Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[Derek Ortt]

I would also cancel

They can make an upgrade with the WSW wind, but its fairly obvious with the 21KT of shear that there is no RI that will occur within the next 24 hours. Maybe just a sheared depression for a coupleof days. I'd hold off until tomorrow MORNING to send the aircraft (at either 6 or 12Z)

[Derek Ortt]

and the shear is not extreme. 21KT is not extreme shear

Extreme shear is 50-60KT

[drezee]

We have a go!!

887
NOUS42 KNHC 241430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT THU 24 AUG 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z AUG 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-086

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 25/1800Z A. 26/0600Z
B. AFXXX 02GGA INVEST B. AFXXX 0305A CYCLONE
C. 25/1600Z C. 26/0345Z
D. 14.0N 68.0W D. 14.5N 70.5W
E. 25/1700Z TO 25/2200Z E. 26/0500Z TO 26/1000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 26/1800Z
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[ConvergenceZone]

and the shear is not extreme. 21KT is not extreme shear

Extreme shear is 50-60KT

I meant too extreme for development.

[Thunder44]

From now on, post ALL your commets and opinions about the recon mission today here. Thanks!

[cycloneye]

The important thing for this mission is to find the west wind.Let's see if they can close a center or not.

[Brent]

WOOHOO! Go Recon!

[gatorcane]

To me it looks like a nice-looking wave right now and nothing more.

[Josephine96]

Bring on the recon! bring on #5!

[HURAKAN]

To me it looks like a nice-looking wave right now and nothing more.

A LLC is visible already and later on thunderstorms could wrap around it. This is probably already a TD and if the thunderstorm activity can become a little better organized, then Ernesto will be here in no time.

[cycloneye]

From now on all discussions about recon go to the recon discussion thread.

[Thunder44]

The important thing for this mission is to find the west wind.Lat's see if they can close a center or not.

I'm sure they will. Surface obs and visible satellite images don't lie.

[LAwxrgal]

It's highly possible they will find a closed LLC. However the center as near as I can detect is somewhat exposed due to the shear surrounding it.

[Josephine96]

If they have an LLC, then if they have the winds, and decent convection.. we have #5.. should be an intriguing afternoon..

[SouthFloridawx]

548
SXXX50 KNHC 241457
AF303 01GGA INVEST HDOB 01 KNHC
1449. 1742N 06448W 00000 0002 360 000 366 222 000 00000 0000000000
1450 1742N 06447W 00000 0002 360 000 366 222 000 00000 0000000000
1450. 1742N 06448W 00000 0002 360 000 366 218 000 00000 0000000000
1451 1742N 06448W 00000 0002 360 000 360 220 000 00000 0000000000
1451. 1742N 06448W 00000 0002 360 000 344 222 000 00000 0000000000
1452 1742N 06448W 00000 0000 360 000 350 226 000 00000 0000000000
1452. 1742N 06448W 00000 0002 360 000 348 222 000 00000 0000000000
1453 1742N 06448W 00000 0002 360 000 336 222 000 00000 0000000000
1453. 1742N 06447W 00000 0005 360 000 332 222 000 00000 0000000000
1454 1742N 06448W 00000 0005 360 000 336 220 000 00000 0000000000
1454. 1742N 06448W 00000 0005 360 000 330 228 000 00000 0000000000
1455 1742N 06448W 00000 0004 360 000 336 226 000 00000 0000000000
1455. 1742N 06448W 00000 0004 360 000 334 228 000 00000 0000000000
1456 1742N 06448W 00000 0004 360 000 334 236 000 00000 0000000000
1456. 1742N 06447W 00000 0003 360 000 336 236 000 00000 0000000000
1457 1742N 06448W 00000 0005 360 000 332 238 000 00000 0000000000
1457. 1742N 06447W 00000 0006 360 000 310 238 000 00000 0000000000
1458 1742N 06447W 00000 0004 360 000 310 232 000 00000 0000000000
1458. 1742N 06448W 00000 0004 360 000 316 230 000 00000 0000000000
1459 1742N 06448W 00000 0003 360 000 318 232 000 00000 0000000000

[Thunder44]

Barbados and St. Lucia have been reporting sustained winds of 30 to 35 mph this morning and gusts over 40mph. I'll be suprised if they don't find the winds.

[SouthFloridawx]

The Plane has started it's engines and is getting ready to leave...

[cycloneye]

Remember folks,all questions and discussions about the mission,you can post them at the recon discussion thread.

[SouthFloridawx]

SXXX50 KNHC 241507
AF303 01GGA INVEST HDOB 02 KNHC
1459. 1742N 06448W 00000 0002 360 000 316 226 000 00000 0000000000
1500 1742N 06448W 00000 0003 360 000 316 226 000 00000 0000000000
1500. 1742N 06448W 00000 0002 360 000 312 230 000 00000 0000000000
1501 1742N 06448W 00000 0001 360 000 304 232 000 00000 0000000000
1501. 1742N 06448W 00000 5001 360 000 300 236 000 00000 0000000000
1502 1742N 06449W 00000 5004 360 000 300 234 000 00000 0000000000
1502. 1742N 06449W 00000 5007 360 000 298 236 000 00000 0000000000
1503 1742N 06449W 00001 5012 360 000 304 236 000 00000 0000000000
1503. 1742N 06449W 00000 5010 360 000 310 236 000 00000 0000000000
1504 1742N 06449W 00000 5010 360 000 310 232 000 00000 0000000000
1504. 1742N 06449W 00000 5010 360 000 306 228 000 00000 0000000000
1505 1742N 06449W 00000 5010 360 000 308 232 000 00000 0000000000
1505. 1742N 06449W 00000 5010 360 000 310 234 000 00000 0000000000
1506 1742N 06449W 00000 5010 360 000 310 232 000 00000 0000000000
1506. 1742N 06449W 00000 5010 360 000 306 228 000 00000 0000000000
1507 1742N 06449W 00003 5013 360 000 308 236 000 00000 0000000000
1507. 1742N 06449W 00013 5010 095 010 290 244 014 00013 0000000000
1508 1742N 06447W 00171 0014 096 013 270 236 014 00195 0000000000
1508. 1742N 06446W 00403 0032 088 014 250 222 014 00450 0000000000
1509 1742N 06445W 00781 0059 087 015 222 200 015 00861 0000000000

[cycloneye]

Plane is in the air now.