Cyclone Monica - Cat. 5

x-y-no · #181 Postby **x-y-no** » Fri Apr 21, 2006 4:21 pm

I thought we had an image size rule ...

benny · #182 Postby **benny** » Fri Apr 21, 2006 4:27 pm

x-y-no wrote:I thought we had an image size rule ...

get broadband!

seriously someone wrote on another thread that we should just post thumbnails.. not exactly an easy thing to do. maybe we could post an image and then somehow the server is smart enough to thumbnail it.. ??

#183 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Apr 21, 2006 4:45 pm

HOW THINGS CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY, LOOK AT MONICA FOR EXAMPLE:

APRIL 18, 2006:

APRIL 19, 2006:

APRIL 21, 2006:

#184 Postby **P.K.** » Fri Apr 21, 2006 4:58 pm

benny wrote:
x-y-no wrote:I thought we had an image size rule ...

get broadband!

It is the file size in terms of kB that is the problem for some of us rather than the time it takes to load up with caps on broadband use. :wink:

Anyway. here is the latest high seas warning.

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 1930 UTC 21 APRIL 2006

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica estimated within 25 nautical miles of
12.8 S 139.5 E moving NORTHWEST at 3 knots. Central pressure 945 hPa.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 110 nautical miles in the
southern semicircle.

FORECAST
Sustained winds to 95 knots near centre increasing to 110 knots within 12 to 24
hours.
Winds above 64 knots within 25 nautical miles of centre with very high to
phenomenal seas.
Winds above 48 knots within 50 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high
seas and moderate to heavy swell.
Winds above 34 knots within 90 nautical miles of centre, extending to 110
nautical miles in the southern semicircle, with rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell.

0600 UTC 22 Apr: centre within 50 nautical miles of 12.9 S 138.8 E.
940 hPa. Winds to 105 knots near centre.
1800 UTC 22 Apr: centre within 85 nautical miles of 12.7 S 137.8 E.
935 hPa. Winds to 110 knots near centre.

REMARKS
Ships in the general area please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

--------------------------

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20060421/1800Z
TCAC: DARWIN
TC: MONICA
NR: 20
PSN: S1248 E13930
MOV: NW 5KT
C: 945HPA
MAX WIND: 95KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 22/0000 S1248 E13909
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 100KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 22/0600 S1253 E13849
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 105KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 22/1200 S1245 E13823
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 110KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 22/1800 S1242 E13747
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 110KT
NXT MSG: 20060422/0130Z

x-y-no · #185 Postby **x-y-no** » Fri Apr 21, 2006 5:06 pm

benny wrote:
x-y-no wrote:I thought we had an image size rule ...

get broadband!

seriously someone wrote on another thread that we should just post thumbnails.. not exactly an easy thing to do. maybe we could post an image and then somehow the server is smart enough to thumbnail it.. ??

I have broadband. That's not the issue.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=83414

Another thing that will change is the posting of images.Some members post images that are very large that we have to scroll to look at them at the post.What we will say to the members is to post links to the images to not hurt the bandwidth of the site.

benny · #186 Postby **benny** » Fri Apr 21, 2006 5:06 pm

Does anyone know the longest forecast that Australia puts out on TCs? I can't seem to find one more than about 24 hours.. which isn't very long at all. We all know that there is no skill in intensity forecasting but for track it is hard to believe there is nothing beyond a day (besides JTWC...)

#187 Postby **P.K.** » Fri Apr 21, 2006 5:16 pm

24 hours is as far out as these forecasts go. Although Brisbane do also include positions up to 48 hours in bulletins not posted on their site.

#188 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Apr 21, 2006 5:26 pm

Ok HURAKAN time is running out for this thread to be open as page 10 nears it's end.So prepare soon to make a new thread with the same title.The link of this thread will then be posted at the first post of the new thread.

#189 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Apr 21, 2006 5:32 pm

Ok HURAKAN time is running out for this thread to be open as page 10 nears it's end.So prepare soon to make a new thread with the same title.The link of this thread will then be posted at the first post of the new thread.

Just curious - why wouldn't the moderator do this?

#190 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Apr 21, 2006 5:50 pm

Tropical Cyclone Monica Discussion Thread #1

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 45
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 8:00 am CST Saturday 22 April 2006

A CYCLONE WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities between PORT
ROPER and ELCHO ISLAND, including NHULUNBUY and ALYANGULA.

A CYCLONE WATCH extends west for coastal and island communities between ELCHO
ISLAND and POINT STUART, including COBOURG PENINSULA.

At 7 am CST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica CATEGORY 4 was located about 290
kilometres east of Nhulunbuy, and 350 kilometres east northeast of Alyangula,
moving northwest at 5 kilometres per hour. The cyclone is slowly intensifying
and is expected to move slowly west northwest across the Gulf of Carpentaria.

GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between
GROOTE EYLANDT and ELCHO ISLAND, including NHULUNBUY and ALYANGULA, late this
afternoon or this evening. GALES may increase to DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to
160 kilometres per hour in this area tonight as the cyclone moves closer to the
coast. GALES near the outer edge of the cyclone may extend as far south as PORT
ROPER tonight.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica with gusts to 290
kilometres per hour may approach the northeast Arnhem Land coast early on
Sunday.

GALES may extend further west into Arnhem land and along the coast to POINT
STUART, including COBOURG PENINSULA later on Sunday.

DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between
GROOTE EYLANDT and ELCHO ISLAND tonight and on Sunday.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low
lying areas on Sunday in northeastern Arnhem land.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 7 am CST:
. Centre located near...... 12.7 degrees South 139.4 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the northwest at 5 kilometres per hour
. Wind gusts near centre... 260 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 4
. Central pressure......... 945 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is now current between PORT ROPER and ELCHO ISLAND.
A CYCLONE WATCH extends west to POINT STUART, including COBOURG PENINSULA.

The next advice will be issued at 11 am CST Saturday.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

20 KPH SHORT OF CATEGORY 5 STATUS.

#191 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Apr 21, 2006 5:51 pm

Luis, close this one. The new thread is ready for Monica.

DoctorHurricane2003 · #192 Postby **DoctorHurricane2003** » Fri Apr 21, 2006 5:54 pm

First off, you forgot a "2" Please go back and change that.

First time we've done it, and I automatically get confused and want to write a reply saying "There is already a thread on this at blah blah" Grrr

Anyways, looks like it is really strengthening....just greater than halfway through the category 4 range...I've gotta say, I didn't think it would become a category 5, but it is now looking like a real possibility.

For those that don't know, a category 5 has maximum wind gusts near the centre of greater than 280 km/h

#193 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Apr 21, 2006 5:55 pm

21/2033 UTC 13.0S 139.5E T6.0/6.0 MONICA -- South Pacific Ocean

BoM and JTWC have been ahead of Dvorak, but now it has catched up. 6.0 or 115 knots.

Rod Hagen · #194 Postby **Rod Hagen** » Fri Apr 21, 2006 7:28 pm

Not much in the way of "offset" now!

Rod

#195 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Apr 21, 2006 7:40 pm

MONICA SITS EXACTLY OVER THE NORTH OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. NEITHER THE RADAR OF WEIPA NOR THE RADAR OF GOVE CAN REACH THE CENTER, JUST THE OUTER BANDS.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #196 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Apr 21, 2006 8:12 pm

If that eye clears out we might be seeing a cat5 not only on the Aussie scale. But also one on the ss to.

Jim Cantore · #197 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Fri Apr 21, 2006 8:30 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:If that eye clears out we might be seeing a cat5 not only on the Aussie scale. But also one on the ss to.

This dont look good, its already at 135mph

CHRISTY · #198 Postby **CHRISTY** » Fri Apr 21, 2006 8:30 pm

look at the windfield! :eek:

#199 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Apr 21, 2006 8:34 pm

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 46
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST Saturday 22 April 2006

A CYCLONE WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities between PORT
ROPER and MANINGRIDA, including NHULUNBUY and ALYANGULA.

A CYCLONE WATCH extends west for coastal and island communities between
MANINGRIDA and POINT STUART, including CAPE DON.

At 10 am CST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica CATEGORY 4 was located about 285
kilometres east of Nhulunbuy, and 355 kilometres east northeast of Alyangula,
moving slowly north northwest. The cyclone is slowly intensifying and is
expected to move slowly west northwest across the Gulf of Carpentaria.

GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between
GROOTE EYLANDT and ELCHO ISLAND, including NHULUNBUY and ALYANGULA, late this
afternoon or this evening. GALES may increase to DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to
160 kilometres per hour in this area tonight as the cyclone moves closer to the
coast. GALES near the outer edge of the cyclone may extend as far south as PORT
ROPER tonight or west to MANINGRIDA Sunday morning.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica with gusts to 290
kilometres per hour may approach the northeast Arnhem Land coast early on
Sunday.

GALES may extend further west into Arnhem land and along the coast to POINT
STUART, including CAPE DON, later on Sunday.

DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between
GROOTE EYLANDT and ELCHO ISLAND tonight and on Sunday.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low
lying areas on Sunday in northeastern Arnhem land.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 10 am CST:
. Centre located near...... 12.6 degrees South 139.4 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... slowly towards the north northwest
. Wind gusts near centre... 260 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 4
. Central pressure......... 945 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is now current between PORT ROPER and MANINGRIDA. A
CYCLONE WATCH extends west to POINT STUART, including CAPE DON.

The next advice will be issued at 2 pm CST Saturday.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Jim Cantore · #200 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Fri Apr 21, 2006 8:40 pm

CHRISTY wrote:look at the windfield!

Hurricane force luckily is confined to a small area..... for now

Cyclone Monica - Cat. 5

Arafura Sea: TC Monica 2: 2nd Cat. 5 cyclone of the year

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