Tropical Storm Chris

[cycloneye]

Fact,he did the 8 PM advisory.

[Brent]

11pm... 40 mph, 1012 mb. No longer weakens to a TD(until after Cuba), but stays a weak TS, then regains weak TS strength in the Gulf... 40 kt at 120 hours and strengthening.

[HouTXmetro]

looks like Chris is now forecast to become a 40 knot storm at 120 hours! <<Based on Brent's post.

what does that mean, significance?

[The_OD_42]

okay, Ive been lurking around here for a while today reading and all, but I have to ask:

is there shear or is there no shear? I ask this because after listening to the Talkin Tropics show tonight, they were discussing favorable, low shear environment ahead of Chris. Other people have also said this. However, theres also a handful of people who say that he will be encountering shear soon. So, what's the deal?

[Extremeweatherguy]

11pm... 40 mph, 1012 mb. No longer weakens to a TD(until after Cuba), but stays a weak TS, then regains weak TS strength in the Gulf... 40 kt at 120 hours and strengthening.

It's official! Chris is coming back!

[JonathanBelles]

hmm...it doesnt strengthen over the loop current?

[tgenius]

My problem is that Chris is north of the points (and last few frames of sat imagery sure looks like he's hooking back WNW after the W track?

[bamaboy]

How do they determine who does the forecast? Is it a group collaboration or basically one guy writes it.

[Extremeweatherguy]

hmm...it doesnt strengthen over the loop current?

I'm sure they will update that later on. They are probably playing it safe now in case it gets heavily impacted by a landmass.

[JonathanBelles]

My problem is that Chris is north of the points (and last few frames of sat imagery sure looks like he's hooking back WNW after the W track?

yes i have noticed this for a day now and the nhc has not noticed this yet. why?

[Furious George]

It means the NHC is not forecasting a strong storm in the GOM just yet. Looks like a weak TS into Northern Mexico, but that stands a good chance of changing.

[HouTXmetro]

11pm... 40 mph, 1012 mb. No longer weakens to a TD(until after Cuba), but stays a weak TS, then regains weak TS strength in the Gulf... 40 kt at 120 hours and strengthening.

It's official! Chris is coming back!

I think he will barely skirt Cuba to the North.

[Extremeweatherguy]

looks like Chris is now forecast to become a 40 knot storm at 120 hours! <<Based on Brent's post.

what does that mean, significance?

That means it shouldn't die out and it should be a stronger TS than he is now once in the Gulf.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 PM AST THU AUG 03 2006

...CHRIS MAINTAINS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS UPGRADED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS
AND CAICOS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AT 1100 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR LONG ISLAND AND THE EXUMAS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 1100 PM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HAITI FROM LA MOLE ST. NICOLAS EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI EASTWARD TO SAMANA. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.3 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...200 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK
THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL PASS NORTH OF HISPANIOLA... AND NEAR OR
OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...20.8 N...69.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

[JonathanBelles]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 040248
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 PM AST THU AUG 03 2006

...CHRIS MAINTAINS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS UPGRADED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS
AND CAICOS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AT 1100 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR LONG ISLAND AND THE EXUMAS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 1100 PM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HAITI FROM LA MOLE ST. NICOLAS EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI EASTWARD TO SAMANA. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.3 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...200 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK
THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL PASS NORTH OF HISPANIOLA... AND NEAR OR
OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...20.8 N...69.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

[HouTXmetro]

It means the NHC is not forecasting a strong storm in the GOM just yet. Looks like a weak TS into Northern Mexico, but that stands a good chance of changing.

well thats's good news for us on the upper TX coast.

[MississippiHurricane]

CHRIS MAINTAINS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS UPGRADED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS
AND CAICOS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AT 1100 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR LONG ISLAND AND THE EXUMAS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 1100 PM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HAITI FROM LA MOLE ST. NICOLAS EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI EASTWARD TO SAMANA. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.3 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...200 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK
THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL PASS NORTH OF HISPANIOLA... AND NEAR OR
OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...20.8 N...69.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

[JonathanBelles]

gahhh brent ya got me!

[cycloneye]

[Brent]

gahhh brent ya got me!

HAHA! Don't mess with the master.