Tropical Storm Chris

[wx247]

gahhh brent ya got me!

HAHA! Don't mess with the master.

Who started this thread, huh?

[Extremeweatherguy]

It means the NHC is not forecasting a strong storm in the GOM just yet. Looks like a weak TS into Northern Mexico, but that stands a good chance of changing.

well thats's good news for us on the upper TX coast.

actually the track looks to eventually take it into S. Texas, but I do need to say this...Don't forget Rita (Her track lifted north over time). We are still talking 5-6 days out now and the chance the storm does not follow the line perfectly is greater than 60%.

I hope it does follow that line though so that we don't get more flooding up this way.

[Brent]

gahhh brent ya got me!

HAHA! Don't mess with the master.

Who started this thread, huh?

LOL!

[CronkPSU]

hmmm...looks like 06 cares about as much for climatology as 05 did

[Furious George]

It means the NHC is not forecasting a strong storm in the GOM just yet. Looks like a weak TS into Northern Mexico, but that stands a good chance of changing.

well thats's good news for us on the upper TX coast.

Yes, things look much better for the upper TX coast than they did yesterday. Not only have the odds of a strike gone down, but the odds are also lower for anything major. If things progessed like they were expected to yesterday, it would have been chaos at grocery stores and gas stations over the weekend in Houston.

[Wx_Warrior]

If you think this storm is going to take the same Rita track...That's like dropping a snow flake and having it land in the same spot twice

[Category6]

it's looking healthier on satelite

[HouTXmetro]

If you think this storm is going to take the same Rita track...That's like dropping a snow flake and having it land in the same spot twice

Welcome Joe B

[Sanibel]

It's foolish to ignore the potential waters ahead of this one.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I have a fear that if everyone says SE Texas is safe that it won't be. Why do I have this fear? Probably because everyone this morning said Chris was dead and now look at him. Seems like we jinx the storm everytime we say something like this.

BTW: We also all said this would become a hurricane and it didn't do that either.

See the trend i'm pointing out..

[jhamps10]

although right now it looks like this is good for upper tx, DON'T FORGET ABOUT RITA!!! She was first forecasted basically along the same track into Brownsville, and then well need I say more? Just because Houston is not on the line, I'd take a good bet and say that it is in the cone, so be prepared, and do not forget about this storm!!!!

[FlSteel]

Just watched the tropical update on TWC. According to them there is 40-50 Kt upper winds heading towards the center of Chris right now from the ULL to it's NE, and it should reach him in a few hours. They said that this should end that convection on the southeast side of Chris. Right now it's just a wait and see game I guess.

[Stratosphere747]

You are pointing to no trend...That's the problem...

[Furious George]

It means the NHC is not forecasting a strong storm in the GOM just yet. Looks like a weak TS into Northern Mexico, but that stands a good chance of changing.

well thats's good news for us on the upper TX coast.

actually the track looks to eventually take it into S. Texas, but I do need to say this...Don't forget Rita (Her track lifted north over time). We are still talking 5-6 days out now and the chance the storm does not follow the line perfectly is greater than 60%.

I hope it does follow that line though so that we don't get more flooding up this way.

You may be looking at the 5PM track still. The 11pm track line extrapolates into extreme Northern Mexico, further south than the previous track. But actually, I think the odds the track doesn't follow the 5 day cone (not just the line) is quite high that far out.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

[JonathanBelles]

Just watched the tropical update on TWC. According to them there is 40-50 Kt upper winds heading towards the center of Chris right now from the ULL to it's NE, and it should reach him in a few hours. They said that this should end that convection on the southeast side of Chris. Right now it's just a wait and see game I guess.

i saw this a few hours ago!

[jhamps10]

basically they want chris to be shattered to make sure that they cover their rear ends over what they said early this morning, that he'd be nothing by tomorrow.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

If you think this storm is going to take the same Rita track...That's like dropping a snow flake and having it land in the same spot twice

Yea, no way! Rita was late September when ridge was moving out. Ridge is building next week. South Texas!!!!

[JonathanBelles]

wunderground shows that it went backwards

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 03 2006

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN REDEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF
CHRIS TONIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NO LONGER FULLY EXPOSED. IN
ADDITION...THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FOUND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 43 KT DURING ITS FINAL PASSES THROUGH THE STORM. THESE DATA
INDICATE THAT CHRIS IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KT MAXIMUM
WINDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW THE STORM APPROACHING THE COL
BETWEEN A PAIR OF MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS...ONE OVER FLORIDA AND
THE OTHER A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. IF CHRIS
REMAINS IN THE COL AREA... SHEAR IS FORECAST TO LESSEN BY ALL OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS TOMORROW AND PERHAPS ALLOW CHRIS TO AT LEAST
MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHIPS ALSO
INDICATES THE STORM COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BEFORE NEARING CUBA
IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. SINCE THE CONVECTION AROUND THE STORM IS A
RELATIVELY NEW FEATURE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL INDICATE
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT-TERM...A BLEND BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND SHIPS. IF THE STORM SURVIVES ITS INTERACTION WITH
CUBA...IT MIGHT FIND A LIGHTER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WARM GULF
OF MEXICO AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE DURING
THAT PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/10... A TOUCH FASTER THAN BEFORE.
A LOW TO MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG TO THE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...KEEPING THE
MOTION GENERALLY A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST. SOME ACCELERATION IS
ALSO FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE PASSES DIRECTLY SOUTH OF THE CORE OF
RIDGE AXIS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NUDGED A LITTLE SOUTH
TONIGHT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS DISPLACED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD
AS WELL. THIS NEW TRACK IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT MAINTAIN THE CIRCULATION OF CHRIS. AFTER
THE STORM ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS HIGH
COULD INDUCE A MORE WESTWARD MOTION IN THE LONG-TERM AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0300Z 20.8N 69.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 21.0N 70.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 21.4N 73.4W 35 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 21.8N 76.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 06/0000Z 22.3N 78.9W 35 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
72HR VT 07/0000Z 23.5N 84.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 08/0000Z 24.5N 89.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 09/0000Z 25.0N 94.5W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

[Extremeweatherguy]

You are pointing to no trend...That's the problem...

Ok, let me spell it out for you again:

We say Chris will become a hurricane - - -> he weakens

We say Chris is dead - - -> He comes back to life

We say Chris is going one way - - -> and he may go another

BTW: I wasn't being 100% serious in my post either. I'm not really afraid this is a trend, I was pointing it out in a comical sense, because in reality this storm has done nearly the opposite of what everyone thought it would.