Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#661 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:08 pm

35.25 knots at the surface if so.
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#662 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:09 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 251704
AF303 0205A CYCLONE HDOB 08 KNHC
1656. 1443N 06615W 00304 5026 120 042 236 226 043 00289 0000000000
1657 1442N 06616W 00305 5027 117 042 236 230 043 00288 0000000000
1657. 1441N 06617W 00306 5029 119 042 234 230 043 00288 0000000000
1658 1440N 06619W 00305 5030 116 043 232 228 043 00286 0000000000
1658. 1439N 06620W 00304 5031 116 044 230 228 045 00284 0000000000
1659 1438N 06621W 00304 5032 116 044 232 228 045 00282 0000000000
1659. 1437N 06622W 00306 5032 115 043 232 232 044 00284 0000000000
1700 1435N 06623W 00305 5033 113 043 230 230 044 00282 0000000000
1700. 1434N 06625W 00304 5034 118 047 234 230 047 00280 0000000000
1701 1433N 06626W 00305 5035 119 046 236 226 046 00280 0000000000
1701. 1432N 06627W 00305 5038 117 046 234 230 047 00278 0000000000
1702 1431N 06628W 00305 5039 118 046 232 232 048 00276 0000000000
1702. 1430N 06629W 00305 5040 115 045 230 230 045 00276 0000000000
1703 1428N 06630W 00304 5041 113 044 230 230 044 00273 0000000000
1703. 1427N 06632W 00306 5042 114 042 232 232 043 00274 0000000000
1704 1426N 06633W 00304 5043 113 042 232 232 043 00272 0000000000
1704. 1425N 06634W 00306 5044 113 038 232 232 040 00273 0000000000
1705 1423N 06635W 00305 5045 109 036 236 236 037 00270 0000000000
1705. 1422N 06635W 00303 5045 114 035 236 236 035 00269 0000000000
1706 1421N 06636W 00306 5046 115 033 232 232 034 00270 0000000000
48kts
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#663 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:09 pm

1700 1435N 06623W 00305 5033 113 043 230 230 044 00282 0000000000
1700. 1434N 06625W 00304 5034 118 047 234 230 047 00280 0000000000
1701 1433N 06626W 00305 5035 119 046 236 226 046 00280 0000000000
1701. 1432N 06627W 00305 5038 117 046 234 230 047 00278 0000000000
1702 1431N 06628W 00305 5039 118 046 232 232 048 00276 0000000000
1702. 1430N 06629W 00305 5040 115 045 230 230 045 00276 0000000000
1703 1428N 06630W 00304 5041 113 044 230 230 044 00273 0000000000
1703. 1427N 06632W 00306 5042 114 042 232 232 043 00274 0000000000
1704 1426N 06633W 00304 5043 113 042 232 232 043 00272 0000000000
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#664 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:10 pm

After you make the reduction wouldn't you want to multiply it by 1.15 to convert to MPH?
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#665 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:11 pm

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#666 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:11 pm

48 X .75 = 36 X 1.15 = 41.4MPH
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#667 Postby mvtrucking » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:12 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:35.25 knots at the surface if so.


about 40 mph
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#668 Postby LAwxrgal » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:13 pm

Definitely some TS force winds have been found, but what about a LLC? Definitely the massive shear surrounding it is to blame for the storm's ragged appearance.
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#669 Postby mvtrucking » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:16 pm

LAwxrgal wrote:Definitely some TS force winds have been found, but what about a LLC? Definitely the massive shear surrounding it is to blame for the storm's ragged appearance.


Looking very ragged
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#670 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:18 pm

cycloneye wrote:They haven't reached the point where the 11 AM advisory had the position.


That is not where the center is. That was obviously a wrong placement...give the LLC now pokinf its nose out from underneath the convection and the recon winds confirming its location.
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#671 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:19 pm

Trugunzn wrote:Thats some strong winds for being far away from center.


Those are very close to the center....look at the direction they are blowing and where the LLC is on vis imagery.
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#672 Postby rainstorm » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:19 pm

i was saying yesterday they would have a hard time finding a center today. with that low off the se coast, im not sure just how much the shear will actually relax. am i seeing outflow boundaries as well?
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#673 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:19 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 251714
AF303 0205A CYCLONE HDOB 09 KNHC
1706. 1419N 06637W 00304 5047 114 029 230 230 030 00268 0000000000
1707 1418N 06638W 00305 5047 117 022 238 236 025 00268 0000000000
1707. 1417N 06639W 00306 5048 124 021 240 240 021 00268 0000000000
1708 1415N 06639W 00304 5048 125 021 240 240 022 00266 0000000000
1708. 1414N 06640W 00304 5048 125 021 240 236 021 00266 0000000000
1709 1413N 06641W 00307 5048 126 019 240 238 020 00269 0000000000
1709. 1411N 06642W 00304 5049 130 020 238 238 020 00266 0000000000
1710 1410N 06643W 00305 5050 134 019 236 236 019 00266 0000000000
1710. 1409N 06644W 00304 5051 139 019 236 236 020 00264 0000000000
1711 1408N 06645W 00305 5052 143 021 236 234 022 00263 0000000000
1711. 1407N 06646W 00305 5053 146 019 236 236 019 00263 0000000000
1712 1406N 06647W 00305 5053 146 018 234 234 019 00263 0000000000
1712. 1405N 06648W 00303 5053 153 013 240 240 014 00260 0000000000
1713 1404N 06650W 00304 5054 162 013 240 240 014 00260 0000000000
1713. 1404N 06651W 00305 5056 168 012 240 240 013 00260 0000000000
1714 1404N 06653W 00308 5056 174 011 240 240 011 00262 0000000000
1714. 1403N 06654W 00301 5058 170 009 246 244 010 00254 0000000000
1715 1403N 06656W 00306 5057 196 007 246 244 008 00259 0000000000
1715. 1403N 06658W 00307 5057 226 004 242 242 005 00261 0000000000
1716 1404N 06659W 00304 5058 316 004 246 246 005 00257 0000000000

Vortex Message comming.
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#674 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:21 pm

VDM in minutes.
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#675 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:21 pm

Image
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#676 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:22 pm

I agree with Airforcemet. The LLC is right under the MLC. In we will likely see a 45 to 50 knot surface winds out of this.
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#677 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:22 pm

they found a center, but the storm could be in sorry shape, which is not a surprise
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#678 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:22 pm

cycloneye wrote:VDM in minutes.


Doesn't this occur only when we have a center?
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#679 Postby miamicanes177 » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:30 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:they found a center, but the storm could be in sorry shape, which is not a surprise
so is this going to dissipate or do you still believe it will be a cat 2 in the gulf?
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#680 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:30 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 251724
AF303 0205A CYCLONE HDOB 10 KNHC
1716. 1404N 06701W 00305 5057 356 007 246 246 008 00258 0000000000
1717 1403N 06702W 00305 5056 342 009 240 240 009 00259 0000000000
1717. 1402N 06703W 00306 5056 332 010 240 240 010 00260 0000000000
1718 1401N 06704W 00304 5055 324 010 242 242 011 00260 0000000000
1718. 1400N 06705W 00305 5053 322 010 242 242 011 00262 0000000000
1719 1359N 06706W 00306 5051 320 011 236 236 012 00265 0000000000
1719. 1357N 06708W 00304 5050 318 011 236 236 012 00265 0000000000
1720 1356N 06709W 00305 5049 312 012 236 236 013 00267 0000000000
1720. 1355N 06710W 00304 5049 304 013 238 236 013 00266 0000000000
1721 1354N 06711W 00305 5047 312 014 238 238 015 00268 0000000000
1721. 1353N 06712W 00305 5046 312 014 236 236 014 00269 0000000000
1722 1352N 06713W 00304 5046 311 014 236 236 015 00269 0000000000
1722. 1351N 06714W 00304 5045 310 014 238 238 014 00270 0000000000
1723 1350N 06715W 00306 5045 318 014 236 236 014 00271 0000000000
1723. 1349N 06716W 00304 5045 321 014 240 234 014 00270 0000000000
1724 1347N 06717W 00304 5044 316 012 240 232 013 00271 0000000000
1724. 1346N 06719W 00305 5043 298 011 240 234 011 00273 0000000000
1725 1345N 06720W 00304 5043 303 010 240 234 010 00272 0000000000
1725. 1344N 06721W 00306 5042 313 010 240 234 011 00275 0000000000
1726 1343N 06722W 00313 5041 309 011 238 238 012 00283 0000000000
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