Tropical Storm Chris

[Grease Monkey]

Just in case there is a trend. TS Chris will dissipate soon.


TS Chris.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I have a fear that if everyone says SE Texas is safe that it won't be. Why do I have this fear? Probably because everyone this morning said Chris was dead and now look at him. Seems like we jinx the storm everytime we say something like this.

BTW: We also all said this would become a hurricane and it didn't do that either.

See the trend i'm pointing out..

Whole different thing.

[Wx_Warrior]

Definitely not Joe B...He's a friend of mine...

The little engine that could!!! Remember its still got land to go over here guys. Rita, Katrina NEVER looked like this.

[Bailey1777]

Any pro-mets wanna chime in? Is the extreme shear we have been hearing about all day gonna reach him or not?

[Brent]

From the discussion:

IF THE STORM SURVIVES ITS INTERACTION WITH
CUBA...IT MIGHT FIND A LIGHTER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WARM GULF
OF MEXICO AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE DURING
THAT PERIOD.

[FlSteel]

I saw the decaptitation of Chris last night and was just amazed at how quick this thing got torn apart from shear. Was amazed tonight when I got home and found out how quickly it started to build up more convection on the southeast side and that it has persisted for several hours now. I'm just amazed at the dynamics at work here. Love watching the weather, especially tropical cyclones and how unpredictable mother nature can be.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

The deal is when Chris gets in the Gulf it will be a WHOLE DIFFERNT upper air pattern than with Rita.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Any pro-mets wanna chime in? Is the extreme shear we have been hearing about all day gonna reach him or not?

No. Chris is getting farther away from the upper low.

[jasons2k]

Just watched the tropical update on TWC. According to them there is 40-50 Kt upper winds heading towards the center of Chris right now from the ULL to it's NE, and it should reach him in a few hours. They said that this should end that convection on the southeast side of Chris. Right now it's just a wait and see game I guess.

Yep, that's what I am seeing as well.

Thanks for the clarification on the pressure. Back to reality...

[Extremeweatherguy]

If you think this storm is going to take the same Rita track...That's like dropping a snow flake and having it land in the same spot twice

Yea, no way! Rita was late September when ridge was moving out. Ridge is building next week. South Texas!!!!

I still don't buy this or any end track for Chris until we are 1-2 days out. After seeing Charley turn at the last minute (toward where I lived), Frances go well south of her 5 day track, Jeanne do a loop, Rita go from a Brownsville to a Cameron hit I just can not buy such a specific forecast this far out. If the forecast still points to S. Texas next Monday/Tuesday however, then I will be relieved and believe the track, but for now I will watch and wait to see what happens in the short term.

Bottom line: Too many variables that could change that far out.

[Category6]

I am not too experienced with looking at water vapor or any of that stuff. If Chris continues on a W or slightly north of due W path, how is the enivronment compared to what it is now? Some people are saying on here it is about to undergo more shear than ever, while others are stating it's going into a more favorable area? Which is true?
To my untrained eye, the ULL off of Florida's coast seems to be moving NNW. Wouldn't that take Chris closer to FL instead of Cuba?

[Bailey1777]

Thanks KFDM!

[miamicanes177]

If anyone heard TWC...one of the dudes said that 40-50kts of shear plowing towards Chris from the North would rip all the convection from it tonight and probably weaken it. I do not believe that will happen. I believe Chris will be gone from that area before it gets there. I believe it will reach the 5-10kts of shear area and be fine. I'm not sure why TWC is so bearish. Who knows. Anything can and will happen. And by the way, for everyone guaranteeing a mexico/south texas landfall, not so fast my friends. Expect the unexpected.

watch him outrun this ... http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[Grease Monkey]

Any pro-mets wanna chime in? Is the extreme shear we have been hearing about all day gonna reach him or not?

No. Chris is getting farther away from the upper low.

So I guess that doesn't really matter anyways because chris is going to be hit with some more shear ahead of him pretty soon?

[Furious George]

The deal is when Chris gets in the Gulf it will be a WHOLE DIFFERNT upper air pattern than with Rita.

With Rita, we new there would be a weakness in the ridge - we just weren't sure when it would find that weakness. With Chris, a weakness is not quite expected, leaving a sudden jump NW less likely.

However, if I'm anywhere in the 5 day cone (which the upper tx coast may be), I'd still be vigilant. But things look better now for that area.

[boca]

Welcome Wx_warrior

[tgenius]

Here's a semi-dumb question... if that path holds true, due to the proximity to South FL, would they issue a trop storm watch, and if so, when?

[Extremeweatherguy]

the 11pm disco says that Chris will reach the COL and escape shear in the short term.

[jasons2k]

If you think this storm is going to take the same Rita track...That's like dropping a snow flake and having it land in the same spot twice

Yea, no way! Rita was late September when ridge was moving out. Ridge is building next week. South Texas!!!!

I still don't buy this or any end track for Chris until we are 1-2 days out. After seeing Charley turn at the last minute (toward where I lived), Frances go well south of her 5 day track, Jeanne do a loop, Rita go from a Brownsville to a Cameron hit I just can not buy such a specific forecast this far out. If the forecast still points to S. Texas next Monday/Tuesday however, then I will be relieved and believe the track, but for now I will watch and wait to see what happens in the short term.

Bottom line: Too many variables that could change that far out.

EWG I have to agree. Very rarely will you ever see me comment about insight from a Pro Met, as I have nothing but the utmost respect for them, but I just can't emphasize enough that we're talking about models in the 5+ day timeline. A LOT can change between now and then.

(side note - I dunno if Charley is the best comparison b/c there was a significant shortwave on the way that kicked him out - I don't forsee anything like that - but OTOH trying to bank on the position of the ridge axis and strength from 6 days out or so is a setup for a possible bust. I know a few pro mets made this mistake last year with Rita even though it was a different setup than this - still - I think I'm making my point [I hope]).

[Scorpion]

The T numbers have risen again.