Tropical Storm Alberto

[Extremeweatherguy]

iam i hereing NE wobble?anyway this is the FORCAST SWATH FOR ALBERTO FROM 5PM

I seriously doubt what that map predicts.

I do too. And here's why:

1. A landfalling *weak* Tropical storm usually only brings isolated pockets of sustained TS force winds to the coast. These winds usually never get inland (unless in severe squalls).

2. Alberto will likely weaken before landfall.

3. Frictional effects of the land will slow inland windspeeds.

4. The TS force winds do not extend to the left of the center.

5. Alberto's final track is still very uncertain.

[Stratosphere747]

Don't be surprised to see a downgrade. They have been "hinting" at it on the last two discos.

[floridahurricaneguy]

So you guys think no TS winds for west coast of Florida? I am in New Port Richey... 60-70 mile south of Cedar key. I am expecting Tropical storms winds for sure if not at least gusts? Dont ya think? Big wind field

[Brent]

iam i hereing NE wobble?anyway this is the FORCAST SWATH FOR ALBERTO FROM 5PM

Too much wind. No way if the center makes landfall at Cedar Key Pensacola, Destin, Panama City, Tallahassee, Albany, GA will see anything close to TS force GUSTS, much less sustained winds.

I doubt the West Coast of Florida south of the landfall sees much above a brief period of low-end TS force.

[Extremeweatherguy]

iam i hereing NE wobble?anyway this is the FORCAST SWATH FOR ALBERTO FROM 5PM

Bet you $1,000,000 that there are no sustained TS force winds more than one county inland in Florida and certainly nowhere in GA. Actually, I don't think even the beaches of western FL will see TS force sustained 1-minute winds. Wanna bet? I already have a 25 cent bet on the track, what more do I have to lose?

lol. I agree with you 100%.

[Frank P]

I think this "new" center is just a mini-vortex. If you look at the Sat. loop, you can see that it is moving SW around the main broad LLC:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I agree, it's a small vortex on the NE side of the main LLC. The vortex is moving to the west. A thunderstorm that developed over it about 90 minutes ago got sheared apart and is blowing off to the east. I detect no movement of the LLC since sunrise today.

From what I have seen on the GOES vis loop the overall system is not moving much if at all... the broad low does see to be elongated SW to NE somewhat... the shear is still pounding the stew out of it, which gives the illusion of a NE motion with the tops of the storms being sheared off to the NE... also one on the mini vortex was also moving to the NE... but as far as I can tell the main circulation of the system is not moving much, or at least is have not beening moving much during the past hour or so

[Extremeweatherguy]

So you guys think no TS winds for west coast of Florida? I am in New Port Richey... 60-70 mile south of Cedar key. I am expecting Tropical storms winds for sure if not at least gusts? Dont ya think? Big wind field

I think most of the west coast north of Tampa can expect 20-35mph sustained winds and gusts to 40-50mph at times. There may be a few brief pockets of higher winds in any severe squalls (which would be like severe T-storms). I would expect only very minor and isolated damages (unless a tornado hits). Inland of the landfall and northward from a line extending from Tampa to Orlando to Merritt Island I would expect 15-25mph sustained winds and a few gusts to 25-40mph.

[Brent]

So you guys think no TS winds for west coast of Florida? I am in New Port Richey... 60-70 mile south of Cedar key. I am expecting Tropical storms winds for sure if not at least gusts? Dont ya think? Big wind field

If this were a semi-organized decent storm I'd say yes, but I doubt it looking at the structure of it. It's possible it might not be a storm right now, and conditions aren't going to get better for it.

[CHRISTY]

wow u guys just jumped on my map.... anyway guys i agree with u guys 100% on youre thinking this will probably be downgraded tonight or tommorow,shear will be on the increase and also there's alot of dry air surrounded it.

[wxman57]

So you guys think no TS winds for west coast of Florida? I am in New Port Richey... 60-70 mile south of Cedar key. I am expecting Tropical storms winds for sure if not at least gusts? Dont ya think? Big wind field

I think you've already seen the worst of Alberto in that big feeder band that hit around noon. There's a chance that another area of squalls could redevelop overnight off the west coast, though.

[gatorcane]

So you guys think no TS winds for west coast of Florida? I am in New Port Richey... 60-70 mile south of Cedar key. I am expecting Tropical storms winds for sure if not at least gusts? Dont ya think? Big wind field

I think you've already seen the worst of Alberto in that big feeder band that hit around noon. There's a chance that another area of squalls could redevelop overnight off the west coast, though.

Yes WxMan I agree, in fact, you can dig up my post about this from 6 hours ago in this same thread. I doubt it will get worse than that band at 12:00

[CHRISTY]

So you guys think no TS winds for west coast of Florida? I am in New Port Richey... 60-70 mile south of Cedar key. I am expecting Tropical storms winds for sure if not at least gusts? Dont ya think? Big wind field

I think you've already seen the worst of Alberto in that big feeder band that hit around noon. There's a chance that another area of squalls could redevelop overnight off the west coast, though.

Wxman57 whats your thinking on this SATELLITE FIXES FROM ALBERTO

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think the NHC has the current center of Alberto placed too far NE.

[wxman57]

Wxman57 whats your thinking on this SATELLITE FIXES FROM ALBERTO

I think the blue and green tracks weren't updated today, the red track looks good.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wxman57 whats your thinking on this SATELLITE FIXES FROM ALBERTO

I think the blue and green tracks weren't updated today, the red track looks good.

wxman, what do you think about the new vortex message saying the center is at 25N/87W. Doesn't that seem too far NE?

[Brent]

Earlier vortex:

B. 24 deg 11 min N
087 deg 35 min W

New vortex:

B. 25 deg 01 min N
087 deg 48 min W

[spinfan4eva]

According to this map, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... 204535.gif the NHC expects tropical storm force winds in macon ga, Mobile al, and the entire state of Fla so Chrissys map may actually be underdone a little.

[Evil Jeremy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

is it me, or is the eye joining with the rest of the storm?

[Brent]

According to this map, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... 204535.gif the NHC expects tropical storm force winds in macon ga, Mobile al, and the entire state of Fla so Chrissys map may actually be underdone a little.

5% chance, which accounts for the uncertainty.

[Frank P]

According to this map, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... 204535.gif the NHC expects tropical storm force winds in macon ga, Mobile al, and the entire state of Fla so Chrissys map may actually be underdone a little.

that map shows only a 5% probability of TS winds in Mobile... that's pretty low....