Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[brunota2003]

isnt there only one plane foreward deployed right now? which would mean only one crew? then if it developed they would get another crew and plane out there, right?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I remember for Rita at least the system that was going to become it...They where flying to another system then they out of the clear blue sky cancled that in turned to the distrabance that was going to become Rita. So yes they can change thing.

[LAwxrgal]

I remember for Rita at least the system that was going to become it...They where flying to another system then they out of the clear blue sky cancled that in turned to the distrabance that was going to become Rita. So yes they can change thing.

Well, we know what happened there, the other system dissipated and Rita became a beast in the Gulf...and we dont need to repeat that story here. So in retrospect it was the right call.

[cycloneye]

No Ernesto at 11 is my thinking but tommorow is another story.

[Scorpion]

I am sure if recon was there this would be a TS at 11.

[Jim Cantore]

I've watched this thing turn from a squall line into a TD during today. I say a TS at 5am.

[Tampa_God]

I give at 2 am Ernesto will be named.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I give at 2 am Ernesto will be named.

no 2am advisory unless watches or warnings are issued.

[Josephine96]

<<<likes when they do 3 hour fixes.. Keeps us on our toes..

[Jim Cantore]

<<<likes when they do 3 hour fixes.. Keeps us on our toes..

I agree 100%, I hate waiting 6 hours.

[flyingphish]

Re: ULL over Cuba. If this moves west in tandem with the TD could it actually ventilate and aid in strenthening ? Thanks

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
0300 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 63.9W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 63.9W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 63.2W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 13.7N 66.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 14.5N 68.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.3N 71.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.0N 73.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.5N 77.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 19.5N 81.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 22.0N 85.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 63.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB

[rnbaida]

Tropical Depression Five Forecast/Advisory Number 2

0300 UTC Fri Aug 25 2006


tropical depression center located near 13.2n 63.9w at 25/0300z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the west or 280 degrees at 16 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1007 mb
Max sustained winds 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 13.2n 63.9w at 25/0300z
at 25/0000z center was located near 13.0n 63.2w

forecast valid 25/1200z 13.7n 66.2w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 0sw 75nw.

Forecast valid 26/0000z 14.5n 68.9w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 25sw 75nw.

Forecast valid 26/1200z 15.3n 71.1w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 90ne 90se 60sw 90nw.

Forecast valid 27/0000z 16.0n 73.0w
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 30ne 0se 0sw 30nw.
34 kt... 90ne 90se 60sw 90nw.

Forecast valid 28/0000z 17.5n 77.0w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
50 kt... 40ne 20se 20sw 40nw.
34 kt...100ne 100se 100sw 100nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 225 nm
on day 4 and 300 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 29/0000z 19.5n 81.0w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.

Outlook valid 30/0000z 22.0n 85.0w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 13.2n 63.9w

next advisory at 25/0900z

$$
forecaster Mainelli/Knabb

[Brent]

[SouthFloridawx]

12
WTNT35 KNHC 250253
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM AST THU AUG 24 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE STILL PRODUCING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST OR ABOUT 390
MILES...625 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...AND A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...RAIN BANDS TRAILING THE CENTER WILL BE
AFFECTING THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAINS AND WIND GUSTS
TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS. ALL INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...13.2 N...63.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB

[cycloneye]

[SouthFloridawx]

That graphic is not correct as it is to forecasted to be a hurricane in 3 days.

[cycloneye]

That graphic is not correct as it is to forecasted to be a hurricane in 3 days.

It will update itself soon.

[cheezyWXguy]

That graphic is not correct as it is to forecasted to be a hurricane in 3 days.

Youre grammer is a little off there, but are you saying its not correct because it says it will be a hurricane in 3 days?

[SouthFloridawx]

303
WTNT45 KNHC 250302
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006

LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS
MAINTAINED CONVECTION IN A SOMEWHAT SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. A BLEND OF
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS YIELDS A DATA T-NUMBER OF 2.0 OR 30 KT. BASED
UPON THIS INFORMATION AS WELL AS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION...THE CYCLONE IS KEPT AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH 30
KT MAXIMUM WINDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/17...WHICH IS AN AVERAGE OF THE LAST SIX
HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED ON A WESTERLY TRACK
BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS MAINTAIN THIS RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION AND TAKE A RELATIVELY WEAK SYSTEM ON A
STRAIGHT WESTWARD TRACK. THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS FORECAST A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND FORECAST A STRONGER CYCLONE
TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN CUBA IN 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...TOWARD THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY CONTINGENT UPON A COMPLICATED
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FOR WHICH THE GLOBAL MODELS PROVIDE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS
FORECAST TO SPLIT FROM A SHEAR AXIS CURRENTLY STRETCHED ALONG 25N
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS KEEP THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTACT AND MOVE IT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5
DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE MID-UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SCENARIO MIGHT KEEP SOME SOUTHERLY
SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS AND
GFDL MODELS MOVE THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW FASTER TO THE WEST...CREATING
A MUCH WEAKER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AT DAYS
3 TO 5. ALL THIS MEANS IS THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE TO
A HURRICANE WITHIN 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE GFDL MODEL WEAKENS THE
SYSTEM OVER CUBA BUT THE SHIPS FORECAST CONTINUED STRENGTHENING
THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED UPWARD
TOWARD THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0300Z 13.2N 63.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 25/1200Z 13.7N 66.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/0000Z 14.5N 68.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 26/1200Z 15.3N 71.1W 45 KT
48HR VT 27/0000Z 16.0N 73.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 28/0000Z 17.5N 77.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 29/0000Z 19.5N 81.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 30/0000Z 22.0N 85.0W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB