Super Typhoon Chanchu - Cat. 4

[senorpepr]

Mike I ask you as you know a lot about the tropics in that part of the world so I will put you in the hot seat.

Do you think Chanchu will reach SuperTyphoon status?

JTWC could possibily upgrade it to a STY, although I wouldn't agree with it. (They are currently 5KT below STY status). Honestly, Chanchu is still a category three typhoon and has a good chance at reaching category four, but the window for that happening is slowly closing.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If that eye clears I promise you it would gain 10 to 15 knots.

[senorpepr]

If that eye clears I promise you it would gain 10 to 15 knots.

Unfortunately, a cold front just north of Chanchu is currently beginning to affect the system. The chances of the eye clearing is dropping.

[senorpepr]

Mike I ask you as you know a lot about the tropics in that part of the world so I will put you in the hot seat.

Do you think Chanchu will reach SuperTyphoon status?

JTWC could possibily upgrade it to a STY, although I wouldn't agree with it. (They are currently 5KT below STY status). Honestly, Chanchu is still a category three typhoon and has a good chance at reaching category four, but the window for that happening is slowly closing.

I need to change this... (I'm sort of sleeping on the job or maybe it's this cold medicine...) JTWC has already upgraded it to STY status (high cat four), but it's definately not that strong. Probably a mid-category three now. It should near, if not make, cat four before weakening before landfall thanks to the cold front.

[JonathanBelles]

i thought so

[cycloneye]

Ok edited the title.

[Jim Cantore]

still dangerous by all means

[Hyperstorm]

Cycloneye, JMA is the official agency in that part of the world. The unofficial agency of JTWC is the one that has Chanchu as a super typhoon. JMA does not have this as a super typhoon. In other words, OFFICIALLY it is NOT yet a super typhoon.

If the eye clears out, this one will gain windspeeds fairly quickly...

[cycloneye]

Oh boy this big difference of the distint agencies over there about the intensity forecasts really confuses many people.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Thats why I try to make my own thinking of the winds. Makes it easlier for me to track also adds good learning in knowledge for me.

[CHRISTY]

The GFS indicates that Chanchu will likely get stronger maybe alot stronger PS!notice how far it goes into the deep warm core and compare it to the current analysis.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/06051412/2.html

[Derek Ortt]

JTWC is no more official in that part of the world than NWHHC.

The info is intended to suppliment the official info, not replace it

[Derek Ortt]

this is not a super typhoon per JMA. Thus, IMO, the thread title should read typhoon.

I agree with srpepr that this is a 3, probably still 110KT. Should peak between 115-120. The EWRC is likely ebcause we had a near symmetric rainband surrounding the eye wall. One should read Samsury and Zisper (1995 or 1996) as they discuss this in depth

[senorpepr]

this is not a super typhoon per JMA. Thus, IMO, the thread title should read typhoon.

I agree with srpepr that this is a 3, probably still 110KT. Should peak between 115-120. The EWRC is likely ebcause we had a near symmetric rainband surrounding the eye wall. One should read Samsury and Zisper (1995 or 1996) as they discuss this in depth

A very good source!

Yeah, I'm thinking around 110KT myself. It has some room for improvement, but not a great deal.

[cycloneye]

My proposal to take out the discrepancies and confusion is to have JMA as the only agencie over there and eliminate JTWC.That seems wild from me right?

[senorpepr]

My proposal to take out the discrepancies and confusion is to have JMA as the only agencie over there and eliminate JTWC.That seems wild from me right?

Well... the access to the JTWC's site should be reduced. JTWC's purpose is to provide tropical cyclone forecasts for US Department of Defense assests. They tend to over forecast to ensure those assests are definately protected and to ensure ample lead time to move ships out of the way.

[HURAKAN]

I think with the issue if the storm is or not a super typhoon we have left out of the discussion the fact that there is a major typhoon heading toward Hong Kong.

[cycloneye]

My proposal to take out the discrepancies and confusion is to have JMA as the only agencie over there and eliminate JTWC.That seems wild from me right?

Well... the access to the JTWC's site should be reduced. JTWC's purpose is to provide tropical cyclone forecasts for US Department of Defense assests. They tend to over forecast to ensure those assests are definately protected and to ensure ample lead time to move ships out of the way.

Now I understand better the real function of JTWC.Thanks for the answer to me and I am sure for many who not know all about this theme of the agencies at the WPAC.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think they should be used as a unoffical souce like the NWHHC. NO REDUCING IT.

[stormtruth]

Wunderound has the JTWC scoop. It's easy to find. I doubt they will take it down. It's a matter of opinion anyway. The storm has continually looked stronger than what the JMA has said for the past day or two.