Tropical Storm Beryl

[Brent]

Of course it developed... I give up.

[Noles2006]

:wall:

Of course it developed... I give up.

lol. I feel your pain. I gave this no chance of developing before I went to bed. Doh!

[skysummit]

Wow...they're bringing it to 55kts at landfall. From the 11 am Storm Discussion:

GIVEN THIS FAVORABLE DEVELOPING OUTFLOW
PATTERN... THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1500Z 32.5N 73.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 33.3N 73.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 33.9N 74.1W 40 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 34.7N 74.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 20/1200Z 35.5N 75.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 21/1200Z 36.9N 74.7W 55 KT
96HR VT 22/1200Z 38.5N 71.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 23/1200Z 42.0N 63.0W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

[SWFLA_CANE]

Looks like it will make it to TS status...any chance of it making hurricane?

[KWT]

It's track is very similar to hurricane Alex in 2004 and at the moment i wouldn't be suprised if it got upto a hurricane eventually though it'll be close as to whether it'll make landfall.

[Regit]

Looks like it will make it to TS status...any chance of it making hurricane?

Considering that NHC has it getting to 55 kt, I'd say it's a definite possibility. Please, though, no wagering!

[Tampa_God]

Who will make it to the NC Coast, TD2 or the front coming from the NW?

[cheezyWXguy]

depends on how fast it strengthens...these are my forecast chances:
Tropical Storm:90%
Hurricane:40%
Major Hurricane:5%
CAT 4:.1%
CAT 5: 0%

[Jim Cantore]

I think it will hit cooler water before it gets a chance to

[shaggy]

well yesterday i was saying that if this thing developed it could possibly get stronger more quickly cause of the GS.It will track N along the GS so it will need to watched very closely!Hopefully it will speed up and run out of time before reaching the OBX.

[brunota2003]

hmmm...Hurricane could be possible...depending on how strong recon finds it and how quick it becomes organized...its a sit-and-wait game...I'm curious about that UL that could change the shift...

[shaggy]

hmmm...Hurricane could be possible...depending on how strong recon finds it and how quick it becomes organized...its a sit-and-wait game...I'm curious about that UL that could change the shift...

If my memory serves me correct this is what happened with Fran..an UL low moved SW thru georgia swinging Fran on a more NNW track.We will have to see what starts to unfold hopefully the forecast track is correct but always watchful.

[WindRunner]

Since this hasn't been posted yet . . . an excellent discussion from Stewart:

WTNT42 KNHC 181454
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA...ALONG WITH INFORMATION
FROM SURROUNDING BUOYS...INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 250 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST HAS BECOME MUCH
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. BANDING FEATURES HAVE IMPROVED IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE WHERE AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT OVERPASS
INDICATED SEVERAL 20-25 KT UNCONTAMINATED WIND VECTORS.
THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM AS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 360/04...MAINLY
DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER RELATIVE TO THE DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE PATTERN. HOWEVER...
LONG TERM SATELLITE LOOPS AND MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT A GENERAL
SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING FOR THE PAST 6-9 HOURS. THE
DEPRESSION IS CAUGHT IN A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHOSE AXIS
LIES ALONG ABOUT 35N LATITUDE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE KEYED
ON A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 200 NMI NORTHEAST OF
TD-2. THAT SYSTEM SHOWS NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT. THE ONLY MODELS
THAT HAVE INITIALIZED THIS SYSTEM WITH ANY REASONABLE ACCURACY
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN THE NAM AND UKMET MODELS. THE 3
GFS-BASED BAM MODELS ARE ALMOST ON TOP OF EACH OTHER AND TAKE THE
CYCLONE INTO NORTH CAROLINA NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT IN 36-48 HOURS. THE
NAM AND UKMET MOVE THE SYSTEM OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE LATTER SCENARIO IS
PREFERRED AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW FAR SOUTH
AN UPPER-LOW WILL DIG THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE DEPRESSION. IF THE UPPER-LOW DIGS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN
FORECAST BY THE MODELS...THEN A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SIMILAR
TO THE BAM MODELS COULD OCCUR. DUE TO THE THIS UNCERTAINTY...A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH CAROLINA.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT TRICKY. THE SHIPS MODEL ONLY
BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO ABOUT 45 KT IN 48 HOURS. HOWEVER... THIS
CONSERVATIVE INTENSITY FORECAST APPEARS TO BE DUE IN PART TO POORLY
INITIALIZED SST CONDITIONS. THE SHIPS MODEL CURRENTLY INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS OVER 80F SSTS...WHEREAS SURROUNDING SHIP AND BUOY DATA
INDICATE SSTS ARE 82-83F UNDER THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE. IN
ADDITION...THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WILL BE POOR AT BEST AND... THEREFORE... A NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTING
FACTOR. IN CONTRAST...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CIRRUS
OUTFLOW HAS BEEN EXPANDING TO THE NORTHWEST... WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO ENHANCE THE
OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH. GIVEN THIS FAVORABLE DEVELOPING OUTFLOW
PATTERN... THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1500Z 32.5N 73.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 33.3N 73.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 33.9N 74.1W 40 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 34.7N 74.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 20/1200Z 35.5N 75.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 21/1200Z 36.9N 74.7W 55 KT
96HR VT 22/1200Z 38.5N 71.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 23/1200Z 42.0N 63.0W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[OuterBanker]

Hmm, it seems that the BAM and UKMET are the only models that picked up Beryl, the other models picked up a low that didn't develop a couple hundred miles away. So much for the bad BAM. Interesting reading in the 11:00 am discussion.

MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE KEYED
ON A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 200 NMI NORTHEAST OF
TD-2. THAT SYSTEM SHOWS NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT. THE ONLY MODELS
THAT HAVE INITIALIZED THIS SYSTEM WITH ANY REASONABLE ACCURACY
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN THE NAM AND UKMET MODELS. THE 3
GFS-BASED BAM MODELS ARE ALMOST ON TOP OF EACH OTHER AND TAKE THE
CYCLONE INTO NORTH CAROLINA NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT IN 36-48 HOURS. THE
NAM AND UKMET MOVE THE SYSTEM OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE LATTER SCENARIO IS
PREFERRED AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW FAR SOUTH
AN UPPER-LOW WILL DIG THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE DEPRESSION. IF THE UPPER-LOW DIGS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN
FORECAST BY THE MODELS...THEN A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SIMILAR
TO THE BAM MODELS COULD OCCUR. DUE TO THE THIS UNCERTAINTY...A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH CAROLINA.

[drezee]

More frames now!!

Zoomed in Visible of TD#2

[curtadams]

Oddly enough OuterBanker, the NAM has been the best so far with the two systems we've had.

But the worst with the 10 systems we haven't had.

[hiflyer]

YEAH Two things
1 No Florida finally
2 Stewart is at the wheel right now...

[Jim Cantore]

Oddly enough OuterBanker, the NAM has been the best so far with the two systems we've had.

But the worst with the 10 systems we haven't had.

Invests: 536
storms: 2

[HurricaneHunter914]

Wow, I just woke up and I come here to find TD #2. I was so happy I hugged my dad.

[Jim Cantore]

Wow, I just woke up and I come here to find TD #2. I was so happy I hugged my dad.

The only reason I'm happy is because it will shut up the season cancels for a while.