Tropical Storm Ophelia

[BensonTCwatcher]

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles from the
center. Ophelia's strongest winds are located relatively far from
the center...roughly 50 to 60 miles. These winds will reach the
coastline well in advance of the center.

Avila is not the only one that needs a vacation, Beven too.

[rant]Probably so, but keep in mind there a quite few doofuses that only find the bulletins a few hours before the wind starts blowing trees onto the houses, who will later find a TV camera and blame the NHC for the hole... I think they put lines in there for those people.[rant/]

[shaggy]

she is really filling in and now new convection firing on the SW side that is sure to rotate around to the east and help wrap in and push out that dry air.Hope she doesn't have any nasty surprises waiting for us!

[CronkPSU]

besides what oneness keeps telling us, it is neither struggling nor is it headed north

http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kltx.shtml

[BensonTCwatcher]

Agreed, looking more like a core has formed back. WOW, very hard for a storm to do that.

Another view

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLocalWide.asp?loc=usncct1973&seg=LocalWeather&prodgrp=RadarImagery&product=RadarLoop&prodnav=none

[sponger]

Looks solid west again. I do not see a North movement.

[seahawkjd]

What I think people have constantly done with this system is looked at what they think is the center moving west when its just the core dying and then trying to reform. It looks like the motion of the actual storm is still nw, though not quite the nnw of the 8am advisory. Remember this still isn't a normal system so normal visual tracking methods are not as accurate. Heck, we can't even agree on where its moving half the time when it has a visible eye

**Disclaimer** I may be completely wrong on this and welcome any criticism, its just an observation.

[txwatcher91]

Is this storm amazing or what. It already has reestablished an inner core.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsd ... PICAL.html

[BensonTCwatcher]

Well, much of the movement of the center at this point is cleearly related to the system re-organizing and tightening. There is clearly inflow now with the storm which was absent for 48 hours or more. This is a much different storm than it was yesterday. The east side appears to benefiting from teh gulf stream moving warmer water under it, and the dry air is not being forced into it from the west since the high is weakening and shifting.

Cat 1 looks like a good call for those who made it.

[txwatcher91]

Do storms usually form a new inner core after it has completely collapsed as fast as this one has?

[Frantastic]

hey txwatcher91 - looks like you are under an inland tropical storm warning - yikes

Tropical Storm Warning
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
542 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005

NCZ029-044-079-090>092-132115-
/X.UPG.KMHX.TI.A.0001.050914T0600Z-050915T0000Z/
/X.NEW.KMHX.TI.W.0001.050914T0900Z-050915T1200Z/
MARTIN-PITT-GREENE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILLIAMSTON...ROBERSONVILLE...
GREENVILLE...SNOW HILL...HOOKERTON...WALLACE...WARSAW...
ROSE HILL...KENANSVILLE...BEULAVILLE...MAGNOLIA...KINSTON...
MAYSVILLE...POLLOCKSVILLE
542 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005

...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO
8 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY HAS ISSUED
AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM
WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY. THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH
IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MINIMAL
HURRICANE WEDNESDAY OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL LIKELY EXPAND INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA AND JONES COUNTY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS OPHELIA MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER JONES AND
DUPLIN COUNTIES WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FROM LENOIR COUNTY
NORTH INTO MARTIN COUNTY.

RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SPORADIC POWER
OUTAGES... FALLEN TREES...MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE...AND DANGEROUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

[RevDodd]

Yep...there'll be lots of folks flipping their picnic tables over at lunchtime...or Ophelia will do it for them tomorrow.

[Rainband]

Interesting storm

[CronkPSU]

924
URNT12 KNHC 131340
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/13:20:10Z
B. 32 deg 11 min N
078 deg 03 min W
C. 700 mb 2993 m
D. 30 kt
E. 48 deg 125 nm
F. 124 deg 066 kt
G. 051 deg 064 nm
H. 989 mb
I. 10 C/ 3047 m
J. 12 C/ 3082 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. OPEN E
M. C18
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.03 / 3 nm
P. AF300 2116A OPHELIA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 66 KT NE QUAD 13:01:50 Z
RADAR INDICATES WEAK EYE STRUCTURE FORMING.
60% COVERAGE. OPEN SE - NE




veeeery interesting

[BensonTCwatcher]

Here's a PIC of miss "Ophelia" powdering her nose ( OK eye)

[bree4bryce]

OMG!!
Or it's the windy guy blowing more force into it.

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
1500Z TUE SEP 13 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO
SOUND...AND FROM SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH
SOUTH CAROLINA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 78.0W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 240SE 225SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 78.0W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 77.9W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 32.9N 78.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 33.9N 77.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.9N 76.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 35.4N 75.7W...INLAND/PAMLICO SOUND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 36.7N 72.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 41.0N 65.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 47.0N 53.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.3N 78.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

FORECASTER STEWART

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005

...OPHELIA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT WOBBLES SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO
SOUND...AND FROM SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH
SOUTH CAROLINA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z... DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA COASTAL DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3
NORTH... LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON
NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...
STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND
OPHELIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE
CENTER. OPHELIA'S STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED RELATIVELY FAR FROM
THE CENTER...ROUGHLY 50 TO 60 MILES...AND THESE WINDS WILL REACH THE
COASTLINE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41004 RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 MPH WITH A GUST TO 58 MPH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA. A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO
8 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
10 INCHES OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH
CAROLINA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...32.3 N... 78.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[SouthFloridawx]

here is the nhc forgetting to put the watch and warning graphics... lol

[oneness]

When I said it was going northward it was going northward and was indeed struggling to be anything more than a tropical storm. It’s ventilating well since and become much more symmetrical. The core is still a mess but it looks like it could get back to hurricane strength soon. It's going to be a big one if it does.

[Rainband]

I wish it would just make it's move.