weather site and people come here because they enjoy Tropical systems and tracking them. No reason for a ban

[Andrew92]

Stationary! Argh! Just get on shore already!

Can't the Admin. just ban Scorpion from Storm2k? This is insane!

I would ignore him if I were you. I do agree, however, that his statements are ignorant and insensitive.

EDIT: If you must report, report preferably to a moderator who is currently online.

-Andrew92

I believe he is saying he is sick of this storm a lot of us are Believe it or not some people like the approach of tropical weather be it the excitement or time off work. That being said we are a tropical weather site and people come here because they enjoy Tropical systems and tracking them. No reason for a ban

Thanks for the clarification!

Back to Ophelia, which is what this topic is about.

-Andrew92

[SouthFloridawx]

They should be really concerned with flooding at this point this is a slow mover. Looks like some parts may have 20+ inches of total rain when this is done and those bands are gonna keep coming ashore.

[jasons2k]

Few things I've noticed on GRLevel3, the center is tightening and also the system seems to be drifiting slowly to the NE now.

[CronkPSU]

Few things I've noticed on GRLevel3, the center is tightening and also the system seems to be drifiting slowly to the NE now.

good call, maybe MB won't get blasted afterall