Tropical Storm Ophelia

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN (AL162005) ON 20050906 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050906 1800 050907 0600 050907 1800 050908 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.7N 78.4W 27.7N 79.4W 28.4N 80.3W 28.8N 80.9W
BAMM 26.7N 78.4W 27.3N 79.1W 27.8N 79.7W 28.2N 80.2W
A98E 26.7N 78.4W 27.0N 78.6W 27.6N 79.0W 28.0N 79.1W
LBAR 26.7N 78.4W 27.3N 78.9W 28.1N 79.3W 28.8N 79.2W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050908 1800 050909 1800 050910 1800 050911 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.1N 81.2W 29.7N 82.1W 30.7N 82.6W 30.8N 82.5W
BAMM 28.4N 80.5W 29.1N 81.4W 30.0N 82.7W 30.4N 83.9W
A98E 28.4N 79.3W 28.8N 79.9W 29.9N 80.5W 31.0N 79.7W
LBAR 29.7N 79.2W 31.2N 77.3W 34.1N 73.2W 35.6N 63.9W
SHIP 54KTS 63KTS 66KTS 64KTS
DSHP 54KTS 63KTS 66KTS 43KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.7N LONCUR = 78.4W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 26.2N LONM12 = 78.5W DIRM12 = 24DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 25.8N LONM24 = 78.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



18:00z Model Guidance.Crawling north at 2 kts right now.Ship has it as a minimal cane.

[fci]

WHXX04 KWBC 061727
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN 16L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 6

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 26.6 78.3 360./ .0
6 26.3 78.5 212./ 4.2
12 26.3 78.8 276./ 2.7
18 26.4 78.9 340./ 1.2
24 26.7 79.1 327./ 3.6
30 26.9 79.4 298./ 3.9
36 26.7 79.6 216./ 2.3
42 26.9 79.6 8./ 1.5
48 27.2 79.6 354./ 3.0
54 27.3 80.1 282./ 4.3
60 27.1 80.5 242./ 4.3
66 27.2 80.8 297./ 3.2
72 27.5 81.3 295./ 5.0
78 27.5 82.0 276./ 6.4
84 27.6 83.1 275./ 9.9
90 27.6 84.4 269./11.2
96 27.7 85.5 273./10.1
102 27.7 86.6 274./ 9.1
108 27.8 87.7 272./10.1
114 28.2 88.9 291./11.8
120 28.7 90.0 295./10.4
126 29.5 90.9 308./11.0

At 60 hours it has it at the same exact place that the two storms in 2004 came in to.
This track differs pretty much from the NHC forecast track by quite a bit.

[fci]

Bre... Im wishcasting this one away for you as well!!

As usual at this time of year, I normally get a ts watch or warning for my birthday present, its on friday.. please dont mess up my birthday TD 16, go play with Maria and Nate!!!!!

Correct me if im wrong, but was not ophelia a name from a Shakespear play... Midsummer nights dream or the Merchant of venice???

Hey Amanzi!

My birthday is 9/9 also.

Happy B-Day!!!!!

[WeatherEmperor]

WHXX04 KWBC 061727
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN 16L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 6

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 26.6 78.3 360./ .0
6 26.3 78.5 212./ 4.2
12 26.3 78.8 276./ 2.7
18 26.4 78.9 340./ 1.2
24 26.7 79.1 327./ 3.6
30 26.9 79.4 298./ 3.9
36 26.7 79.6 216./ 2.3
42 26.9 79.6 8./ 1.5
48 27.2 79.6 354./ 3.0
54 27.3 80.1 282./ 4.3
60 27.1 80.5 242./ 4.3
66 27.2 80.8 297./ 3.2
72 27.5 81.3 295./ 5.0
78 27.5 82.0 276./ 6.4
84 27.6 83.1 275./ 9.9
90 27.6 84.4 269./11.2
96 27.7 85.5 273./10.1
102 27.7 86.6 274./ 9.1
108 27.8 87.7 272./10.1
114 28.2 88.9 291./11.8
120 28.7 90.0 295./10.4
126 29.5 90.9 308./11.0

At 60 hours it has it at the same exact place that the two storms in 2004 came in to.
This track differs pretty much from the NHC forecast track by quite a bit.

thanks for the update on the GFDL. Do you have a graphic map that I can look at for this? Also, do you have the very latest UKMET run?

<RICKY>

[jdray]

nevermind the 123...here's the "WESTWARD" bias of the Euro 7days out with Katrina...Not!

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/biastext.html

ECMWF

Compared to the other 2 operational models described above, the ECMWF does the best in predicting mid/upper tropospheric heights during the colder part of the year(such as October through April). The ECMWF tends to perform quite well in predicting amplitudes of planetary-scale regimes such as the Pacific/North American teleconnection (PNA). This model can also perform outstandingly during low to high planetary-scale wavenumber transition events, and northern hemispheric-scale regime transitions (Berry et al. 1996, CR TM 111).
Outperforms the other medium-range forecast models during shallow cold air situations.
Tends to overdevelop mid/upper cyclones across the southwestern U.S. Situations arise where this model will be too slow to predict the movement of cyclones from the southwest deserts.
Has a slight tendency to forecast mid/upper tropospheric heights and the resultant thickness calculations too high (i.e.; a warm bias).
Sometimes, especially during the warmer portion of the annual cycle, this model has too many closed lows. This bias may be related to its high resolution.
Tends to overamplify the long wave pattern, resulting in slower than observed progression of systems through the westerlies. This can result in overly weak and northward displaced short waves and associated surface features lifting into the long wave ridge position.
Found to have the smallest overall distance errors with springtime closed low forecasts during days four and five.
Westward forecast bias of closed cyclones (related to the issue described above)
Often too slow moving short wave features in deamplifying or zonal patterns
Of the medium range models, the ECMWF performs best with driving Arctic fronts down the east slopes of the Rockies.
The ECMWF too often incorrectly digs closed upper lows SWWD then WWD underneath strong upper ridges over the Eastern Pacific.

care to disagree with what I said anymore?

[deltadog03]

yeah, but, the GFS and other love to have a NORTH bias as well....anyway, before this pointless dissagreement gets out of hand...the bams have shifted west somewhat...I am sorry...this, imo, is heading for the gulf...

[M_0331]

You'all get it figured out , I think I will go get in my deer tree stand.
The deer movement will be a lot faster(better) than TD 16.
My club(10,000 acres) is great place to be with the
weather changing. It is getting real dark with clouds
rolling in from coast.

<EDDIE>

[jdray]

yeah, but, the GFS and other love to have a NORTH bias as well....anyway, before this pointless dissagreement gets out of hand...the bams have shifted west somewhat...I am sorry...this, imo, is heading for the gulf...

agreed on the argument.

But, I dont think this thing is getting fed by the GOM, its a penisula storm.

[Rainband]

yeah, but, the GFS and other love to have a NORTH bias as well....anyway, before this pointless dissagreement gets out of hand...the bams have shifted west somewhat...I am sorry...this, imo, is heading for the gulf...

agreed on the argument.

But, I dont think this thing is getting fed by the GOM, its a penisula storm.

Way to early to say that. Just read this



WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
152 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - THURS)...ALL "EYES" FOCUSED ON DEVELOPING
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO OUR EAST...WHICH IS GRADUALLY GETTING ITS ACT
TOGETHER. THE CENTER REMAINS DIFFUSE AND DISORGANIZED...AND AS OF
THIS WRITING IS BARELY MOVING. HOWEVER...THERE IS PLENTY OF
WESTWARD PUSH TO THE CONVERGENT FEEDER BANDS WHICH ARE
MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

EVENTUAL MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN. BUT ITS CURRENT LOCATION...AND MORNING SATELLITE PHOTOS
AND RAOBS...LEND A CLUE.

FIRST...INTENSITY. OF INTEREST ON SATELLITE ARE FOUR SYSTEMS IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN AND GULF WHICH ALMOST APPEAR "LINKED" TOGETHER
(MARIA/NATE/T.D. 16 AND AN UPPER LOW IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF). OUR
KEY LIES IN THE GULF LOW AND THE SEMI-PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST U.S.
THROUGH SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE.

THE UPPER LOW IN THE GULF IS GRADUALLY GETTING OUT OF THE WAY...EXIT
STAGE LEFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WHATEVER SHEAR IN THE NEAR STORM
ENVIRONMENT (MAINLY IN THE EASTERN GULF) TO WEAKEN. COMBINE THIS
WITH THE LOCATION OF THE CYCLONE NEAR/OVER THE GULF STREAM...SEE NO
REASON WHY THE CYCLONE WON`T STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. HOW QUICKLY? NOT SURE YET...BUT NOTE THAT NEARBY WATER
TEMPERATURES HAVE LOWERED IN THE WAKE OF KATRINA.

SECOND...TRACK. THOUGH THE CENTRAL GULF LOW IS SLIDING WEST...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW...ALBEIT LIGHT...IN
THE EASTERN GULF TO NUDGE THE SYSTEM ALONG ITS CURRENT FORECAST
NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BUT IT`S GONNA
BE CLOSE. THE WINDS AROUND THE GULF TROUGH ARE QUITE TIGHT (NOTE
THAT ATLANTA`S RAOB HAS DECENT SOUTHWESTERLIES ABOVE 400 MB WHILE
BIRMINGHAMS`S WERE NORTHEAST!). THE LATEST GFDL NOW TAKES THE SYSTEM
MORE WESTWARD...SO MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

THEREAFTER...THE MOVEMENT WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER THE CYCLONE GETS FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO "FEEL" THE FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING OFF THE
NORTHEAST U.S. COAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. IF IT DOES...IT
SHOULD MAKE THE TURN WITH THE WESTERLIES AND HEAD AWAY FROM THE
REGION.

HOWEVER...IF IT DOESN`T...THE LATEST MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
NORTH AND EAST...WHICH WOULD ULTIMATELY STEER THE SYSTEM OR ITS
REMNANTS BACK TO THE WEST AND PERHAPS INTO THE GULF. STAY TUNED!

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WILL FORECAST BASED ON NHC TRACK AND GFS
TREND SHOWING A NORTH/NORTHWEST NUDGE. WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINING
SOUTH OF 28N THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BETTER CONVERGENCE IN
GEOSTROPHIC EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL RULE EACH AFTERNOON...
INCREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TO NUMEROUS IN ALL BUT THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA AND THE COASTAL WATERS EACH
AFTERNOON. LACK OF HEATING WILL TAPER THE ACTIVITY QUICKLY EACH
EVENING...BUT PERHAPS NOT ENOUGH TO DROP MENTION ALTOGETHER.
INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN WIND GUSTS ABOVE 35
MPH.

SKIES WILL TEND TO BE CLEARER AT NIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING...
CLOUDING UP NICELY EACH AFTERNOON...SO HAVE TRENDED THAT WAY AS
WELL. AS FOR RAINFALL...NORTHEAST FLOW IN THESE TYPES OF EVENTS
FAVORS THE EAST COAST...WITH A GRADUAL DROP-OFF AS BANDS CROSS THE
PENINSULA. HAVE FOLLOWED HPC QUANTITATIVE PRECIP FORECASTS FOR
NOW...WHICH FAVOR INTERIOR CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR HEAVIEST RAINS EACH
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE...AND REFRESHING
NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL MAKE IT EVEN MORE COMFORTABLE (RELATIVE TO
TYPICAL EARLY SEPTEMBER CONDITIONS).

NOTE THAT SHOULD THE CYCLONE REMAIN/DEVELOP WELL EAST OF THE
PENINSULA...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE AND ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE WILL
BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE DEGREES OVER EXPECTED FORECAST.

.LONG TERM (THU NIGHT-TUE)...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S.
WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...RIDGING DOWN TO THE GULF
COAST AS IT DOES. HOWEVER...THE MAJOR PLAYER IS NEWLY NUMBERED T.D.
#16 LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS LATE THIS MORNING. MOST RECENT TRACK/
AS OF 11 AM TUE/ MOVES IT TOWARD THE NE FL COAST BY THE WEEKEND.
BUT AS ALWAYS...PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NHC FOR
DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH HIGH END SCATTERED
POPS THAT DECREASE TO MID-RANGE BY TUE WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
CLIMO FOR THE TIME BEING. HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS ACROSS INLAND AND
NORTHERN AREAS TO BLEND IN BETTER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND TCM
GRIDS.

&&

.MARINE...AGREE WITH MODELS` IDEA THAT GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WIL
CONTINUE TO SHARPEN A BIT AS THE CYCLONE SLOWLY INTENSIFIES. FOR
THIS REASON...WILL ADD THE CENTRAL LEGS TO THE EXERCISE CAUTION AREA
AS EVENING WINDS SHOULD PICK UP FROM TAMPA BAY WESTWARD. WILL LEAVE
THE SOUTH THIRD JUST BELOW CRITERIA FOR NOW. BEYOND DAY 2...
FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON ULTIMATE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE
CYCLONE. FOR NOW...WILL BE RAMPING DOWN THE WINDS AND GENERALLY
MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TPA 75 88 76 88 / 30 60 40 60
FMY 74 88 76 88 / 30 50 40 50
GIF 74 88 75 88 / 30 60 40 60
SRQ 75 88 76 88 / 30 50 40 50
BKV 73 88 74 88 / 30 60 40 60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM ENGLEWOOD TO SUWANNEE RIVER
OUT 60 NM...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BSG
LONG TERM....RKR

[Jevo]

DIE you ugly excuse for a tropical depression DIEEEEEEEEE

I just approved to close on Friday as long as we dont have a named storm


THATS IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

IM CALLING THE DYN-O-MAT GUY

[frankthetank]

Hey...

I guess we will all see come next weekend, right???

[feederband]

DIE you ugly excuse for a tropical depression DIEEEEEEEEE

I just approved to close on Friday as long as we dont have a named storm


THATS IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

IM CALLING THE DYN-O-MAT GUY

Yeah,, I'm going to take my kids Super Soaker 6000 water cannon,fill it up with some of that DYN-O-MAT stuff, head to the east coast and take out TD 16.....

[Amanzi]

DIE you ugly excuse for a tropical depression DIEEEEEEEEE

I just approved to close on Friday as long as we dont have a named storm


THATS IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

IM CALLING THE DYN-O-MAT GUY

Yeah,, I'm going to take my kids Super Soaker 6000 water cannon,fill it up with some of that DYN-O-MAT stuff, head to the east coast and take out TD 16.....

I have a 18 month old baby and a gazillion diapers, do you think if put some of the gel from the diapers in into that super soaker it might work. It may be more economical than dyn-o-mat?

Jevo... I really hope your closing goes ok!

[truballer#1]

If nate wan't right by td 16, td 16 would intensifie a lot faster and would of been a ts tonight instead of tomarrow night.

[WeatherEmperor]

If nate wan't right by td 16, td 16 would intensifie a lot faster and would of been a ts tonight instead of tomarrow night.

in that case, FL has to be thankful for Nate.

<RICKY>

[Dean4Storms]

From looking at WSR-88D out of Melbourne and visible Sat. imagery the NHC track is a bust. It appears to be much further north and now appears to be moving more westward and is miles ahead of the forecasted positions.

[LanceW]

That would be great for us in Florida, as it would not have any time to strengthen.

[mahicks]

From looking at WSR-88D out of Melbourne and visible Sat. imagery the NHC track is a bust. It appears to be much further north and now appears to be moving more westward and is miles ahead of the forecasted positions.

Link??

Oh...nevermind thats the station ID for the standard radar out of Melbourne

[mascpa]

From looking at WSR-88D out of Melbourne and visible Sat. imagery the NHC track is a bust. It appears to be much further north and now appears to be moving more westward and is miles ahead of the forecasted positions.

That would be great for us here in Jupiter. We've had too much rain already. The ground is pretty saturated as it is, we don't need any more for quite a while.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE INCLUDING
MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR GRAND BAHAMA...THE ABACOS AND BIMINI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT
25 MILES... 35 KM...NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
AND ABOUT 175 MILES... 280 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY BUT A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD
DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE
WAS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...26.7 N... 78.5 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1008 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA