426
URNT11 KNHC 251951
97779 19494 60161 67200 45600 07026 00542 /8022
RMK AF303 0205A CYCLONE OB 11
LAST REPORT
Just for the official word.
Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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craptacular
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Brent
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM AST FRI AUG 25 2006
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DETERMINES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO...
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST TIP OF
HAITI. ALSO AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA.
INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.6 WEST OR ABOUT 300
MILES...485 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT
660 MILES...1065 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ERNESTO ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA...WITH 1-3 INCHES
EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DUTCH NETHERLAND
ANTILLES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...14.3 N...67.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM AST FRI AUG 25 2006
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DETERMINES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO...
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST TIP OF
HAITI. ALSO AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA.
INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.6 WEST OR ABOUT 300
MILES...485 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT
660 MILES...1065 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ERNESTO ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA...WITH 1-3 INCHES
EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DUTCH NETHERLAND
ANTILLES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...14.3 N...67.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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#neversummer
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38090
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
2100 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST TIP OF
HAITI. ALSO AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA.
INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 67.6W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 67.6W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 67.1W
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.0N 69.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.0N 72.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.0N 74.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 25SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.0N 77.2W...OVER JAMAICA
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.5N 82.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 23.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 24.5N 88.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 67.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z
$$
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
2100 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST TIP OF
HAITI. ALSO AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA.
INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 67.6W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 67.6W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 67.1W
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.0N 69.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.0N 72.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.0N 74.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 25SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.0N 77.2W...OVER JAMAICA
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.5N 82.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 23.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 24.5N 88.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 67.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z
$$
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#neversummer
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38090
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM
ERNESTO. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND 48 KT WINDS AT A FLIGHT LEVEL OF 1000
FT ABOUT 40 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...ALONG WITH A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB. THIS WIND WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT A 40
KT INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE CENTER WAS COMPLETELY EXPOSED AT THAT
TIME...AND THE 48 KT WINDS WERE NOT IN SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO A MORE CONSERVATIVE 35 KT IN
AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
THE EXPOSED CENTER IS TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE
NEW INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/14. OTHERWISE...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE TRACK
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HR. ERNESTO IS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM
MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
SCENARIO WITH A TIGHT CLUSTERING OF TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND THE WESTERN END OF CUBA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
GFDL WHICH CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A TRACK OVER THE LENGTH OF CUBA.
SOME SPREAD APPEARS IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HR...WITH THE GFS
BUILDING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ENOUGH TO TURN ERNESTO
WESTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVING ENOUGH OF A
WEAKNESS FOR THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD. THE UKMET FORECASTS A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 120 HR...WHILE THE
NOGAPS STALLS ERNESTO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS NORTH OF...BUT PARALLEL TO...THE PREVIOUS TRACK
FOR THE FIRST 72 HR BASED ON THE NEW POSITION AND MOTION. IT THEN
CALLS FOR A SLOWER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN
RESPONSE TO THE GUIDANCE SPREAD.
SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST
NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HR OR SO...WITH TRANSIENT BURSTS OF STRONG
CONVECTION LIKELY. AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL
FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OR ANTICYCLONE TO BUILD OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS...PARTICULARLY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND
A SOUTHWARD-MOVING CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS ON ITS NORTH SIDE...THE
SHEAR IS LIKELY TO DECREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE
FIRST 24-36 HR...WITH SOMEWHAT FASTER STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER.
THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO THE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS AT 96 AND 120 HR. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS AND SUPERENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AFTER 96 HR...THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE MUCH STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/2100Z 14.3N 67.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 15.0N 69.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 16.0N 72.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 17.0N 74.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 18.0N 77.2W 55 KT...OVER JAMAICA
72HR VT 28/1800Z 20.5N 82.0W 65 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 29/1800Z 23.0N 85.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 30/1800Z 24.5N 88.0W 75 KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM
ERNESTO. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND 48 KT WINDS AT A FLIGHT LEVEL OF 1000
FT ABOUT 40 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...ALONG WITH A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB. THIS WIND WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT A 40
KT INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE CENTER WAS COMPLETELY EXPOSED AT THAT
TIME...AND THE 48 KT WINDS WERE NOT IN SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO A MORE CONSERVATIVE 35 KT IN
AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
THE EXPOSED CENTER IS TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE
NEW INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/14. OTHERWISE...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE TRACK
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HR. ERNESTO IS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM
MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
SCENARIO WITH A TIGHT CLUSTERING OF TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND THE WESTERN END OF CUBA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
GFDL WHICH CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A TRACK OVER THE LENGTH OF CUBA.
SOME SPREAD APPEARS IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HR...WITH THE GFS
BUILDING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ENOUGH TO TURN ERNESTO
WESTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVING ENOUGH OF A
WEAKNESS FOR THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD. THE UKMET FORECASTS A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 120 HR...WHILE THE
NOGAPS STALLS ERNESTO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS NORTH OF...BUT PARALLEL TO...THE PREVIOUS TRACK
FOR THE FIRST 72 HR BASED ON THE NEW POSITION AND MOTION. IT THEN
CALLS FOR A SLOWER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN
RESPONSE TO THE GUIDANCE SPREAD.
SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST
NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HR OR SO...WITH TRANSIENT BURSTS OF STRONG
CONVECTION LIKELY. AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL
FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OR ANTICYCLONE TO BUILD OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS...PARTICULARLY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND
A SOUTHWARD-MOVING CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS ON ITS NORTH SIDE...THE
SHEAR IS LIKELY TO DECREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE
FIRST 24-36 HR...WITH SOMEWHAT FASTER STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER.
THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO THE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS AT 96 AND 120 HR. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS AND SUPERENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AFTER 96 HR...THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE MUCH STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/2100Z 14.3N 67.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 15.0N 69.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 16.0N 72.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 17.0N 74.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 18.0N 77.2W 55 KT...OVER JAMAICA
72HR VT 28/1800Z 20.5N 82.0W 65 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 29/1800Z 23.0N 85.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 30/1800Z 24.5N 88.0W 75 KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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#neversummer
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38090
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
800 PM AST FRI AUG 25 2006
...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST TIP OF HAITI.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.4 WEST OR ABOUT 285
MILES...460 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND ABOUT 600 MILES...965 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL PASSING NEAR THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ERNESTO ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA...WITH 1-3 INCHES
EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DUTCH NETHERLAND
ANTILLES.
REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...14.5 N...68.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
800 PM AST FRI AUG 25 2006
...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST TIP OF HAITI.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.4 WEST OR ABOUT 285
MILES...460 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND ABOUT 600 MILES...965 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL PASSING NEAR THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ERNESTO ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA...WITH 1-3 INCHES
EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DUTCH NETHERLAND
ANTILLES.
REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...14.5 N...68.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB
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#neversummer
-
whereverwx
- Category 5
- Posts: 1109
- Joined: Mon May 31, 2004 10:15 pm
-
GeneratorPower
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1648
- Age: 45
- Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 11:48 pm
- Location: Huntsville, AL
National Hurricane Center wrote:I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 25/1800Z A. 26/0600Z
B. AFXXX 02GGA INVEST B. AFXXX 0305A CYCLONE
C. 25/1600Z C. 26/0345Z
D. 14.0N 68.0W D. 14.5N 70.5W
E. 25/1700Z TO 25/2200Z E. 26/0500Z TO 26/1000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 26/1800Z
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT.
Next flight leaves the runway at 0345 UTC. That's roughly 2:15 hours from now. I hope you all can stay up. I think we'll find some strong winds.
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Grease Monkey
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SouthFloridawx
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GeneratorPower wrote:National Hurricane Center wrote:I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 25/1800Z A. 26/0600Z
B. AFXXX 02GGA INVEST B. AFXXX 0305A CYCLONE
C. 25/1600Z C. 26/0345Z
D. 14.0N 68.0W D. 14.5N 70.5W
E. 25/1700Z TO 25/2200Z E. 26/0500Z TO 26/1000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 26/1800Z
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT.
Next flight leaves the runway at 0345 UTC. That's roughly 2:15 hours from now. I hope you all can stay up. I think we'll find some strong winds.
Stay up, It's friday night no work and a developing TC. Yep I think I can handle that.
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tomboudreau
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...sorry this was o/t-
SouthFloridawx
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SouthFloridawx
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462
SXXX50 KNHC 260149
AF301 WXWXA 06082600301 HDOB 09 KNHC
0141. 2955N 09403W 07316 0476 050 011 159 287 011 07811 0000000000
0142 2955N 09406W 07314 0474 035 009 159 299 010 07808 0000000000
0142. 2955N 09409W 07315 0473 031 010 161 307 010 07807 0000000000
0143 2955N 09412W 07315 0473 033 009 161 327 010 07808 0000000000
0143. 2955N 09415W 07315 0473 028 008 161 265 008 07808 0000000000
0144 2956N 09418W 07315 0473 026 007 161 255 008 07807 0000000000
0144. 2956N 09422W 07315 0473 029 008 161 281 008 07807 0000000000
0145 2956N 09425W 07316 0473 032 008 161 323 008 07808 0000000000
0145. 2956N 09428W 07315 0473 028 009 161 317 010 07807 0000000000
0146 2956N 09431W 07315 0473 022 009 161 309 010 07807 0000000000
0146. 2956N 09434W 07316 0473 021 011 165 285 011 07809 0000000000
0147 2956N 09437W 07315 0473 026 012 165 305 012 07807 0000000000
0147. 2956N 09440W 07315 0474 030 012 163 271 012 07807 0000000000
0148 2956N 09443W 07315 0474 030 012 161 323 013 07808 0000000000
0148. 2956N 09446W 07316 0474 033 013 161 341 013 07809 0000000000
0149 2956N 09450W 07315 0473 035 013 161 333 013 07807 0000000000
0149. 2956N 09453W 07315 0472 036 012 161 337 013 07807 0000000000
0150 2956N 09456W 07314 0473 038 012 161 327 012 07806 0000000000
0150. 2956N 09459W 07316 0473 028 011 161 335 012 07808 0000000000
0151 2956N 09502W 07314 0471 030 010 161 325 011 07804 0000000000
SXXX50 KNHC 260149
AF301 WXWXA 06082600301 HDOB 09 KNHC
0141. 2955N 09403W 07316 0476 050 011 159 287 011 07811 0000000000
0142 2955N 09406W 07314 0474 035 009 159 299 010 07808 0000000000
0142. 2955N 09409W 07315 0473 031 010 161 307 010 07807 0000000000
0143 2955N 09412W 07315 0473 033 009 161 327 010 07808 0000000000
0143. 2955N 09415W 07315 0473 028 008 161 265 008 07808 0000000000
0144 2956N 09418W 07315 0473 026 007 161 255 008 07807 0000000000
0144. 2956N 09422W 07315 0473 029 008 161 281 008 07807 0000000000
0145 2956N 09425W 07316 0473 032 008 161 323 008 07808 0000000000
0145. 2956N 09428W 07315 0473 028 009 161 317 010 07807 0000000000
0146 2956N 09431W 07315 0473 022 009 161 309 010 07807 0000000000
0146. 2956N 09434W 07316 0473 021 011 165 285 011 07809 0000000000
0147 2956N 09437W 07315 0473 026 012 165 305 012 07807 0000000000
0147. 2956N 09440W 07315 0474 030 012 163 271 012 07807 0000000000
0148 2956N 09443W 07315 0474 030 012 161 323 013 07808 0000000000
0148. 2956N 09446W 07316 0474 033 013 161 341 013 07809 0000000000
0149 2956N 09450W 07315 0473 035 013 161 333 013 07807 0000000000
0149. 2956N 09453W 07315 0472 036 012 161 337 013 07807 0000000000
0150 2956N 09456W 07314 0473 038 012 161 327 012 07806 0000000000
0150. 2956N 09459W 07316 0473 028 011 161 335 012 07808 0000000000
0151 2956N 09502W 07314 0471 030 010 161 325 011 07804 0000000000
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SouthFloridawx
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