Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[SouthFloridawx]

097
WTNT35 KNHC 312342
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
800 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

...ERNESTO REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...RAINBANDS MOVING
ONTO THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO
BEACH TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN
THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...125 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...29 KM/HR.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL CROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST TONIGHT.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...
110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WHILE LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL...ANY STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WOULD BRING ERNESTO TO THE COAST AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM-FORCE ARE
SPREADING ONTO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR CAPE FEAR.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
WAS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...
THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...33.2 N...78.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[WindRunner]

I was about to post this anyway . . .

[SouthFloridawx]

SXXX50 KNHC 312347
AF300 2305A ERNESTO HDOB 25 KNHC
2334. 3332N 07828W 01524 5054 095 045 174 174 046 01502 0000000000
2335 3333N 07828W 01525 5051 094 043 166 166 044 01505 0000000000
2335. 3335N 07827W 01523 5048 093 044 166 166 045 01506 0000000000
2336 3337N 07827W 01523 5045 095 044 170 170 045 01509 0000000000
2336. 3338N 07827W 01525 5041 097 042 172 172 042 01515 0000000000
2337 3340N 07827W 01523 5039 098 042 170 170 043 01515 0000000000
2337. 3341N 07827W 01525 5036 098 042 166 166 043 01520 0000000000
2338 3343N 07826W 01523 5033 097 044 160 160 046 01521 0000000000
2338. 3345N 07826W 01523 5033 099 043 150 150 047 01521 0000000000
2339 3346N 07826W 01524 5031 097 046 152 152 049 01524 0000000000
2339. 3348N 07826W 01526 5027 098 047 156 156 048 01529 0000000000
2340 3349N 07825W 01527 5024 098 043 166 166 047 01535 0000000000
2340. 3348N 07824W 01518 5027 099 040 154 154 041 01523 0000000000
2341 3347N 07825W 01527 5029 094 041 164 164 042 01529 0000000000
2341. 3345N 07825W 01523 5032 096 039 172 170 040 01522 0000000000
2342 3343N 07825W 01524 5035 095 036 176 170 037 01520 0000000000
2342. 3342N 07825W 01525 5037 091 036 170 170 036 01519 0000000000
2343 3340N 07825W 01522 5041 088 036 172 172 037 01511 0000000000
2343. 3339N 07825W 01525 5044 087 037 176 176 038 01511 0000000000
2344 3337N 07825W 01525 5049 082 040 172 172 042 01507 0000000000

[Thunder44]

[Thunder44]

Corrected 2334z plane position.

[Thunder44]

SXXX50 KNHC 312359
AF304 2405A ERNESTO HDOB 02 KNHC
2346 3024N 08856W 00027 5038 360 000 290 174 000 00000 0000000000
2346. 3024N 08856W 00027 5038 360 000 290 168 000 00000 0000000000
2347 3024N 08856W 00029 5040 360 000 288 176 000 00000 0000000000
2347. 3024N 08856W 00028 5039 360 000 292 178 000 00000 0000000000
2348 3024N 08856W 00028 5039 360 000 286 168 000 00000 0000000000
2348. 3024N 08856W 00028 5039 360 000 288 164 000 00000 0000000000
2349 3024N 08856W 00028 5040 360 000 290 164 000 00000 0000000000
2349. 3024N 08856W 00028 5040 360 000 290 166 000 00000 0000000000
2350 3024N 08856W 00028 5040 360 000 292 170 000 00000 0000000000
2350. 3024N 08856W 00028 5040 360 000 292 170 000 00000 0000000000
2351 3024N 08856W 00028 5039 360 000 290 168 000 00000 0000000000
2351. 3024N 08856W 00028 5039 360 000 286 168 000 00000 0000000000
2352 3024N 08856W 00027 5038 360 000 286 172 000 00000 0000000000
2352. 3024N 08856W 00028 5039 360 000 286 170 000 00000 0000000000
2353 3024N 08856W 00028 5039 360 000 286 176 000 00000 0000000000
2353. 3024N 08856W 00029 5039 360 000 286 176 000 00000 0000000000
2354 3025N 08856W 00027 5037 313 003 280 192 004 00001 0000000000
2354. 3025N 08855W 00155 5026 339 008 276 180 008 00140 0000000000
2355 3027N 08854W 00299 5017 336 010 262 172 011 00293 0000000000
2355. 3028N 08853W 00531 5011 335 011 240 162 012 00542 0000000000

Another plane has left base for Ernesto.

[cycloneye]

URNT12 KNHC 010006
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/23:51:30Z
B. 33 deg 12 min N
078 deg 20 min W
C. 850 mb 1350 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 070 deg 048 kt
G. 345 deg 017 nm
H. 990 mb
I. 15 C/ 1524 m
J. 19 C/ 1523 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. OPEN N-ENE
M. C20
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 2305A ERNESTO OB 20
MAX FL WIND 63 KT SE QUAD 23:08:20 Z
;

Another VDM with a 2 mb rise in pressure.

[dwsqos2]

102
UZNT13 KNHC 010013
XXAA 51008 99327 70789 11628 99001 24601 28034 00006 24601 /////
92688 21200 30049 85420 17000 31044 88999 77999
31313 09608 80004
61616 AF300 2305A ERNESTO OB 21
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 3267N07888W 0006 MBL WND 29538 AEV 20604 DLM W
ND 30042 000866 WL150 29039 081 =
XXBB 51008 99327 70789 11628 00001 24601 11850 17000 22843 16000
21212 00001 28034 11989 29044 22982 27036 33973 30040 44943 30540
55932 30550 66918 30549 77910 30042 88866 30544 99843 31544
31313 09608 80004
61616 AF300 2305A ERNESTO OB 21
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 3267N07888W 0006 MBL WND 29538 AEV 20604 DLM W
ND 30042 000866 WL150 29039 081 =
;


1001mb; 34 knots at the surface

[Thunder44]

[dwsqos2]

787
SXXX50 KNHC 010017
AF300 2305A ERNESTO HDOB 28 KNHC
0004. 3242N 07854W 01524 5020 313 042 162 162 045 01535 0000000000
0005 3240N 07855W 01518 5019 318 045 156 156 045 01530 0000000000
0005. 3239N 07856W 01523 5016 305 037 180 164 039 01538 0000000000
0006 3238N 07858W 01530 5014 302 036 206 144 039 01547 0000000000
0006. 3237N 07859W 01528 5011 306 034 190 160 036 01547 0000000000
0007 3236N 07900W 01522 5012 320 037 178 168 037 01541 0000000000
0007. 3235N 07902W 01524 5008 320 034 174 170 035 01546 0000000000
0008 3234N 07903W 01521 5006 312 033 170 170 033 01546 0000000000
0008. 3232N 07905W 01525 5004 310 032 176 166 032 01552 0000000000
0009 3231N 07906W 01524 5003 309 031 176 166 031 01552 0000000000
0009. 3230N 07907W 01524 5002 310 030 176 164 031 01553 0000000000
0010 3229N 07909W 01524 5000 309 030 174 162 030 01555 0000000000
0010. 3228N 07910W 01525 0001 305 029 176 164 030 01557 0000000000
0011 3227N 07911W 01524 0003 308 029 176 162 031 01558 0000000000
0011. 3226N 07913W 01523 0004 307 032 176 160 033 01559 0000000000
0012 3225N 07914W 01525 0005 308 033 176 160 034 01561 0000000000
0012. 3223N 07915W 01523 0006 309 033 176 162 033 01561 0000000000
0013 3222N 07917W 01531 0009 313 034 178 156 034 01570 0000000000
0013. 3221N 07918W 01531 0014 317 035 170 158 035 01577 0000000000
0014 3220N 07920W 01523 0016 319 035 176 160 036 01570 0000000000

[Thunder44]

[dwsqos2]

775
SXXX50 KNHC 010027
AF300 2305A ERNESTO HDOB 29 KNHC
0014. 3218N 07921W 01523 0018 315 033 174 162 034 01572 0000000000
0015 3217N 07923W 01524 0020 309 031 176 164 032 01575 0000000000
0015. 3216N 07924W 01524 0022 306 029 170 164 030 01577 0000000000
0016 3214N 07926W 01524 0023 303 028 168 166 030 01579 0000000000
0016. 3213N 07927W 01523 0024 303 028 170 164 028 01579 0000000000
0017 3212N 07929W 01524 0025 307 027 166 166 028 01580 0000000000
0017. 3210N 07931W 01523 0027 305 027 166 166 027 01581 0000000000
0018 3209N 07932W 01523 0028 305 027 166 166 027 01582 0000000000
0018. 3208N 07934W 01524 0029 308 028 166 166 029 01585 0000000000
0019 3206N 07935W 01523 0031 309 028 160 160 028 01585 0000000000
0019. 3205N 07937W 01523 0032 310 030 160 160 030 01586 0000000000
0020 3204N 07938W 01523 0032 311 030 160 160 030 01587 0000000000
0020. 3203N 07940W 01523 0033 312 027 160 160 028 01588 0000000000
0021 3202N 07942W 01524 0033 310 026 160 160 027 01589 0000000000
0021. 3202N 07944W 01699 0044 307 029 160 146 031 01774 0000000000
0022 3202N 07946W 02101 0064 307 030 142 118 032 02200 0000000000
0022. 3201N 07948W 02511 0083 308 030 124 098 031 02637 0000000000
0023 3201N 07950W 02889 0107 305 027 106 074 028 03040 0000000000
0023. 3201N 07952W 03226 0134 297 025 086 058 025 03404 0000000000
0024 3200N 07954W 03554 0160 294 026 068 040 027 03759 0000000000

AF300 is ascending.

[cycloneye]

The misson is over.But already another AF plane is on route from keesler Base.

[dwsqos2]

700
UZNT13 KNHC 010024
XXAA 51008 99332 70783 11638 99990 27014 13508 00593 ///// /////
92597 23004 15507 85333 18800 00502 88999 77999
31313 09608 82351
61616 AF300 2305A ERNESTO OB 23
62626 EYE SPL 3317N07834W 2353 MBL WND 14507 AEV 20604 =
XXBB 51008 99332 70783 11638 00990 27014 11850 18800 22843 18000
21212 00990 13508 11890 15506 22843 36003
31313 09608 82351
61616 AF300 2305A ERNESTO OB 23
62626 EYE SPL 3317N07834W 2353 MBL WND 14507 AEV 20604 =
;


990 mb; 8 knots at the surface

[bjackrian]

That last dropsonde with 990mb/8 kts combined with some of the deterioration on the S/SE side of the storm makes me wonder if it has peaked...any thoughts?

[artist]

according to Mike Watkins with Talkin Tropics it probably has.

[WindRunner]

Wow, no one going crazy over that last VDM that reported a healthy temp profile as well as a circular 20nm wide eye open to NE side? That's a little surprising . . .

EDIT: I see we have some comments while I was posting . . . I wouldn't quite say degrading, at least not yet. NW quad still looks very intense and still intensifying on radar.

[artist]

according to Mike - there can be an eyewall within a tropical storm.

[bjackrian]

EDIT: I see we have some comments while I was posting . . . I wouldn't quite say degrading, at least not yet. NW quad still looks very intense and still intensifying on radar.

Agree that it's still very intense on the NW side...just not as symmetrical as it used to be.

And you're right about the temp profile...pressure up, but good temp profile and a decent eye--who knows what he'll do!

[Stormavoider]

EDIT: I see we have some comments while I was posting . . . I wouldn't quite say degrading, at least not yet. NW quad still looks very intense and still intensifying on radar.

Agree that it's still very intense on the NW side...just not as symmetrical as it used to be.

And you're right about the temp profile...pressure up, but good temp profile and a decent eye--who knows what he'll do!

If you are basing your convection intensity assessment on radar images, remember the radar will be attenuated by the intense convection on th NW side. It may not penetrate to the SE side.