Tropical Storm Alberto

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O Town
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#681 Postby O Town » Sun Jun 11, 2006 12:10 pm

Looks like all the convection is breaking off, and not much will be left to this.
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#682 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jun 11, 2006 12:14 pm

Yeah it looks like now there is a distinct possibility the convection will be completely blown off to the east and there will be nothing but a lingering swirl left behind in the GOM -

the trough may just not get this thing.
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#683 Postby CHRISTY » Sun Jun 11, 2006 12:16 pm

O Town wrote:Looks like all the convection is breaking off, and not much will be left to this.


i agree O Town the LLC is breaking of from the convection...actually its been doing that now for a while i really think by tonight all that will be left is a naked swirl.
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#684 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jun 11, 2006 12:17 pm

CHRISTY wrote:
O Town wrote:Looks like all the convection is breaking off, and not much will be left to this.


i agree O Town the LLC is breaking of from the convection...actually its been doing that now for a while i really think by tonight all that will be left is a naked swirl.


Yeah also - there may not be as much rain as predicted for the FL west coast since the energy will just get blown out into the Atlantic and there will be nothing but a dry swirl in the GOM -

Don't you love Tampa's deflector shield!!!

[ Actually I doubt it - I think Tampa area should get that much need rain ]
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#685 Postby sweetpea » Sun Jun 11, 2006 12:20 pm

When does the next update come out 2:00 or 5:00?

Debbie
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#686 Postby HouTXmetro » Sun Jun 11, 2006 12:21 pm

Well I'm sure the convection can refire over the LLC. Haven't we seen this before?
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[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]

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#687 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jun 11, 2006 12:21 pm

boca_chris wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:
O Town wrote:Looks like all the convection is breaking off, and not much will be left to this.


i agree O Town the LLC is breaking of from the convection...actually its been doing that now for a while i really think by tonight all that will be left is a naked swirl.


Yeah also - there may not be as much rain as predicted for the FL west coast since the energy will just get blown out into the Atlantic and there will be nothing but a dry swirl in the GOM -

Don't you love Tampa's deflector shield!!!

[ Actually I doubt it - I think Tampa area should get that much need rain ]


I don't know folks - looks like dry air is really getting to this system and the cloud tops are warming even in the convection off to the east - I wouldn't be surprised if the rainfall totals are ALOT less now for parched West Central Florida

It would be surprise me if the convection blowup takes place now well east of the center across the Florida Straits, Cuba, and the Western Bahamas - also you have to remember shear will be on the increase which will blow the energy out into the Atlantic even more
Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Jun 11, 2006 12:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#688 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Jun 11, 2006 12:22 pm

If this does break off into the W. Gulf as a naked swirl, then we will need to watch for re-development down the road. Once the trof passes by, and with better conditions, this thing could re-intensify.
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#689 Postby O Town » Sun Jun 11, 2006 12:22 pm

There is a tiny pop of convection trying to fire near the center, but other than that its naked.

Image
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#690 Postby Rainband » Sun Jun 11, 2006 12:22 pm

I will go with the NHC and my locla NWS. Until they change the forecast. Either way we will get some rain and that better than none. Even if this LLC moved to the west it would be worse off than it is now.
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#691 Postby Beam » Sun Jun 11, 2006 12:22 pm

So far, my forecast from yesterday seems to be verifying, from the northward jog, the the upgrade to TS occuring this morning. It's slowed down a bit, though, so I was about 18 hours early with the timing.
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#692 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jun 11, 2006 12:23 pm

sweetpea wrote:When does the next update come out 2:00 or 5:00?

Debbie


No watches or warning yet, so 5 PM EDT.
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#693 Postby sweetpea » Sun Jun 11, 2006 12:24 pm

Thanks Hurakan.
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#694 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Jun 11, 2006 12:24 pm

Can these naked swirls still be considered tropical depressions or storms?
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#695 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jun 11, 2006 12:25 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Can these naked swirls still be considered tropical depressions or storms?


Also what happens if it is downgraded to just a weak low and then down the road develops again - would it still be Alberto? :?:
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#696 Postby WindRunner » Sun Jun 11, 2006 12:27 pm

boca_chris wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Can these naked swirls still be considered tropical depressions or storms?


Also what happens if it is downgraded to just a weak low and then down the road develops again - would it still be Alberto? :?:


As long as it is the same LLC, then yes, it would still be Alberto upon redeveloping, regardless of the location it redevelops at.
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#697 Postby Innotech » Sun Jun 11, 2006 12:27 pm

WindRunner wrote:
boca_chris wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Can these naked swirls still be considered tropical depressions or storms?


Also what happens if it is downgraded to just a weak low and then down the road develops again - would it still be Alberto? :?:


As long as it is the same LLC, then yes, it would still be Alberto upon redeveloping, regardless of the location it redevelops at.


remember Ivan?
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#698 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jun 11, 2006 12:28 pm

WindRunner wrote:
boca_chris wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Can these naked swirls still be considered tropical depressions or storms?


Also what happens if it is downgraded to just a weak low and then down the road develops again - would it still be Alberto? :?:


As long as it is the same LLC, then yes, it would still be Alberto upon redeveloping, regardless of the location it redevelops at.


thanks that is what I thought but I was just wondering - I bet it hasn't happened in a *long* time in the GOM - could be a record set if it does....of course I am getting way ahead of myself, just thinking too much since Alberto seems to be on its way to going POOF!
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#699 Postby spinfan4eva » Sun Jun 11, 2006 12:34 pm

It could develop a new center under the convection too like Jeanne did. Jeanne was almost downgraded as its convection seperated from the center but redeveloped a LLC.
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#700 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Jun 11, 2006 12:34 pm

the center is now due south of the MS/AL line.
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