Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[28_Storms]

This meets the criteria of a tropical storm. What do you people want the structure of a cat 5?

[HURAKAN]

[WindRunner]

This meets the critera of a tropical storm. What do you people want the structure of a cat 5?

This actually meets the criteria of a subtropical storm. It is barely warm core, and actually even warmer in some of its feeder bands than in and near its core.

[curtadams]

I think the dry air just snuffed it. Until about an hour ago you could see convection spewing out of the center and getting sheared off to the east. Then it stops and you just see the pre-existing convection drifting away.

[mvtrucking]

Can it really snow in the keys?

[drezee]

It's official!

876
WHXX01 KWBC 111333
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO (AL012006) ON 20060611 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060611 1200 060612 0000 060612 1200 060613 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.6N 87.9W 25.6N 88.3W 27.0N 87.5W 27.6N 85.6W
BAMM 23.6N 87.9W 25.1N 88.9W 25.7N 89.3W 25.5N 89.7W
A98E 23.6N 87.9W 24.7N 89.1W 25.9N 89.4W 26.6N 89.2W
LBAR 23.6N 87.9W 25.4N 88.7W 27.3N 88.6W 28.8N 87.3W
SHIP 40KTS 45KTS 49KTS 53KTS
DSHP 40KTS 45KTS 49KTS 53KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060613 1200 060614 1200 060615 1200 060616 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.9N 83.0W 32.2N 75.5W 40.9N 64.8W 49.0N 47.2W
BAMM 24.9N 90.4W 24.2N 91.6W 23.9N 93.0W 24.0N 95.1W
A98E 26.5N 88.6W 29.1N 84.3W 32.7N 76.0W 42.1N 63.6W
LBAR 30.0N 85.0W 33.1N 77.6W 41.0N 66.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 55KTS 59KTS 61KTS 52KTS
DSHP 45KTS 48KTS 50KTS 41KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.6N LONCUR = 87.9W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 22.5N LONM12 = 86.3W DIRM12 = 313DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 21.0N LONM24 = 85.3W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 125NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[HURAKAN]

YES!!!

[28_Storms]

The winds are there - it doesn't have to wrap around to be called a storm. That is required for a cane. Can someone tell me why this isn't being called a storm yet?

Edit: Nevermind I was right

[cmdebbie]

Can someone tell me why this isn't being called a storm yet?

I think it is now.

[wzrgirl1]

Can someone tell me why this isn't being called a storm yet?

I think it is now.

just checked the NRL site.......still showing noname

[canegrl04]

Its been a hard fight,but by golly Alberto made it

[WindRunner]

And at 40kts as well! It's about time . . .

[WindRunner]

Can someone tell me why this isn't being called a storm yet?

I think it is now.

just checked the NRL site.......still showing noname

Check again . . . it's up.

[cycloneye]

The plane will depart St Croix around noon EDT and arrive near the disturbance around 2 PM EDT.

SUSPECT AREA
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 24/1600Z
D. 11.5N 59.0W
E. 24/1600Z TO 2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


When the data from the plane starts to come in here I say to the members to post at the recon discussion thread that will be available to then let the data flow without interruptions.

[Josephine96]

Bring on the recon and bring on #5 Luis

[ConvergenceZone]

they will more than likely cancel this.

[cycloneye]

Bring on the recon and bring on #5 Luis

Well,until right now,the mission is on,but very soon we will know if they haved canceled the mission.

[tomboudreau]

they will more than likely cancel this.

Why? I havent had time to see any satellite images or anything.

[ConvergenceZone]

they will more than likely cancel this.

Why? I havent had time to see any satellite images or anything.

because the storm is ALOT less organized this morning with extreme shear in the Carib.

[Thunder44]

I don't think they will cancel the mission. The storm is actually better organized at the surface due the LLC forming.