Cyclone Monica - Cat. 5

[benny]

anyone got the ADT/ODT listing for Ingrid? It wasn't this good but I was trying to compare.

[benny]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE
AODT - Version 6.4.2
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 APR 2006 Time : 013300 UTC
Lat : 11:24:20 S Lon : 137:48:55 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.6 / 885.3mb/158.0kt

wow

[HURAKAN]

[Scorpion]

Wow! 885 mb! I know its not actually that low, but still. That's the strongest DVORAK I have ever seen.

[CrazyC83]

Darwin's Katrina = Cyclone Tracy

[Rod Hagen]

This one is twice Ingrid.

The Navy site has Monica at 125kts-916mb At pretty much the same point in its development they showed Ingrid at 80kts - 963mb


Monica:


Ingrid:



Mind you, Ingrid then intensified significantly when it was closer to land than Monica currently is.

Cheers

Rod

[CrazyC83]

Still a Category 4 on our scale with the 125 knots (145 mph) winds.

[senorpepr]

Still a Category 4 on our scale with the 125 knots (145 mph) winds.

Officially it's 125kt using 10-min average method. That's around 143kt using the US standard 1-minute, which is clearing category five.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (MONICA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 11.4S 138.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 138.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 10.9S 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 10.8S 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 11.1S 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 11.5S 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 137.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (MONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE RELATIVELY SMALL CIRCULATION OF TC 23P REMAINS OVER
HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WITHIN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL EN-
VIRONMENT. CONSEQUENTLY, THE CYCLONE INTENSIFIED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS, AND HAS NOW DEVELOPED A 20 NM DIAMETER EYE. MODEST
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 24 AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND. THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA IS FORECAST TO BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. TC 23P WILL REMAIN ON THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
AND BEGIN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
230000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z AND 240300Z.

[wxmann_91]

Darwin's Katrina = Cyclone Tracy

These two storms could not be more different.

Tracy was tiny, I mean TINY. I mean comparing the size of these two storms is like comparing Earth to Jupiter, not even close.

Tracy killed by wind, and wind alone.

Tracy was strengthening at landfall as opposed to weakening.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Jtwc is now saying 140 knots...

WTPS31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (MONICA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 11.4S 138.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 138.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 10.9S 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 10.8S 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 11.1S 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 11.5S 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 137.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (MONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE RELATIVELY SMALL CIRCULATION OF TC 23P REMAINS OVER
HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WITHIN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL EN-
VIRONMENT. CONSEQUENTLY, THE CYCLONE INTENSIFIED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS, AND HAS NOW DEVELOPED A 20 NM DIAMETER EYE. MODEST
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 24 AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND. THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA IS FORECAST TO BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. TC 23P WILL REMAIN ON THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
AND BEGIN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
230000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z AND 240300Z.//

NNNN

[CrazyC83]

140 knots = SS Category 5 - first of the year in the world?

[senorpepr]

140 knots = SS Category 5 - first of the year in the world?

No, Carina in the Indian Ocean was the first.

[HURAKAN]

Mónica has been so amazing that today I created thread #2 and I will have to probably go to #3 tomorrow!!!

[HurricaneBill]

These two storms could not be more different.

Tracy was tiny, I mean TINY. I mean comparing the size of these two storms is like comparing Earth to Jupiter, not even close.

Tracy killed by wind, and wind alone.

Tracy was strengthening at landfall as opposed to weakening.

Plus Tracy was a midget cyclone and had a much tighter pressure gradient. Some say that Tracy may have been a Category 5 on both the Saffir-Simpson scale and the Australian scale.

[CrazyC83]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reu ... on/10.html - Carina peaked at a 10min sustained of 115 knots (135 mph), so it couldn't have been more than 150 mph for 1min sustained.

[Rod Hagen]

Does this radar image suggest an eyewall replacement?



Cheers

Rod

[HurricaneBill]

140 knots = SS Category 5 - first of the year in the world?

No, Carina in the Indian Ocean was the first.

I thought Carina peaked as a strong 4 and Glenda was the first 5 of 2006.

[senorpepr]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/TGPR/saison/10.html - Carina peaked at a 10min sustained of 115 knots (135 mph), so it couldn't have been more than 150 mph for 1min sustained.

I'm sorry... I missread something. I meant to say Glenda.

Anyway... I should point out that 115kt (10-min) would equal around 150 mph (1-min)

But... Glenda was the other category five...

[HURAKAN]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/TGPR/saison/10.html - Carina peaked at a 10min sustained of 115 knots (135 mph), so it couldn't have been more than 150 mph for 1min sustained.

115 x 1.14 = 131.1 knots or 151.02 mph.