Tropical Storm Ophelia

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
1500Z MON SEP 12 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH
SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 76.8W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 70SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 240SE 225SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 76.8W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 76.9W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.8N 77.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 32.3N 77.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 33.0N 77.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 33.9N 77.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 35.5N 76.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 38.0N 73.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 41.0N 68.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 76.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005

LATEST DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE INDICATED A PEAK 700
MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 63 KT. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 60 KT...ALTHOUGH THIS IS PROBABLY GENEROUS GIVEN THE
LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION TO TRANSPORT MOMENTUM VERTICALLY. THUS THE
SYSTEM IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THIS ADVISORY.
OPHELIA HAS NOT MOVED MUCH OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO
UPWELLING AND STIRRING HAS LIKELY COOLED THE WATERS. SHIP AND
DRIFTING BUOY DATA SUGGEST THAT THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY
HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW 26 DEG C BENEATH THE STORM CENTER. THE
TRACK FORECAST TAKES OPHELIA OVER A SECTION OF THE GULF STREAM...
WHERE A MODESTLY DEEP WARM WATER MIXED LAYER...I.E. HIGHER OCEANIC
HEAT CONTENT...COULD INDUCE RE-STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM RE-ATTAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH
BEFORE NEARING THE COAST.

AFTER COMPLETING A SMALL CLOCKWISE LOOP...THE STORM IS MOVING VERY
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...315/02. BECAUSE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE
SO ILL-DEFINED...THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS A DIFFICULT ONE. SOME
GLOBAL MODELS...NAMELY NOGAPS AND THE CANADIAN...INDICATE THAT THE
BROAD 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS WILL LACK SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO PICK UP OPHELIA
AND ACCELERATE IT NORTHEASTWARD. THEREFORE WE HAVE THE UNPLEASANT
POSSIBILITY THAT THE CYCLONE COULD LINGER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE GFS AND GFDL STILL MOVE OPHELIA NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE ATLANTIC BEYOND 3 DAYS...BUT THEY ARE SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN
THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. IN DEFERENCE TO THIS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE 3-5
DAY TIME FRAME.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 31.6N 76.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 31.8N 77.4W 60 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 32.3N 77.7W 65 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 33.0N 77.7W 65 KT
48HR VT 14/1200Z 33.9N 77.4W 70 KT
72HR VT 15/1200Z 35.5N 76.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 16/1200Z 38.0N 73.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 17/1200Z 41.0N 68.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[Janice]

CNN just said on their weather report that Ophelia is a dying cane.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005

...OPHELIA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH
SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST OR ABOUT
205 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 260
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH AND A SLOW...
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD...MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OPHELIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE
CENTER. SOME OF THE OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE NEAR THE COAST IN THE
WARNING AREA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS IS
989 MB...29.20 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...31.6 N... 76.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

[Andrew92]

THEREFORE WE HAVE THE UNPLEASANT
POSSIBILITY THAT THE CYCLONE COULD LINGER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THROUGH 5 DAYS.

C'mon, just admit it. She might just commit suicide while lingering there. That wouldn't be all that unpleasant, would it? It just dying there not harming anyone.

Let's hope for Ophelia killing herself anyway!

-Andrew92

[Andrew92]

CNN just said on their weather report that Ophelia is a dying cane.

That's because she's committing suicide again, just like in Hamlet.

-Andrew92

[cycloneye]

Why is the heading Tropical Storm and not Hurricane?

It has been downgraded... 11am advisory it will be a tropical storm.

Thanks. Had not seen any advisory with the downgrade yet.
Again the value of S2K whcih gives me info before I can find it anywhere else!

fci here at storm2k you have updated information one hour ahead of the networks and TWC.You can know one hour ahead as it occured this morning that Ophelia was downgraded.

[Janice]

Now CNN just said they expect her to become a cane again.

[cjrciadt]

Now CNN just said they expect her to become a cane again.

Good I dont go to CNN to get my tropical updates.

[spinfan4eva]

...THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS A DIFFICULT ONE. SOME
GLOBAL MODELS...NAMELY NOGAPS AND THE CANADIAN...INDICATE THAT THE
BROAD 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS WILL LACK SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO PICK UP OPHELIA
AND ACCELERATE IT NORTHEASTWARD. THEREFORE WE HAVE THE UNPLEASANT
POSSIBILITY THAT THE CYCLONE COULD LINGER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE GFS AND GFDL STILL MOVE OPHELIA NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE ATLANTIC BEYOND 3 DAYS...BUT THEY ARE SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN
THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. IN DEFERENCE TO THIS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE 3-5
DAY TIME FRAME.

[Carolina_survivor]

I guess Ophelia being suicidal in Hamlet is no fluke! She was fictitiously suicidal, and now she enters our real lives and proves to be just as suicidal.

-Andrew92

Just thought you'd like to know...there IS a town called Hamlet in North Carolina. Pretty far inland, but still, wouldn't the news media have a blast with that one.

[GABE]

Wait, there's the part in Hamlet where she was hosed down with water, AFTER she had been put in a strait-jacket. With this "moisture", she will continue her path of madness. Hamlet (Nate?) had departed and gone to England (as did Nate), and it was after this that her tirade began, much to the amazement of on-lookers. I personally think she will pay a surprise visit to New York later this week, where 170 heads of nations are convening at the United Nations for a world summit on terrorism and other assorted matters. After she makes this rendevous, she will go to her watery grave in peace. For what it is worth.....good day now....
GABE

[Andrew92]

I guess Ophelia being suicidal in Hamlet is no fluke! She was fictitiously suicidal, and now she enters our real lives and proves to be just as suicidal.

-Andrew92

Just thought you'd like to know...there IS a town called Hamlet in North Carolina. Pretty far inland, but still, wouldn't the news media have a blast with that one.

INTERESTING!!!

[MBismyPlayground]

Strangest thing........The Myrtle Beach area(Horry County) has just been issued voluntary evacuation by the state govenor. WHY??

[beenthru6]

Yeah, I just got home and saw that. Very strange.

[RU4REAL]

I don't know, maybe its because of the unpredictablility of the forcast, if she comes ashore and hangs around longer than they exspect. Who knows

[SCHawkFan]

Hamlet, NC. Birthplace of the great jazz saxophonist John Coltrane.

[spinfan4eva]

29N is east of Daytona Beach

SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
1130 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 29N BETWEEN 74W AND 79W...

.THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR GREATER
WINDS WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT...140 NM SE QUADRANT...100 NM SW
QUADRANT AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT...WITH HIGHEST WINDS 60 KT GUSTS
75 KT NEAR CENTER OF OPHELIA. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER OVER
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 250 NM NE QUADRANT...240 NM SE QUADRANT
...225 NM SW QUADRANT AND 200 NM NW QUADRANT WITH HIGHEST SEAS
31 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 27N BETWEEN 71W AND 79W WINDS 20 TO 33
KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT...ELSEWHERE N OF 27N W OF 70W WINDS S TO SW
15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT PRIMARILY IN SWELL FROM OPHELIA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SQUALLS WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER.
N OF 27N E OF 71W NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
S OF 27N SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT EXCEPT 2 TO 3
FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 24N.

[spinfan4eva]

Looks like she's moving wnw towards South Carolina now at a more decisive speed
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[feederband]

Now CNN just said they expect her to become a cane again.

They are trying to be like FOX...Fair and balanced...