Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

138
SXXX50 KNHC 260544
AF302 0305A ERNESTO HDOB 09 KNHC
0537 1445N 06919W 01466 5010 130 025 184 184 026 01489 0000000000
0537. 1444N 06920W 01458 5013 133 027 186 186 027 01478 0000000000
0538 1443N 06921W 01468 5014 130 024 188 184 027 01487 0000000000
0538. 1442N 06922W 01460 5016 135 020 190 184 021 01477 0000000000
0539 1441N 06924W 01465 5017 142 020 188 184 020 01480 0000000000
0539. 1439N 06925W 01464 5020 141 021 188 182 022 01476 0000000000
0540 1438N 06926W 01462 5024 146 018 188 188 019 01470 0000000000
0540. 1437N 06927W 01463 5026 147 009 190 190 012 01470 0000000000
0541 1436N 06929W 01465 5025 152 002 188 188 005 01473 0000000000
0541. 1435N 06930W 01462 5026 326 005 196 184 008 01469 0000000000
0542 1434N 06931W 01461 5024 313 008 192 192 009 01470 0000000000
0542. 1433N 06933W 01467 5022 315 010 186 186 011 01477 0000000000
0543 1432N 06934W 01461 5020 321 015 188 188 017 01473 0000000000
0543. 1431N 06935W 01466 5017 321 019 192 192 020 01482 0000000000
0544 1429N 06936W 01460 5015 319 023 200 178 024 01478 0000000000
0544. 1428N 06937W 01465 5013 319 022 194 178 023 01485 0000000000
0545 1427N 06939W 01462 5011 321 022 204 168 023 01484 0000000000
0545. 1426N 06940W 01464 5008 319 020 190 188 020 01489 0000000000
0546 1425N 06941W 01464 5006 330 022 186 186 023 01491 0000000000
0546. 1424N 06942W 01462 5003 337 023 188 186 024 01492 0000000000


Vortex coming!!!

[craptacular]

is too fast

[Thunder44]

They've already flown pass the position NHC had 11am, and they don't seem to have reached the center yet.

[SouthFloridawx]

I am wondering if the center is reformed back towards the southeast under the persistent convection.

[clfenwi]

looks like center's at 14.6 69.5 (by the minobs), we'll see what ye olde VDM says

[Thunder44]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 26/05:40:40Z
B. 14 deg 36 min N
069 deg 29 min W
C. 850 mb 1432 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 118 deg 051 kt
G. 030 deg 099 nm
H. 999 mb
I. 16 C/ 1459 m
J. 20 C/ 1465 m
K. 19 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0305A ERNESTO OB 03
MAX FL WIND 51 KT NE QUAD 05:08:30 Z

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow 999 millibars 5 millibar drop!

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
200 AM AST SAT AUG 26 2006

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS A BETTER ORGANIZED ERNESTO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST OR ABOUT 255
MILES...410 KM...SOUTH OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND ABOUT 530 MILES...855 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...23 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF
ERNESTO WILL BE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 999
MB...29.50 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ERNESTO ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
HAITI...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...14.7 N...69.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[craptacular]

Big pressure drop ... 999mb

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

676
SXXX50 KNHC 260554
AF302 0305A ERNESTO HDOB 10 KNHC
0547 1422N 06943W 01463 5001 337 024 180 180 025 01495 0000000000
0547. 1421N 06945W 01463 0002 330 023 190 178 023 01498 0000000000
0548 1420N 06946W 01463 0003 330 023 196 172 023 01499 0000000000
0548. 1419N 06947W 01463 0005 335 022 194 168 023 01501 0000000000
0549 1418N 06948W 01462 0007 331 020 192 168 021 01503 0000000000
0549. 1416N 06950W 01463 0009 335 021 196 160 022 01505 0000000000
0550 1415N 06951W 01463 0011 337 020 196 158 020 01507 0000000000
0550. 1414N 06952W 01464 0013 335 020 196 158 020 01510 0000000000
0551 1413N 06953W 01463 0014 337 020 196 160 020 01510 0000000000
0551. 1411N 06955W 01464 0015 338 021 186 168 022 01512 0000000000
0552 1410N 06956W 01462 0015 332 018 184 172 019 01510 0000000000
0552. 1409N 06957W 01463 0016 333 017 186 172 019 01511 0000000000
0553 1408N 06958W 01465 0016 335 018 174 174 020 01514 0000000000
0553. 1407N 06959W 01462 0016 331 019 180 172 020 01511 0000000000
0554 1405N 07001W 01463 0018 326 014 186 164 016 01514 0000000000
0554. 1404N 07002W 01464 0019 323 012 188 164 012 01515 0000000000
0555 1403N 07003W 01461 0020 320 012 186 166 012 01514 0000000000
0555. 1402N 07004W 01466 0021 323 014 186 166 015 01520 0000000000
0556 1401N 07006W 01462 0021 331 015 184 164 016 01516 0000000000
0556. 1400N 07007W 01463 0022 329 015 184 168 015 01518 0000000000

[CrazyC83]

With the drop, I'd push the intensity up to 45kt for the next advisory.

[NONAME]

WOW I Suspect they will find 60+ Knot flight level wind's in the NE Quadrant where the strongest winds are.

[craptacular]

They just issued the intermediate advisory (were waiting for the VDM) and kept it at 40kts, but said it was better organized.

[sevenleft]

they are flying at 5K feet

flying at 1K at night is a quick way to crash the airplane

Not really Derek. 1,000 feet is the same during the day as it is night. The storm is stronger now, and they investigate in the higher levels.

[CrazyC83]

They just issued the intermediate advisory (were waiting for the VDM) and kept it at 40kts, but said it was better organized.

Kinda surprising. I think at 5am we'll see a bigger jump to 50 or 55kt.

[SouthFloridawx]

Can we get a 2PM position with that map?

[Thunder44]

[HouTXmetro]

The center went down from 14.8 to 14.7 since 11PM

[Aquawind]

I did not expect that much of a drop.. Ernesto flexed the muscles with this evenings convection.