Tropical Storm Chris

[Scorpion]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt1.html

That is NOT the actual pressure.

[jhamps10]

recon will be there around 1:30 or 2 AM.

[mempho]

Anything new expected at 11?

[Extremeweatherguy]

recon will be there around 1:30 or 2 AM.

I can not wait. It will be interesting to see what they really do find.

[MississippiHurricane]

Shows how much I know

[Brent]

Anything new expected at 11?

The only changes I expect would be related to it's future intensity.

[jhamps10]

don't worry about it. we all make mistakes.

[ROCK]

Shows how much I know

good catch though....

[Stratosphere747]

The discussion as usual will give an idea on how much future Chris really has...

[mempho]

Anything new expected at 11?

The only changes I expect would be related to it's future intensity.

What do you expect, Brent? I sort of expected the status quo on intensity or a few more "s" symbols on the map.

[miamicanes177]

I will not be surprised is recon finds a 45mph tropical storm when they go out in a few hours. Convection was just firing when they got the 43kt readings. It has increased and persisted for several hours now.

[ROCK]

Anything new expected at 11?

The only changes I expect would be related to it's future intensity.

What do you expect, Brent? I sort of expected the status quo on intensity or a few more "s" symbols on the map.

I agree until recon get in there in the am......

[cycloneye]

Brent,it's Richard Knabb who is the forecaster and usually the advisorys come out a bit late when he does it.

[Brent]

Anything new expected at 11?

The only changes I expect would be related to it's future intensity.

What do you expect, Brent? I sort of expected the status quo on intensity or a few more "s" symbols on the map.

Yeah, I don't really think they will show much strengthening, but I don't expect them to have it a TD for the next 5 days. Maybe 40-45 kt before Cuba.

[Brent]

Brent,it's Richard Knabb who is the forecaster and usually the advisorys come out a bit late when he does it.

Yeah... I'm waiting.

[JonathanBelles]

I will not be surprised is recon finds a 45mph tropical storm when they go out in a few hours. Convection was just firing when they got the 43kt readings. It has increased and persisted for several hours now.

yes but by then the shear will be affecting it by then but i agree with the strrengthening but it wont be 45 mph yet not for a few hours(at the earliest the 11am tomorrow)

[Extremeweatherguy]

I will not be surprised is recon finds a 45mph tropical storm when they go out in a few hours. Convection was just firing when they got the 43kt readings. It has increased and persisted for several hours now.

yes but by then the shear will be affecting it by then but i agree with the strrengthening but it wont be 45 mph yet not for a few hours(at the earliest the 11am tomorrow)

I don't think Chris will see much more shear than he is seeing right now.

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
0300 UTC FRI AUG 04 2006

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS UPGRADED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS
AND CAICOS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AT 1100 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR LONG ISLAND AND THE EXUMAS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 1100 PM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HAITI FROM LA MOLE ST. NICOLAS EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI EASTWARD TO SAMANA. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 69.3W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 69.3W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 68.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.0N 70.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.4N 73.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.8N 76.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.3N 78.9W...INLAND OVER CUBA
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.5N 84.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 24.5N 89.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 25.0N 94.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 69.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

[JonathanBelles]

Brent,it's Richard Knabb who is the forecaster and usually the advisorys come out a bit late when he does it.

:cries no longer: how do you know who is doing the advisory?

[Extremeweatherguy]

looks like Chris is now forecast to become a 40 knot storm at 120 hours! <<Based on Brent's post.