Cyclone Monica - Cat. 5

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senorpepr
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#381 Postby senorpepr » Sat Apr 22, 2006 11:42 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:
Furthermore, the 916mb that the Navy is saying is more realistic. There are numerous papers written by several authors regarding Dvorak estimates to storms, based on the days when recon covered much of the world.

Although I would agree with you usually Senor, I would have to disagree with the above statement. This was an estimate at 18Z (the first timestamp in the image). However I do concur it is not 877 mb, although I would estimate it around 900 mb.

Question: what does "hectoPascals" mean? Is it the same or different than millibars?


You know, you're right. My mistake.

The Navy estimate on pressure is 898mb.
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#382 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Apr 22, 2006 11:44 pm

The 00z gfs shows a near or hit on Darwin!!! It is on the Aussie board. :eek:
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Arafura Sea: TC Monica #3: TC Warning - Darwin

#383 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Apr 22, 2006 11:44 pm

Tropical Cyclone Monica Discussion Thread #1
Tropical Cyclone Monica Discussion Thread #2

Image

MONICA CONTINUES TO ROAR, SO FAR NO SIGNS OF WEAKENING AFTER HOURS OF CONTINUING INTENSIFICATION.

THIS IS ALREADY THREAD #3 ON THIS SYSTEM.
Last edited by HURAKAN on Sun Apr 23, 2006 2:56 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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#384 Postby benny » Sat Apr 22, 2006 11:45 pm

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDD20110.html

It says the storm-force winds are only within 50 nm.. small storm!
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#385 Postby senorpepr » Sat Apr 22, 2006 11:48 pm

I'll go ahead and repost this for the thread...

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 55
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:10 pm CST Sunday 23 April 2006

A CYCLONE WARNING continues for coastal and island communities between CAPE
SHIELD and CROKER ISLAND, including NHULUNBUY.

A CYCLONE WATCH extends west for coastal and island communities between CROKER
ISLAND and DALY RIVER MOUTH, including DARWIN, JABIRU and the TIWI ISLANDS.

At 1 pm CST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica CATEGORY 5 was located about 135
kilometres northeast of NHULUNBUY, and 240 kilometres east northeast of ELCHO
ISLAND, moving west at 12 kilometres per hour. The cyclone should remain close
to its current intensity as it moves further west, just north of the north coast
during today. It may cross the north coast of western Arnhem Land later
tomorrow.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica with gusts to 320
kilometres per hour is expected to impact islands of northeast Arnhem Land,
including ELCHO ISLAND, later this afternoon and tonight, but is no longer
expected to affect NHULUNBUY. The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core may impact the north
coast of western ARNHEM LAND during Monday.

GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are being experienced on the far
northeast Arnhem Land coast, and are expected to affect the area between CAPE
SHIELD and ELCHO ISLAND, including NHULUNBUY during the next few hours.
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160 kilometres per hour are expected along the
far northeast coast, including NHULUNBUY, later this afternoon and continue to
extend westward. GALES near the outer edge of the cyclone may extend west as far
as CROKER ISLAND early tomorrow.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica is expected to weaken slightly late tomorrow but
GALES will continue to extend westward and may develop over the TIWI ISLANDS
later Monday and DARWIN by Tuesday morning.

DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between CAPE
SHIELD and ELCHO ISLAND during today.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low
lying areas in northeastern Arnhem land today, extending across the remainder of
the northern Top End on Monday.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 1 pm CST:
. Centre located near...... 11.4 degrees South 137.7 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west at 12 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 320 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 5
. Central pressure......... 925 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is continues between CAPE SHIELD and CROKER ISLAND.
A CYCLONE WATCH extends west to DALY RIVER MOUTH, including DARWIN, JABIRU and
the TIWI ISLANDS.

The next advice will be issued at 5 pm CST.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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#386 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Apr 22, 2006 11:51 pm

Monica to hit Arnhem coast
April 23, 2006

RESIDENTS of the remote north coastline and islands of Arnhem Land, in the Northern Territory, are being warned to expect the worst brunt of category five Cyclone Monica.
Residents of the Aboriginal community of Nhulunbuy, on the north-eastern tip of Arnhem Land, have already been urged to seek shelter as they prepare to cop the edge of the storm.

NT Bureau of Meteorology acting regional director Mike Bergin said Monica was expected to track, just off the top-end coast, over the next 24 hours.

But Nhulunbuy, the most populated area of Arnhem Land with about 4000 residents including the Gove mining community, would miss the worst of the storm, he said.

"The dangerous core of the system is probably not going to pass over Nhulunbuy, it is going to pass to the north," Mr Bergin said.

"But certainly the outer rain bands particularly this afternoon will pass through the area and the wind gusts in that will be a problem." Mr Bergin said Nhulunbuy could expect wind gusts of up to 150km/h, less than half the 320km/h fury predicted near the core of the storm.

However, Mr Bergin said smaller communities on the northern coastline and island areas west of Nhulunbuy could be in for a far tougher time.

"I wouldn't like the emphasis to come out that everything is hunky dory," Mr Bergin said.

"That is not necessarily going to be so for the communities further to the west."

Nhulunbuy resident Michael Kestel, who is hunkering down in his home with his wife and two young children, said the atmosphere was fairly "eerie".

"We are all expecting it to be really howling shortly," Mr Kestel said.

"The palm trees are starting to bend over, but it really hasn't started blowing and pouring as much as we know it will be. We are just waiting around."

Mr Kestel said residents were well prepared, having tracked the cyclone for days.

The worst of the storm is expected to hit the area mid-afternoon, he said.

The cyclone watch has been extended to the Daly River mouth, including Darwin, the Tiwi Island and Jabiru, as the cyclone moves west across the Territory.

Monica caused wide-spread flooding as it crossed far north Queensland last week.

It follows Cyclone Larry, which caused more than $1.5 billion in damage to Innisfail and surrounding areas last month.


Things should be pretty ugly in those little islands.
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#387 Postby Jim Cantore » Sat Apr 22, 2006 11:55 pm

how many knots is she at?
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#388 Postby senorpepr » Sat Apr 22, 2006 11:57 pm

Hurricane Floyd wrote:how many knots is she at?


Officially... 140-145kt.

JTWC... 140kt.
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#389 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Apr 23, 2006 12:57 am

Still some dispute about pressure...seeing no less than four different readings - 877, 898, 916 and 925...
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#390 Postby senorpepr » Sun Apr 23, 2006 1:02 am

916 is old.
925 is official.
898 is a reasonable estimate from JTWC.
877 is a computer estimate from UW-CIMSS.
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#391 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Apr 23, 2006 1:26 am

The inner core appears to be very powerful. I would not be suprized if a recon was in there they would find a 150 knot cyclone/898 millibars. But like I said we will know.
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#392 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Apr 23, 2006 1:37 am

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... r-nh26.GIF


This is one of the most impressive systems I'v ever seen. This is closer to 150 to 155 knots Katrina/Rita. This is one heck of a storm. Sorry this is my option.


Also it was 320km when the eye was clouded over. I expect with this update a increase to near 350km.
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#393 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Apr 23, 2006 1:39 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/shemi/storm/dvor-nh26.GIF


This is one of the most impressive systems I'v ever seen. This is closer to 150 to 155 knots Katrina/Rita. This is one heck of a storm. Sorry this is my option.


Don't be sorry, I agree that its strength in pressure is similar to Kat/Rita, though as Senor mentioned, two storms equal in pressure and the same in sat presentation, one in Atl, one in Pac, the Atl one will have higher winds due to the background pressures.
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#394 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Apr 23, 2006 1:47 am

The Gfs 00z shows a hit on Darwin...So this could be a mega tracy.
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#395 Postby CHRISTY » Sun Apr 23, 2006 2:16 am

WHAT AN INCREDIBLE STORM....The 877 mb pressure makes me speechless. That is the lowest EVER outside the Western Pacific, and the ninth lowest in world history....

Image

Image

Image

Image
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#396 Postby senorpepr » Sun Apr 23, 2006 2:21 am

CHRISTY wrote:WHAT AN INCREDIBLE STORM....The 877 mb pressure makes me speechless. That is the lowest EVER outside the Western Pacific, and the ninth lowest in world history....


WHOA... STOP.

A) 877mb is an estimate from a computer and has not be analysized by a meterologist.

B) 898mb is the best estimate out there.

C) There have been PLENTY of storms that have been estimated below 880mb.
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#397 Postby James » Sun Apr 23, 2006 2:26 am

She really is an absolute monster, let's hope she doesn't maintain this strength for very much longer. :eek:
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#398 Postby Squeako da Magnifico » Sun Apr 23, 2006 2:34 am

MONSTER MONICA
WINDS 350KM/H
905HPA

IDDP0002
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY

MEDIA: Transmitters serving the Gove area are requested to use the cyclone
emergency warning signal with this message.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 56
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 pm CST Sunday 23 April 2006

A CYCLONE WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities between CAPE
SHIELD and POINT STUART, including NHULUNBUY, JABIRU AND COBOURG PENINSULA.

A CYCLONE WATCH extends southwest between POINT STUART and PORT KEATS, including
DARWIN and the TIWI ISLANDS.

At 4 pm CST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica CATEGORY 5 was located about 110
kilometres northeast of NHULUNBUY, and 210 kilometres east northeast of ELCHO
ISLAND, moving west at 12 kilometres per hour. The cyclone should remain close
to its current intensity as it moves further west, just north of the north coast
overnight.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica with gusts to 350
kilometres per hour is expected to impact islands of northeast Arnhem Land,
including ELCHO ISLAND tonight. The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core is expected to impact
the north coast of western ARNHEM LAND between MILINGIMBI and CROKER ISLAND
during Monday. The cyclone is expected to weaken slightly as it passes over the
base of the COBOURG PENINSULA before reaching the northwest DARWIN-DALY and TIWI
ISLAND area on Tuesday.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced on
the far northeast Arnhem Land coast and Wessel Islands.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160 kilometres per hour are expected to develop
along the Arnhem Land coast between NHULUNBUY and ELCHO ISLAND tonight and
extend further west to MANINGRIDA and GOULBURN ISLAND during Monday. GALES near
the outer edge of the cyclone may extend as far as POINT STUART and COBOURG
PENINSULA on Monday night.

GALES will continue to extend westward and may develop over the northwest
DARWIN-DALY and TIWI ISLAND area during Monday night and Tuesday morning.

DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between CAPE
SHIELD and ELCHO ISLAND during today.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low
lying areas in northeastern Arnhem land today, extending across the remainder of
the northern Top End on Monday.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 4 pm CST:
. Centre located near...... 11.4 degrees South 137.4 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west at 12 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 350 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 5
. Central pressure......... 905 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is now current between CAPE SHIELD and POINT
STUART, including NHULUNBUY, JABIRU and COBOURG PENINSULA. A CYCLONE WATCH
extends southwest to PORT KEATS, including DARWIN and the TIWI ISLANDS.

The next advice will be issued at 8 pm CST.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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#399 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Apr 23, 2006 2:36 am

Ladies in gents the president has left the building :eek:

I was right with my thinking :)
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#400 Postby KWT » Sun Apr 23, 2006 2:40 am

898mbs really is still very powerful for that part of the basin senorpepr?

It does though look every bit as powerful as the sub-900mbs storms though, and a really stunning eye which does now remind me somewhat of Katrina!
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