TD GAMMA,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[mike815]

with this storm so sheared and disorginized the models are kinda useless correct?

[wxman57]

with this storm so sheared and disorginized the models are kinda useless correct?

Actually, the models are in very good agreement with Gamma, they're not useless. Such strong shear means a very well-defined steering current. But they may have difficulty in forecasting the intensity, particularly the GFDL. Though I see the latest GFDL has given up on Gamma strengthening much from its present intensity.

[Air Force Met]

with this storm so sheared and disorginized the models are kinda useless correct?

To an extent. The real reason they are useless is that this system will be so broad it really won't matter where the actual center goes (except for "braggin'" rights) because the main impact will be breezy conditions (TS force gusts) and lots of rain over a wide area. So...if every model is off by 100 miles it really won't make a difference in the weather you experience (unless you are on the northern end of it and don't get nothin').

This is not going to be a typical warm core, tightly wound tropical storm where the good stuff is only found 50 miles around the center. It's going to be an ok-loose wind/rain maker that covers a larger area.

[DESTRUCTION5]

with this storm so sheared and disorginized the models are kinda useless correct?

To an extent. The real reason they are useless is that this system will be so broad it really won't matter where the actual center goes (except for "braggin'" rights) because the main impact will be breezy conditions (TS force gusts) and lots of rain over a wide area. So...if every model is off by 100 miles it really won't make a difference in the weather you experience (unless you are on the northern end of it and don't get nothin').

This is not going to be a typical warm core, tightly wound tropical storm where the good stuff is only found 50 miles around the center. It's going to be an ok-loose wind/rain maker that covers a larger area.

Agree but this storm should have a comet shape as it acellerate ENE Monday...South of FL..Putting the "good winds" in the NE Quad

[wxmann_91]

Any thoughts on the possible phasing of Gamma and a massive trough progged to develop over the southeastern US?

[mike815]

ok yeah it is very broad. i thought that was the case because it will effect a large area. Any one have opionions on any severe weather this might cause?

[wxman57]

Any thoughts on the possible phasing of Gamma and a massive trough progged to develop over the southeastern US?

I think Gamma will be absorbed by the Mid Atlantic storm system on Tuesday and contribute a good bit of energy to the developing nor'easter. Going to be a bad storm for the NE U.S.

[mike815]

yeah i guess it could be the first noreaster. It could get nasty.

[fci]

yeah i guess it could be the first noreaster. It could get nasty.

Ah, it's their turn anyway.

We have had our fair share ( and more!)

[wxman57]

ok yeah it is very broad. i thought that was the case because it will effect a large area. Any one have opionions on any severe weather this might cause?

If the center tracks as currently forecast, it's possible, if not likely, that all squalls will be detached to the north and east. They could miss Florida entirely. Severe thunderstorms would be unlikely in such a high shear environment.

[mike815]

So there will be too much shear. I think it was last winter SPC called for a severe episode in west FL i couldnt figure out why nothing happ. I was told there was too much shear ok thanks.

[wxman57]

One other thing. If we look back at the average forecast error over the past 10 years for sheared, weak storms with little track history then about 70-80% of the time, the early forecasts are too far left. That is, these weak, sheared systems tend to track right of the forecast. So if Gamma follows past forecasts over the past 10 years, then we might expect it to move even farther to the right of the current forecast track, missing Florida entirely.

[Rainband]

I have absolutely zero faith in NHC intensity forecasting this year. They've been decent about track, but gotten totally steamrollered on intensity.

shear

Wilma. Vince. Katrina. Rita.

Your kidding right. There is no comparision

[DESTRUCTION5]

One other thing. If we look back at the average forecast error over the past 10 years for sheared, weak storms with little track history then about 70-80% of the time, the early forecasts are too far left. That is, these weak, sheared systems tend to track right of the forecast. So if Gamma follows past forecasts over the past 10 years, then we might expect it to move even farther to the right of the current forecast track, missing Florida entirely.

Thats no secret here...I almst Guarentee thats whats going to happen.

[mike815]

absolutely no comparision.

[mike815]

Yeah i see this happ. now to im most conserned about the North east right now.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Yeah i see this happ. now to im most conserned about the North east right now.

They will live..Thy get this 15-20 times a year..This will be no different...

[mike815]

I understand that i lived in upstate NY up untill 2 years ago. Ive been in ice storms. Im just saying it could be a nasty noreaster.

[JamesFromMaine2]

Yeah i see this happ. now to im most conserned about the North east right now.

They will live..Thy get this 15-20 times a year..This will be no different...

Theres 3 diffrent storms here that COULD combine to create one huge storm I myself Don't think it will be like a normal winter storm we get all the time! If the 3 storms combine it could create a very bad situation here in the east coast!

[mike815]

yeah it could james im watching this my mom is visting up there.