TD 27,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Ivanhater]

wxman, where do you think this will go, the computer models are not looking good for the u.s

[ronjon]

It looks exactly like a TS to me late this morning. I'll bet it will be named by this afternoon.

I agree dixiebreeze - Gamma is forming - it is staring to wrap the convection to the east around to the north and west. Some banding features appearing to the south. Shear is decreasing. All looks favorable for TS development later today.

[wxman57]

It looks exactly like a TS to me late this morning. I'll bet it will be named by this afternoon.

I've been studying these professionally for 25 years, dixie, and it looks like an open wave to me, perhaps bordering on becoming a TD if it can get any convection near the low pressure center.

Most, here, want it to develop, though, and they may be seeing things that aren't there. I absolutely do not want it to develop, so it's possible I could be biased the other way a bit. If it develops, then I may not be able to drive to Mississippi to help my mother rebuild her home next weekend. She got flooded in Katrina and I've been trying to help out in between storms and traveling for hurricane talks. I'm in Charleston, SC today, speaking about the 2005 hurricane season to a group of power companies.

I tried plotting surface obs across the NE Caribbean and got nothing within 250 miles of the low pressure center. So no hard data to confirm an LLC.

[wxman57]

wxman, where do you think this will go, the computer models are not looking good for the u.s

You're absolutely 100% safe there, ivanhater. Deepening trof across the Gulf Coast late in the week will mean strong WSW-W flow aloft from the southern Gulf northward. No chance this is coming into the Gulf.

[Ivanhater]

wxman, where do you think this will go, the computer models are not looking good for the u.s

You're absolutely 100% safe there, ivanhater. Deepening trof across the Gulf Coast late in the week will mean strong WSW-W flow aloft from the southern Gulf northward. No chance this is coming into the Gulf.

lol, you always know what to say to start my day off right

[ronjon]

It looks exactly like a TS to me late this morning. I'll bet it will be named by this afternoon.

I've been studying these professionally for 25 years, dixie, and it looks like an open wave to me, perhaps bordering on becoming a TD if it can get any convection near the low pressure center.

Most, here, want it to develop, though, and they may be seeing things that aren't there. I absolutely do not want it to develop, so it's possible I could be biased the other way a bit. If it develops, then I may not be able to drive to Mississippi to help my mother rebuild her home next weekend. She got flooded in Katrina and I've been trying to help out in between storms and traveling for hurricane talks. I'm in Charleston, SC today, speaking about the 2005 hurricane season to a group of power companies.

I tried plotting surface obs across the NE Caribbean and got nothing within 250 miles of the low pressure center. So no hard data to confirm an LLC.

So the NHC is wrong. I'll side with the NHC on this one.

[HURAKAN]

If the NHC's track holds true, then what I'm seen is not very good for Nicaragua and Honduras. A few weeks ago they had Beta, since a week ago 93L has been bothering around dumping a lot of rain, and if future Gamma gets there, moving as slow as forecasted, then a catastrophe will happen with the poor people of Central America. Musdlides and trememdous flooding will be the main and most common problem. A lot of people could die before everything is set and done. Very interesting and problematic days ahead.

[wxman57]

It looks exactly like a TS to me late this morning. I'll bet it will be named by this afternoon.

I've been studying these professionally for 25 years, dixie, and it looks like an open wave to me, perhaps bordering on becoming a TD if it can get any convection near the low pressure center.

Most, here, want it to develop, though, and they may be seeing things that aren't there. I absolutely do not want it to develop, so it's possible I could be biased the other way a bit. If it develops, then I may not be able to drive to Mississippi to help my mother rebuild her home next weekend. She got flooded in Katrina and I've been trying to help out in between storms and traveling for hurricane talks. I'm in Charleston, SC today, speaking about the 2005 hurricane season to a group of power companies.

I tried plotting surface obs across the NE Caribbean and got nothing within 250 miles of the low pressure center. So no hard data to confirm an LLC.

So the NHC is wrong. I'll side with the NHC on this one.

NHC is not necessarily wrong in calling it a TD. Their main concern is public safety and the wave was causing heavy squalls across the islands. Often, the NHC errs on the side of caution and they may upgrade a system so that people pay attention. But I know the guys at the NHC, and they can clearly see this system is very marginally a TD, if that. They're just being careful.

[cycloneye]

If the NHC's track holds true, then what I'm seen is not very good for Nicaragua and Honduras. A few weeks ago they had Beta, since a week ago 93L has been bothering around dumping a lot of rain, and if future Gamma gets there, moving as slow as forecasted, then a catastrophe will happen with the poor people of Central America. Musdlides and trememdous flooding will be the main and most common problem. A lot of people could die before everything is set and done. Very interesting and problematic days ahead.

But Sandy thankfully when Beta occured no big tragic event occured in Nicaragua or Honduras as they prepared with time so I can expect the same preparations if this goes their way.

[wxman57]

I just plotted all the model data I can find. Here's a graphic. We can discount that red LBAR track unless it develops its own propulsion system against low and mid-level winds.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gamma3.gif">

[ronjon]

I just plotted all the model data I can find. Here's a graphic. We can discount that red LBAR track unless it develops its own propulsion system against low and mid-level winds.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gamma3.gif">

Well, you left off the CMC and UKMET which show a recurvature south of Cuba. My point is what happens after the 5-day period of model runs. The 06Z GFDL shows a slowing down of the cyclone during the last 12-24 hrs of its run - its final 6 hr leg turns the system to the NW. I'm just saying the synoptic pattern appears more likely for a weakening of the ridge to the north and a sharpening trough on sunday - which points toward a turn to the N and NE at some point - why some people insist on a central american track given the influence of digging troughs to the north hints at some wishcasting.

[SouthFloridawx]

[cycloneye]

Very cold cloud tops persist but what we have to watch is if a new center form or the actual center reforms more close to the convection.

[Canelaw99]

As always, it will be a question of timing. While the CMC has a penchant for over-developing hurricanes - it is not out of the realm of possiblity for a major hurricane to form south of Cuba and roar across Cuba N-NE into S FL or the Bahamas. Everyone in peninsula FL needs to keep a close eye on this soon to be Gamma. The odds strongly favor re-curvature - just a matter of how far west and north Gamma gets prior to this happening.

Them are fightin' words! lol S. FL is closed for the rest of the season, thank you very much.....unless....now, if we got one more storm, it might bring housing prices down and hubby and I might be able to actually afford a house.....Hmmmmm

hee hee - little joke there my fellow South Floridians

[terpfan]

anyone have a link to SST for areas ahead of the forecast track? thanks.

[cjrciadt]

anyone have a link to SST for areas ahead of the forecast track? thanks.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/ca.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It appears to have a clearly closed area of low pressure. Also the convection is forming closer by the minute over it. With the improving upper levels this could strengthing at a fair rate after 12 to 24 hours.

That is some deep convection if that can keep on building over the LLC. Then things are going to get interesting.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[terpfan]

Thanks, cjr. Looks like fuel enough for development with weakening shear values.

[Weatherfreak14]

Looks it will be gamma at 5pm advisory. Convection is exploding.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Convection is "off the charts"...