Hurricane Katrina

[StormsAhead]

URNT40 KWBC 271420
NOAA3 1312A KATRINA
141030 2635 08332 14661 +0635 115044 +036 +011 115045 029 003
141100 2637 08332 14674 +0633 113042 +034 +007 113042 031 003
141130 2639 08330 14681 +0648 114043 +036 -013 113043 999 999
141200 2639 08329 14665 +0648 114039 +035 -016 115041 999 999
141230 2637 08328 14661 +0646 113038 +036 -013 113038 033 002
141300 2635 08328 14663 +0630 113039 +030 +011 113040 030 002
141330 2633 08329 14678 +0627 114040 +032 +014 117040 029 002
141400 2631 08330 14673 +0623 114041 +029 +018 113041 029 002
141430 2629 08330 14677 +0616 112042 +035 +012 111043 033 002
141500 2627 08331 14671 +0613 111043 +035 +012 111043 032 002
141530 2625 08332 14668 +0608 112041 +038 +008 111041 033 003
141600 2622 08332 14671 +0607 112041 +036 +017 111042 037 002
141630 2620 08333 14672 +0602 115042 +031 +023 115043 038 002
141700 2618 08333 14672 +0598 115043 +034 +018 114043 039 002
141730 2616 08334 14670 +0593 114045 +036 +015 116047 040 002
141800 2614 08334 14488 +0578 117048 +040 +016 117049 040 002
141830 2612 08335 13982 +0538 118050 +047 +021 119053 039 002
141900 2610 08335 13374 +0494 117051 +055 +034 118053 039 003
141930 2608 08336 12753 +0446 117044 +065 +040 117047 039 002
142000 2606 08336 12164 +0403 118046 +082 +039 117048 038 002

[drezee]

479
WTNT22 KNHC 271432
TCMAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005
1500Z SAT AUG 27 2005

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF
THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS IS DISCONTINUED FROM KEY WEST EASTWARD. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 85.0W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 90SE 90SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 100SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 85.0W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 84.6W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 24.6N 86.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 25.3N 87.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 26.7N 89.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 28.6N 89.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 33.0N 89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 37.5N 86.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 41.5N 80.0W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 85.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

FORECASTER BEVEN


$$

[StormsAhead]

URNT40 KWBC 271430
NOAA3 1312A KATRINA
142030 2604 08337 11687 +0355 123051 +085 +053 126052 038 003
142100 2602 08337 11220 +0318 127050 +093 +065 127052 038 003
142130 2600 08338 10630 +0282 128047 +104 +075 127047 040 003
142200 2558 08338 10033 +0248 126053 +115 +088 126055 040 003
142230 2556 08339 9780 +0228 127058 +121 +093 127059 041 002
142300 2555 08339 9758 +0222 126057 +119 +097 127059 040 003
142330 2553 08340 9760 +0226 123051 +126 +092 125052 043 002
142400 2551 08341 9753 +0219 125051 +128 +091 125051 039 003
142430 2550 08343 9766 +0216 128049 +128 +071 129049 039 003
142500 2548 08344 9765 +0208 129047 +129 +069 128049 039 003
142530 2547 08346 9770 +0200 131045 +127 +078 131045 040 004
142600 2545 08347 9771 +0195 129045 +128 +080 128046 041 003
142630 2544 08349 9763 +0187 126046 +130 +072 125047 043 002
142700 2542 08351 9764 +0181 127050 +132 +071 126050 044 003
142730 2541 08352 9765 +0174 128049 +132 +078 127049 045 002
142800 2539 08354 9765 +0164 127048 +132 +073 128048 043 002
142830 2538 08355 9766 +0154 127049 +132 +062 128052 042 002
142900 2536 08357 9763 +0145 125050 +125 +077 127050 043 002
142930 2534 08359 9792 +0138 124051 +123 +083 124052 044 002
143000 2533 08400 9813 +0133 125056 +125 +082 124057 045 002

59 knots FL...

[StormsAhead]

UZNT13 KWBC 271434
XXAA 77148 99259 70837 08153 99002 26841 12041 00015 26843 12042
92699 21832 13064 85432 18832 13561 88999 77999
31313 09608 81423
51515 10190 70084
61616 NOAA3 1312A KATRINA OB 03
62626 SPL 2590N08373W 1427 WL150 11550 085 DLM WND 13057 001704 M
BL WND 12055=
XXBB 77148 99259 70837 08153 00002 26841 11988 25835 22968 24023
33720 13456 44704 12833
21212 00002 12041 11986 11055 22960 12059 33941 12567 44929 13063
55912 13568 66704 12552
31313 09608 81423
51515 10190 70084
61616 NOAA3 1312A KATRINA OB 03
62626 SPL 2590N08373W 1427 WL150 11550 085 DLM WND 13057 001704 M
BL WND 12055=

Observation #: 3
Location: 25.9N 83.7W
Surface: Pressure 1002mb; Wind ESE (120°) @ 41 knots
1000mb: Height 15 meters; Wind ESE (120°) @ 42 knots
925mb: Height 699 meters; Wind SE (130°) @ 64 knots
850mb: Height 1432 meters; Wind SE (130°) @ 61 knots

[StormsAhead]

URNT40 KWBC 271440
NOAA3 1312A KATRINA
143030 2531 08402 9811 +0125 123057 +123 +083 123057 045 003
143100 2530 08403 9832 +0115 126057 +125 +069 128057 044 003
143130 2528 08405 9862 +0109 126057 +123 +066 127057 044 002
143200 2527 08407 9866 +0104 124059 +120 +074 126060 046 003
143230 2525 08408 9872 +0095 127064 +113 +087 127065 048 003
143300 2524 08410 9864 +0088 125062 +115 +091 124063 047 003
143330 2522 08411 9871 +0076 128065 +120 +089 128067 046 003
143400 2521 08413 9865 +0063 127062 +120 +090 127063 046 003
143430 2519 08414 9864 +0053 127067 +116 +111 127067 046 003
143500 2518 08416 9871 +0037 129065 +117 +091 128066 046 003
143530 2516 08417 9874 +0024 129066 +118 +093 130066 049 003
143600 2515 08419 9932 +0016 129075 +115 +112 128079 049 004
143630 2513 08421 9951 -0003 130076 +113 +113 129076 052 007
143700 2512 08422 9947 -0023 133074 +112 +112 132076 999 999
143730 2510 08424 9957 -0042 130071 +110 +110 130072 056 008
143800 2509 08425 9993 -0057 131073 +115 +102 130074 056 004
143830 2507 08427 10000 -0076 133078 +122 +097 134080 058 003
143900 2506 08428 10043 -0101 134080 +123 +092 134081 059 004
143930 2504 08430 10059 -0116 133079 +132 +104 132081 058 003
144000 2503 08431 10061 -0137 132084 +134 +106 133086 059 003

FL wind 86 knots, surface 59 knots.

[Windy]

[bvigal]

Am I reading this right? NHC now (11am) predicting Cat 4 over Grand Isle, New Orleans, and Lake Ponchatrain????

[Windy]

[Portastorm]

Question. Can/should we pay much attention to the NAM model in cases like we currently have with Katrina?

Just curious. The latest run (12z) seems to take her near the LA coast just west of New Orleans and then keeps her a bit off the coast as if the ridge rebuilds and starts (perhaps) shunting her west.

Keep in mind I've just seen the runs through 66h. Just wondering?

[Portastorm]

Question. Can/should we pay much attention to the NAM model in cases like we currently have with Katrina?

Just curious. The latest run (12z) seems to take her near the LA coast just west of New Orleans and then keeps her a bit off the coast as if the ridge rebuilds and starts (perhaps) shunting her west.

Keep in mind I've just seen the runs through 66h. Just wondering?

[bvigal]

[StormsAhead]

URNT40 KWBC 271450
NOAA3 1312A KATRINA
144030 2501 08433 10052 -0159 130085 +140 +108 128087 061 005
144100 2500 08434 10114 -0185 128083 +129 +121 126085 063 004
144130 2459 08436 10149 -0218 129085 +128 +125 130086 065 004
144200 2457 08437 10194 -0246 131085 +128 +128 131087 070 007
144230 2456 08439 10177 -0282 129086 +132 +132 131087 069 006
144300 2454 08440 10240 -0308 123085 +134 +134 124087 072 007
144330 2452 08442 10193 -0353 119082 +140 +137 120085 074 006
144400 2451 08443 10247 -0392 118081 +144 +131 118082 075 005
144430 2449 08444 10287 -0426 118074 +142 +126 119077 076 003
144500 2447 08445 10316 -0457 116067 +152 +109 116067 072 002
144530 2445 08446 10394 -0487 117068 +157 +102 117069 061 002
144600 2444 08447 10436 -0525 122070 +154 +107 121071 055 001
144630 2442 08448 10492 -0568 123072 +153 +101 123072 054 002
144700 2440 08450 10499 -0619 128074 +164 +091 127074 057 002
144730 2438 08451 10488 -0678 123073 +157 +118 123074 056 002
144830 2435 08453 10540 -1411 137082 +189 +113 147095 065 003
144900 2433 08454 10796 -0885 137070 +176 +131 136073 062 004
144930 2432 08455 10874 -0969 142052 +171 +123 140059 050 005
145000 2430 08457 10937 -1058 140035 +154 +130 144043 040 004

FL 95 knots...surface 76 knots...vortex soon

[x-y-no]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 271450
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF KATRINA DROPPED TO 940 MB AT 0932Z.
SINCE THEN...THE HURRICANE HAS STARTED A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL
CYCLE...WITH A FILLING OF THE EYE AND WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 100 KT BASED
MAINLY ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KT FROM TAFB AND
AFWA...AND 115 KT FROM SAB. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY AIRCRAFT SO FAR ARE 106 KT...WHICH
ARE LOWER THAN WOULD NORMALLY BE EXPECTED FOR A 940 MB HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 275/6. KATRINA IS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES...AND A NEW DEEP-LAYER RIDGE FORMS OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD
CAUSE KATRINA TO TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HR AND MAKE
LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ALL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES
ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD...
PARTICULARLY FROM THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS WHICH CALL FOR
LANDFALL NEAR MORGAN CITY AND INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
RESPECTIVELY. THE OTHER GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED WITH LANDFALL
BETWEEN GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA AND PENSACOLA FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...CALLING FOR
LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA IN 48-60 HR. THE NEW TRACK IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

KATRINA SHOULD STRENGTHEN SLOWLY FOR THE FIRST 12 HR OR SO AS THE
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL COMPLETES AND SOME RESIDUAL NORTHERLY SHEAR
AFFECTS THE STORM. AFTER THAT...IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN IN A LIGHT
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER VERY WARM WATER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR THE HURRICANE TO REACH 125 KT IN 48 HR AS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE 120 KT GFDL...THE 126 KT GFDN...THE 127 KT SHIPS...AND
THE 132 KT FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT KATRINA COULD REACH CATEGORY 5 STATUS AT SOME
POINT BEFORE LANDFALL. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOUTHERLY OR
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR COULD AFFECT KATRINA STARTING AT 48 HR...AND AS
ALWAYS HAPPENS IN HURRICANE OF THIS INTENSITY ADDITIONAL CONCENTRIC
EYEWALL CYCLES COULD OCCUR.

THE NEW FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII REQUIRE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AT THIS TIME...INCLUDING
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS. THIS WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED ALONG THE COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1500Z 24.5N 85.0W 100 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 24.6N 86.0W 105 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 25.3N 87.6W 115 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 26.7N 89.0W 120 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 28.6N 89.9W 125 KT
72HR VT 30/1200Z 33.0N 89.5W 60 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 31/1200Z 37.5N 86.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 01/1200Z 41.5N 80.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


$$

[drezee]

winds still not there

[StormsAhead]

URNT40 KWBC 271500
NOAA3 1312A KATRINA
145030 2429 08459 10964 -1099 087015 +159 +123 105020 999 999
145100 2427 08500 11027 -1085 325005 +154 +124 266011 999 999
145130 2425 08500 10990 -1035 253025 +146 +125 249029 999 999
145200 2423 08500 11007 -0961 263038 +140 +126 264041 999 999
145230 2422 08502 10818 -0951 278049 +139 +138 283051 999 999
145300 2423 08504 10705 -0983 293041 +141 +140 286046 999 999
145330 2425 08504 10778 -1026 307027 +146 +132 299034 999 999
145400 2427 08503 11018 -1060 339014 +147 +130 331016 021 004
145430 2428 08502 11086 -1079 043015 +161 +121 058017 999 999
145500 2429 08500 11023 -1083 144016 +160 +122 172025 999 999
145530 2427 08458 10959 -1046 188037 +158 +120 192040 999 999
145600 2426 08458 11001 -1003 203039 +155 +116 200041 999 999
145630 2425 08500 11170 -2007 208058 +146 +117 200113 038 005
145700 2425 08502 10992 -1361 282030 +153 +119 313051 034 004
145730 2425 08504 10989 -1017 295021 +151 +120 314023 999 999
145800 2426 08505 10997 -1032 346024 +150 +128 011026 999 999
145830 2428 08505 10935 -1062 031028 +157 +127 033030 999 999
145900 2429 08503 10999 -1082 064018 +165 +119 050024 999 999
145930 2427 08501 11002 -1065 200008 +157 +123 196013 029 002
150000 2425 08501 11093 -1025 234027 +154 +117 237032 024 004

[StormsAhead]

UZNT13 KWBC 271458
XXAA 77157 99249 70847 08144 99981 ///// ///// 00/// ///// /////
92/// ///// 10589 85/// ///// 12601 70/// ///// 12586 88999 77999
31313 09608 81442
61616 NOAA3 1312A KATRINA OB 04
62626 DLM WND 12093 979692=
XXBB 77158 99249 70847 08144 00981 ///// 11692 134//
21212 00981 ///// 11979 09080 22960 10097 33942 10599 44927 10588
55920 10595 66914 10594 77903 11604 88761 13095 99692 12585
31313 09608 81442
61616 NOAA3 1312A KATRINA OB 04
62626 DLM WND 12093 979692=

Observation #: 4
Location: 24.9N 84.7W
Surface: Pressure 981mb; Wind N/A
925mb: Wind ESE (105°) @ 89 knots
850mb: Wind SE (125°) @ 101 knots

101 knots at 850mb converts to 81 knots at the surface.

[stormy1959]

Is there any possibility that Katrina turns south and then east before going north?

[StormsAhead]

URNT40 KWBC 271510
NOAA3 1312A KATRINA
150030 2424 08502 10957 -0999 258033 +158 +115 267034 999 999
150100 2424 08504 10876 -0996 280035 +159 +125 285036 044 004
150130 2424 08506 10919 -2175 325076 +146 +138 332102 053 005
150200 2424 08508 10917 -1709 334073 +149 +136 337122 067 007
150230 2424 08510 10869 -1394 336075 +145 +134 341112 070 005
150300 2424 08512 10778 -1360 342083 +146 +140 343116 999 999
150330 2425 08513 10679 -0773 349064 +148 +140 350067 999 999
150400 2426 08512 10684 -0830 353066 +149 +129 352066 999 999
150430 2427 08510 10920 -0917 001057 +149 +136 356062 065 004
150500 2426 08508 10959 -0990 358036 +154 +129 001043 051 003
150530 2426 08506 10952 -1032 314017 +152 +130 335022 999 999
150600 2426 08503 10944 -1054 223011 +161 +123 255014 999 999
150630 2428 08503 10869 -1085 147017 +164 +122 163018 022 002
150700 2430 08504 11007 -1078 098026 +160 +121 082033 021 003
150730 2432 08505 11087 -1018 063053 +167 +115 061062 038 002
150800 2434 08507 11017 -0948 064067 +164 +122 065070 058 004
150830 2436 08508 10870 -0866 069076 +161 +139 071079 070 004
150900 2437 08509 10746 -0770 065077 +159 +121 064079 999 999
150930 2438 08512 10581 -0706 054072 +164 +117 059073 999 999
151000 2437 08515 10606 -0666 041071 +162 +109 044071 999 999

122 knots at flight level (converts to 110 knots surface). Still, 30-second wind only goes to 83 knots and SMRF only has 70.

[drezee]

122kt NW/NNW winds ain't weak though

[StormsAhead]

URNT40 KWBC 271520
NOAA3 1312A KATRINA
151030 2434 08516 10589 -0670 029071 +153 +119 024071 999 999
151100 2432 08516 10574 -0722 016071 +159 +118 020071 064 002
151130 2430 08515 10723 -0776 011070 +152 +125 006071 999 999
151200 2429 08513 10785 -0880 008063 +149 +140 004067 066 004
151230 2429 08510 11007 -0967 026055 +167 +118 020059 059 004
151300 2430 08508 10982 -1040 041042 +159 +122 039050 053 004
151330 2429 08506 11028 -1076 051013 +159 +121 046022 034 003
151400 2427 08505 11101 -1060 241014 +149 +129 238019 014 004
151430 2425 08504 11006 -1028 234028 +143 +132 230032 999 999
151500 2425 08502 10919 -0990 224045 +156 +143 219052 999 999
151530 2425 08459 10793 -0953 208060 +176 +124 207062 999 999
151600 2428 08458 10768 -0941 185061 +176 +125 194062 054 004
151630 2430 08458 10935 -0911 161063 +176 +122 162065 057 003
151700 2433 08458 10957 -0857 143069 +182 +120 137071 063 002
151730 2435 08459 10930 -0782 129071 +167 +128 134073 066 004
151800 2438 08500 10771 -0755 111074 +165 +138 107081 999 999
151830 2439 08503 10673 -0758 100085 +150 +120 104086 066 003
151900 2440 08506 10687 -0720 089079 +153 +117 093082 064 002
151930 2442 08508 10673 -0668 083075 +148 +120 085075 063 002
152000 2443 08511 10632 -0609 072070 +164 +102 074071 063 003

Yet another pass...86 knots