Hurricane Florence - Cat. 1

[StormTracker]

So Derek, would you just chalk recon's findings up(SW of NHC's LLC mark)as a wobble?

[WxGuy1]

They probably won't downgrade to 55mph at 2am advisory, because if this is not strengthing this morning, they will have to use 50kt (60mph) at 5am advisory, and that makes it's look like it's strengthening again.

In addition, they could always use the 'excuse' of "there's a chance that RECON didn't sample the highest winds, so we'll maintain the current intensity".

Now, that isn't necessarily mocking the use of that phrase to (what I think at times) falsely justify a previous analysis! Florence is likely to continue to strengthen, so a 2am 'downgrade' may need to be followed by a 5am 'upgrade'. When dealing with media and the general public, you know that you don't necessarily want to do this. Afterall, you'd probably see articles after 2am (e.g. in some late-print newspapers) that Florence weakened slightly. If you're very confident in your strengthening forecast (which seems like we are), it may be better to stick with the current analysis (even if it is a tad high) and deal with it in the post-storm report.

Re: the SW repositioning that will be needed in the 2am advisory... The NHC has been saying for many days that pinning down the center is extremely difficult given the diffuse nature of the center (and, at times, multiple local centers rotating about a mean center). I wouldn't call this any sort of wobble or whatnot -- it's probably just the first accurate center location.

[Thunder44]

871
SXXX50 KNHC 090503
AF308 0206A FLORENCE HDOB 19 KNHC
0449. 2518N 05959W 01526 0038 123 043 172 158 045 01604 0000000000
0450 2519N 05957W 01524 0038 124 043 174 152 044 01602 0000000000
0450. 2521N 05956W 01526 0039 124 043 176 148 044 01605 0000000000
0451 2522N 05954W 01524 0039 124 044 172 156 044 01604 0000000000
0451. 2523N 05953W 01526 0040 123 042 174 156 043 01607 0000000000
0452 2525N 05951W 01525 0041 122 041 174 156 042 01606 0000000000
0452. 2526N 05950W 01526 0043 122 042 176 146 042 01609 0000000000
0453 2528N 05951W 01526 0043 121 043 174 150 044 01609 0000000000
0453. 2528N 05953W 01524 0042 117 042 176 150 044 01606 0000000000
0454 2528N 05956W 01526 0041 117 042 176 150 042 01607 0000000000
0454. 2528N 05958W 01523 0040 116 042 176 164 043 01603 0000000000
0455 2528N 06001W 01528 0040 115 043 176 154 043 01607 0000000000
0455. 2529N 06003W 01524 0039 114 043 174 146 043 01603 0000000000
0456 2529N 06006W 01525 0039 113 043 172 150 044 01604 0000000000
0456. 2529N 06008W 01526 0039 112 044 180 142 044 01605 0000000000
0457 2530N 06011W 01525 0038 113 044 178 148 044 01603 0000000000
0457. 2530N 06013W 01526 0037 114 044 176 148 045 01603 0000000000
0458 2531N 06016W 01525 0037 112 045 180 140 046 01602 0000000000
0458. 2531N 06018W 01526 0036 110 045 180 142 046 01602 0000000000
0459 2532N 06020W 01524 0035 109 044 172 156 045 01599 0000000000

[SouthFloridawx]

[Derek Ortt]

NHC just had the wrong position

still almost certainly will see the northerly turn in about 24 hours

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

228
URNT14 KNHC 090458
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
INBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01239 10632 12468 11716 03038
02240 20629 22458 21815 03041
03240 30626 32451 31816 04035
04239 40623 42434 41817 04036
05238 50621 52415 51515 03032
MF240 M0630 MF047
OBS 01 AT 03:36:40Z
OBS 05 AT 03:58:50Z
OBS 01 SFC WND /////
OUTBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01238 10616 12408 11717 15042
02239 20614 22418 21717 13051
03241 30613 32429 31515 13051
04243 40611 42441 41616 12054
05245 50609 52454 51816 12051
06247 60607 62463 61817 12046
07248 70605 72471 71817 12048
08250 80603 82480 81717 12049
09252 90601 92487 91716 13044
10254 00599 02494 01716 12044
MF242 M0612 MF061
OBS 01 AT 04:09:00Z
OBS 10 AT 04:50:50Z
OBS 10 SFC WND /////
AF308 0206A FLORENCE OB 08

872
UZNT13 KNHC 090501
XXAA 59058 99255 70600 07850 99008 28632 10534 00070 28032 10533
92758 22416 11540 85492 18022 11542 88999 77999
31313 09608 80454
61616 AF308 0206A FLORENCE OB 09
62626 SPL 2548N06000W 0455 MBL WND 11036 AEV 20604 DLM WND 11038
007892 WL150 10535 078 =
XXBB 59058 99255 70600 07850 00008 28632 11949 23606 22850 18022
33843 17422
21212 00008 10534 11892 11541 22843 11543
31313 09608 80454
61616 AF308 0206A FLORENCE OB 09
62626 SPL 2548N06000W 0455 MBL WND 11036 AEV 20604 DLM WND 11038
007892 WL150 10535 078 =

[Thunder44]

111
SXXX50 KNHC 090513
AF308 0206A FLORENCE HDOB 20 KNHC
0459. 2532N 06023W 01527 0036 110 044 174 146 045 01603 0000000000
0500 2533N 06025W 01524 0035 111 043 172 158 044 01599 0000000000
0500. 2533N 06028W 01527 0035 111 044 172 160 045 01602 0000000000
0501 2534N 06030W 01525 0035 109 046 170 164 047 01600 0000000000
0501. 2534N 06033W 01525 0036 110 046 174 160 046 01600 0000000000
0502 2534N 06035W 01526 0035 110 044 170 170 045 01601 0000000000
0502. 2535N 06038W 01525 0035 106 043 174 172 045 01599 0000000000
0503 2535N 06040W 01525 0034 105 042 176 172 043 01599 0000000000
0503. 2535N 06043W 01525 0033 105 043 172 172 043 01598 0000000000
0504 2535N 06045W 01526 0033 110 045 172 172 046 01600 0000000000
0504. 2535N 06048W 01526 0033 111 045 176 154 046 01599 0000000000
0505 2536N 06050W 01523 0033 109 042 178 164 045 01597 0000000000
0505. 2536N 06053W 01531 0032 106 038 178 178 041 01604 0000000000
0506 2536N 06055W 01512 0031 099 040 164 164 042 01583 0000000000
0506. 2536N 06058W 01529 0029 105 045 174 174 046 01599 0000000000
0507 2536N 06100W 01529 0030 106 047 182 156 048 01600 0000000000
0507. 2536N 06103W 01525 0031 104 047 178 160 047 01596 0000000000
0508 2537N 06105W 01524 0030 105 047 176 160 047 01594 0000000000
0508. 2537N 06108W 01525 0031 106 047 176 154 047 01596 0000000000
0509 2537N 06110W 01525 0030 107 046 176 148 047 01596 0000000000

[Thunder44]

986
SXXX50 KNHC 090523
AF308 0206A FLORENCE HDOB 21 KNHC
0509. 2537N 06113W 01525 0031 106 044 176 148 045 01596 0000000000
0510 2537N 06115W 01518 0031 106 045 180 146 045 01590 0000000000
0510. 2537N 06118W 01528 0031 106 043 176 156 044 01599 0000000000
0511 2538N 06120W 01525 0030 105 043 174 162 043 01595 0000000000
0511. 2538N 06122W 01525 0030 104 043 172 168 043 01595 0000000000
0512 2538N 06125W 01525 0030 104 043 176 164 044 01595 0000000000
0512. 2538N 06127W 01526 0030 100 043 172 172 044 01596 0000000000
0513 2538N 06129W 01526 0030 099 044 172 170 044 01596 0000000000
0513. 2538N 06132W 01523 0030 102 041 174 168 044 01592 0000000000
0514 2539N 06134W 01521 0029 099 041 168 168 042 01590 0000000000
0514. 2539N 06136W 01524 0028 100 045 174 170 046 01591 0000000000
0515 2539N 06138W 01527 0028 092 045 170 170 045 01596 0000000000
0515. 2539N 06141W 01525 0029 091 043 172 172 045 01593 0000000000
0516 2539N 06143W 01526 0028 095 042 170 170 042 01594 0000000000
0516. 2539N 06145W 01524 0028 100 042 170 170 043 01592 0000000000
0517 2539N 06147W 01528 0026 101 042 172 172 042 01594 0000000000
0517. 2540N 06149W 01525 0027 089 040 156 156 044 01592 0000000000
0518 2540N 06151W 01524 0027 089 040 174 168 042 01591 0000000000
0518. 2540N 06154W 01526 0026 095 047 174 164 048 01592 0000000000
0519 2540N 06156W 01524 0026 098 046 178 170 046 01589 0000000000

[SouthFloridawx]

[Coredesat]

843
SXXX50 KNHC 090533
AF308 0206A FLORENCE HDOB 22 KNHC
0519. 2540N 06158W 01525 0025 094 044 174 172 045 01590 0000000000
0520 2540N 06200W 01528 0026 091 044 174 168 044 01594 0000000000
0520. 2541N 06203W 01523 0025 095 042 176 170 043 01588 0000000000
0521 2541N 06205W 01526 0026 093 042 178 168 042 01592 0000000000
0521. 2541N 06207W 01525 0026 090 041 178 166 042 01591 0000000000
0522 2541N 06209W 01525 0026 088 041 174 172 041 01590 0000000000
0522. 2541N 06211W 01527 0026 087 040 174 168 040 01593 0000000000
0523 2541N 06214W 01523 0025 086 039 172 168 040 01588 0000000000
0523. 2540N 06216W 01526 0025 085 039 176 166 040 01592 0000000000
0524 2540N 06218W 01525 0026 087 041 174 174 041 01591 0000000000
0524. 2540N 06220W 01525 0027 087 041 170 170 041 01592 0000000000
0525 2540N 06222W 01525 0027 087 041 172 172 041 01592 0000000000
0525. 2540N 06225W 01526 0027 084 041 170 170 042 01593 0000000000
0526 2540N 06227W 01526 0027 081 041 170 170 041 01593 0000000000
0526. 2540N 06229W 01527 0028 084 043 170 170 044 01595 0000000000
0527 2540N 06231W 01523 0028 082 041 170 170 043 01591 0000000000
0527. 2540N 06233W 01528 0027 082 040 160 160 043 01595 0000000000
0528 2540N 06236W 01522 0028 074 037 156 156 038 01589 0000000000
0528. 2541N 06238W 01525 0027 071 037 166 166 038 01593 0000000000
0529 2541N 06240W 01525 0028 072 038 170 168 038 01593 0000000000

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

76
WTNT31 KNHC 090539
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
200 AM AST SAT SEP 09 2006

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER FINDS FLORENCE SOMEWHAT
FARTHER SOUTH...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
RE-LOCATED BASED ON DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.3 WEST OR ABOUT
605 MILES...975 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...23 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND FLORENCE COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE ON SATURDAY.

FLORENCE IS A LARGE SYSTEM AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 998
MB...29.47 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING STRONG
RIP CURRENTS...ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND
BERMUDA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE TURKS AND
CAICOS...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS.

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...23.8 N...62.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Coredesat]

146
SXXX50 KNHC 090543
AF308 0206A FLORENCE HDOB 23 KNHC
0529. 2541N 06242W 01527 0028 065 041 166 162 042 01595 0000000000
0530 2541N 06244W 01524 0029 068 041 166 160 042 01592 0000000000
0530. 2541N 06246W 01525 0030 070 037 162 162 038 01596 0000000000
0531 2541N 06248W 01526 0031 074 039 166 166 040 01597 0000000000
0531. 2542N 06251W 01526 0032 069 041 162 162 042 01598 0000000000
0532 2542N 06253W 01524 0033 068 044 162 162 045 01597 0000000000
0532. 2542N 06255W 01523 0033 060 048 166 162 049 01597 0000000000
0533 2542N 06257W 01524 0034 057 043 176 158 045 01598 0000000000
0533. 2542N 06259W 01527 0034 059 039 168 166 041 01601 0000000000
0534 2542N 06301W 01526 0033 071 041 162 162 044 01599 0000000000
0534. 2543N 06303W 01525 0034 064 045 156 156 047 01600 0000000000
0535 2543N 06306W 01525 0036 063 037 162 160 041 01601 0000000000
0535. 2543N 06308W 01526 0036 062 036 164 160 037 01602 0000000000
0536 2543N 06310W 01525 0037 062 039 156 156 040 01601 0000000000
0536. 2543N 06312W 01525 0037 060 037 158 158 038 01603 0000000000
0537 2543N 06314W 01524 0037 064 037 152 152 037 01602 0000000000
0537. 2544N 06316W 01526 0038 064 038 158 158 038 01604 0000000000
0538 2544N 06318W 01526 0038 065 039 164 164 040 01604 0000000000
0538. 2544N 06320W 01532 0038 065 040 160 160 040 01610 0000000000
0539 2544N 06323W 01532 0040 062 040 162 162 040 01611 0000000000

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

That is about 75 miles Southwest of the 11PM position but, not moving wnw and a gradual turn to the NW and N expected over the next 24 Hours.

[Coredesat]

425
SXXX50 KNHC 090553
AF308 0206A FLORENCE HDOB 24 KNHC
0539. 2544N 06325W 01525 0039 059 042 166 164 043 01604 0000000000
0540 2544N 06327W 01526 0040 058 042 162 162 044 01606 0000000000
0540. 2545N 06330W 01526 0040 059 037 164 164 038 01605 0000000000
0541 2545N 06332W 01526 0040 057 038 166 162 038 01606 0000000000
0541. 2545N 06335W 01524 0040 052 040 166 160 041 01605 0000000000
0542 2545N 06337W 01525 0041 045 041 164 162 043 01606 0000000000
0542. 2545N 06339W 01525 0042 049 037 164 158 039 01607 0000000000
0543 2546N 06342W 01526 0042 046 039 166 164 041 01609 0000000000
0543. 2546N 06344W 01521 0041 051 039 172 150 039 01602 0000000000
0544 2546N 06346W 01530 0043 052 039 170 152 039 01613 0000000000
0544. 2546N 06349W 01524 0043 046 039 166 160 040 01607 0000000000
0545 2546N 06351W 01525 0042 047 042 168 156 042 01607 0000000000
0545. 2546N 06353W 01526 0043 050 040 174 156 041 01609 0000000000
0546 2547N 06356W 01525 0043 055 039 174 148 039 01608 0000000000
0546. 2547N 06358W 01525 0042 054 038 176 146 039 01607 0000000000
0547 2547N 06400W 01525 0043 055 038 170 144 038 01608 0000000000
0547. 2547N 06403W 01526 0044 053 037 170 140 037 01610 0000000000
0548 2547N 06405W 01525 0044 048 036 170 144 037 01609 0000000000
0548. 2547N 06407W 01525 0044 048 036 170 142 037 01609 0000000000
0549 2548N 06410W 01526 0044 050 035 172 136 035 01610 0000000000

[SouthFloridawx]

[Coredesat]

081
SXXX50 KNHC 090603
AF308 0206A FLORENCE HDOB 25 KNHC
0549. 2548N 06412W 01523 0044 046 035 180 088 036 01608 0000000000
0550 2548N 06414W 01527 0045 046 036 184 064 036 01612 0000000000
0550. 2548N 06417W 01525 0045 047 034 182 060 035 01610 0000000000
0551 2548N 06419W 01527 0048 045 031 178 064 031 01615 0000000000
0551. 2546N 06420W 01525 0048 043 030 178 064 030 01613 0000000000
0552 2544N 06418W 01523 0045 046 030 180 082 031 01608 0000000000
0552. 2543N 06416W 01527 0044 045 032 182 084 032 01611 0000000000
0553 2542N 06415W 01525 0043 044 031 182 092 031 01608 0000000000
0553. 2541N 06413W 01526 0042 039 031 180 096 031 01608 0000000000
0554 2539N 06412W 01525 0042 039 031 176 108 031 01607 0000000000
0554. 2538N 06410W 01526 0041 039 030 174 112 030 01608 0000000000
0555 2537N 06409W 01526 0042 042 030 172 146 030 01608 0000000000
0555. 2535N 06407W 01524 0042 044 033 164 156 034 01605 0000000000
0556 2534N 06405W 01527 0041 045 036 166 156 037 01609 0000000000
0556. 2532N 06404W 01525 0041 048 037 166 160 038 01606 0000000000
0557 2531N 06402W 01524 0040 052 035 166 160 036 01604 0000000000
0557. 2530N 06401W 01526 0039 053 034 172 146 034 01605 0000000000
0558 2528N 06359W 01527 0039 048 034 170 150 034 01606 0000000000
0558. 2527N 06358W 01522 0038 047 033 174 146 033 01600 0000000000
0559 2526N 06356W 01528 0038 048 033 172 144 034 01606 0000000000

[SouthFloridawx]