Tropical Storm Chris

[StormsAhead]

Are they flying at 5,000?

They are flying at 300 meters, which is 80% adjustment

[cycloneye]

Those who haved been posting comments and question at the recon reports thread please post here all you want about this mission.

Thanks for your cooperation.

[skysummit]

Little to no shear right now usually means increasing shear in the coming days. I wouldn't be going nuts over the way it looks right now. Conditions will likely change dramatically before Chris reaches the gulf (If he ever does).

[WindRunner]

Hey please comments at recon discussion thread!!!.

[gatorcane]

*sigh*

Almost a week out.....And the current shear map is causing worries...??

I think there is *alot* of reason to be worried here - the farther we get along in August the less the shear is in the GOM. You will not get alot of shear in the GOM this time of year.....

it had better not get into the GOM.

[x-y-no]

Sorry Luis!

(Jan looks ashamed)

[SouthFloridawx]

Yep sorry here to

[WindRunner]

well ty but I cant get the data to plot right. anyone know why

Same here Aric

You have to copy it straight from the website, as the forum software automatically deletes any consecutive spaces, and two back-to-back spaces are part of the formatting. The link to the minobs is in the spreadsheet.

[drezee]

flight is at 1000 feet; thus, apply a .75-.8 reduction factor to get the surface winds

So to translate...the number to look for is 044...that will confirm the TS

[Derek Ortt]

of course this is going into the GOM. That is clear as crystal with the steering pattern. In fact, I even put out a special post at PNJ alerting to this possibility

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 011819
AF303 0103A CHRIS HDOB 10 KNHC
1807. 1754N 06113W 00298 0013 032 033 226 226 033 00321 0000000000
1808 1753N 06112W 00302 0011 031 032 226 226 032 00323 0000000000
1808. 1752N 06111W 00302 0009 027 030 226 226 031 00322 0000000000
1809 1751N 06109W 00300 0007 025 025 228 228 027 00317 0000000000
1809. 1749N 06108W 00301 0006 021 026 234 234 027 00317 0000000000
1810 1748N 06107W 00300 0004 021 026 234 234 026 00315 0000000000
1810. 1747N 06106W 00300 0003 018 027 234 234 028 00313 0000000000
1811 1746N 06104W 00302 0001 013 026 234 234 027 00313 0000000000
1811. 1744N 06103W 00299 5001 013 027 236 236 029 00308 0000000000
1812 1743N 06102W 00303 5004 010 028 236 236 030 00309 0000000000
1812. 1742N 06101W 00298 5008 001 028 236 236 030 00301 0000000000
1813 1741N 06059W 00301 5011 006 029 236 236 030 00301 0000000000
1813. 1740N 06058W 00301 5014 358 026 240 240 027 00297 0000000000
1814 1738N 06057W 00299 5016 347 025 240 240 026 00293 0000000000
1814. 1737N 06055W 00300 5016 344 024 242 242 026 00294 0000000000
1815 1737N 06053W 00298 5018 345 020 240 240 021 00291 0000000000
1815. 1737N 06052W 00301 5021 342 015 240 240 017 00291 0000000000
1816 1737N 06050W 00301 5024 334 011 244 244 012 00287 0000000000
1816. 1737N 06048W 00301 5028 314 007 246 246 009 00283 0000000000
1817 1737N 06047W 00300 5029 260 003 244 244 005 00282 0000000000

[gatorcane]

of course this is going into the GOM. That is clear as crystal with the steering pattern. In fact, I even put out a special post at PNJ alerting to this possibility

Derek I agree with you on this also - it is going to get into the GOM and graze South Florida, probably passing through the straits.

[Roxy]

of course this is going into the GOM. That is clear as crystal with the steering pattern. In fact, I even put out a special post at PNJ alerting to this possibility

Derek are you not buying that it might dissipate?

[gtalum]

of course this is going into the GOM. That is clear as crystal with the steering pattern. In fact, I even put out a special post at PNJ alerting to this possibility

That'll set 'em off!

[drezee]

We definitley have a center...

1817 1737N 06047W 00300 5029 260 003 244 244 005 00282 0000000000

17.6 60.8

[gatorcane]

of course this is going into the GOM. That is clear as crystal with the steering pattern. In fact, I even put out a special post at PNJ alerting to this possibility

That'll set 'em off!

GOM buoys are showing 88F water temps in the loop current also.

[tgenius]

of course this is going into the GOM. That is clear as crystal with the steering pattern. In fact, I even put out a special post at PNJ alerting to this possibility

Derek:If that's the case do you feel it will totally miss the tip of FL and go through the straits or will it go through the current NHC projected path?

[x-y-no]

We definitley have a center...

1817 1737N 06047W 00300 5029 260 003 244 244 005 00282 0000000000

17.6 60.8

Yep. Should get a vortex message soon.

[skysummit]

of course this is going into the GOM. That is clear as crystal with the steering pattern. In fact, I even put out a special post at PNJ alerting to this possibility

Derek are you not buying that it might dissipate?

Good question....also Derek, I know you're asked this thousands of times, but with the ridge building to the north and warm SSTs in the gulf, do you see an intensifying system in the Gulf?

[WindRunner]