Cyclone Monica - Cat. 5

[Rod Hagen]

Monica is now heading towards an area that is significantly more densly populated than the section of Cape York which it crossed earlier.

East Arnhem Land , which looks like its next landfall, has a population of around 15000, with around 3,750 in the mining town of Nhulunbuy , and the rest in a number of Indigenosu communities and smaller mining centres.

I see the US navy projections now contemplate it reaching winds of 90 knots with gusts to 110 knots



Cheers

Rod

[DoctorHurricane2003]

The JTWC is terribly inaccurate, especially in this part of the world...its best to use what comes out of the BOM

[HurricaneBill]

The JTWC is terribly inaccurate, especially in this part of the world...its best to use what comes out of the BOM

True. Remember Cyclone Harvey last year?

[Rod Hagen]

The JTWC is terribly inaccurate, especially in this part of the world...its best to use what comes out of the BOM

They actually aren't that far apart in terms of both track and intensity at present, though the BOM track map auggests a lightly more northerly direction:
__________
IDD20130
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

40:2:2:24:14S140E999:11:00
PANPAN

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 1930 UTC 20 APRIL 2006

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica estimated within 15 nautical miles of
13.6 S 140.2 E moving NORTHWEST at 4 knots. Central pressure 960 hPa.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Sustained winds to 75 knots near centre increasing to 100 knots within 12 to 24
hours.
Winds above 64 knots within 25 nautical miles of centre with very high to
phenomenal seas.
Winds above 48 knots within 50 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high
seas and moderate to heavy swell.
Winds above 34 knots within 100 nautical miles of centre with rough to very
rough seas and moderate swell.

0600 UTC 21 Apr: centre within 40 nautical miles of 13.3 S 139.8 E.
950 hPa. Winds to 90 knots near centre.
1800 UTC 21 Apr: centre within 75 nautical miles of 12.9 S 139.3 E.
945 hPa. Winds to 100 knots near centre.

REMARKS
Ships in the general area please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.


DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

______



Cheers

Rod

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 38
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:12 am CST Friday 21 April 2006

A CYCLONE WARNING has been declared for coastal and island communities between
GROOTE EYLANDT and ELCHO ISLAND, including NHULUNBUY and ALYANGULA.

A CYCLONE WATCH is now current for coastal and island communities between PORT
ROPER and GROOTE EYLANDT and also between ELCHO ISLAND and GOULBURN ISLAND.

At 10 am CST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica CATEGORY 3 was located by radar
about 370 kilometres east southeast of Nhulunbuy, and 390 kilometres east of
Alyangula, moving slowly west northwest. The cyclone is intensifying and is
expected to continue to move slowly northwest across the Gulf of Carpentaria
towards the northeastern Arnhemland coast tonight and on Saturday.

GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between
GROOTE EYLANDT and ELCHO ISLAND, including NHULUNBUY and ALYANGULA during
Saturday morning. GALES are expected to increase to DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts
to 160 kilometres per hour in this area later on Saturday as the cyclone moves
closer to the coast.

GALES may extend further west into Arnhemland and along the coast to GOULBURN
ISLAND during Sunday. GALES may also extend south later on Saturday to PORT
ROPER if the cyclone takes a more westerly path.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause MINOR FLOODING at the coast between GROOTE
EYLANDT and ELCHO ISLAND on Saturday night and Sunday.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding of low lying areas on Sunday in
northeastern Arnhem land.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 10 am CST:
. Centre located near...... 13.4 degrees South 140.0 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... slowly towards the west northwest
. Wind gusts near centre... 200 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 3
. Central pressure......... 960 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is now current between GROOTE EYLANDT and ELCHO
ISLAND. A CYCLONE WATCH extends south to PORT ROPER and west to GOULBURN ISLAND.

The next advice will be issued at 2 Pm CST.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

REMEMBER THE PACIFIC MONICA, WELL THE CARPENTARIA MONICA IS BECOMING AN EVEN WORSE CREATURE.

[Coredesat]

WWPS20 KNES 210222
SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN MTSAT VIS/IRDAY
.
APRIL 21 2006 0133Z
.
13.7S 140.0E T5.5/5.5/D2.5/24HRS MONICA (23P)
.
PAST POSITION....13.8S 140.1E 20/1333Z IRNIGHT
13.9S 141.0E 20/0133Z VIS/IRDAY
.
REMARKS....CLOUD FILLED EYE IS EMBEDDED 1 DEGREE RESULTING IN A
DT OF 6.0. PT IS 5.5 WHILE MET IS 4.5 FOR A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
SYSTEM. FT BASED ON CONSTRAINTS.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NMI.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 21/1000Z.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Monica is a force to be reckoned with. Right now according to that forecast if she continues moving NE her next target after Australia will probably India.

[CHRISTY]

impressive!

[Rod Hagen]

Monica is a force to be reckoned with. Right now according to that forecast if she continues moving NE her next target after Australia will probably India.

NW you mean, I think, HH!

It might find crossing the equator a bit of a problem in making it to India, though!


Cheers

Rod

[HurricaneHunter914]

Oh yeah I forgot. Would she deteorate because of the different spins of each hemisphere or would she weaken then change her wind direction?

[Coredesat]

IDD20130
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

40:2:2:24:13S140E999:11:00
PANPAN

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 0100 UTC 21 APRIL 2006

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica estimated within 15 nautical miles of
13.4 S 140.0 E moving slowly NORTHNORTHWEST. Central pressure 960 hPa.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre

FORECAST
Sustained winds to 75 knots near centre increasing to 100 knots within 12 to 24
hours.
Winds above 64 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre with very high to
phenomenal seas.
Winds above 48 knots within 45 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high
seas and moderate to heavy swell.
Winds above 34 knots within 90 nautical miles of centre with rough to very rough
seas and moderate swell.

1200 UTC 21 Apr: centre within 40 nautical miles of 13.0 S 139.5 E.
950 hPa. Winds to 90 knots near centre.
0000 UTC 22 Apr: centre within 75 nautical miles of 12.5 S 138.4 E.
945 hPa. Winds to 100 knots near centre.

REMARKS
Ships in the general area please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.



DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[HurricaneHunter914]

What is 100 knots in MPH? Is it 120 mph?

[Rod Hagen]

100 knots = 115 mph = 185 kph


Cheers

Rod

[HURAKAN]

What is 100 knots in MPH? Is it 120 mph?

100 knots = 115 mph

Since the BoM scale is based on 10-min, if you take this to 1-min:

100 knots X 1.14 = 114 knots = 135 mph (Cat. 4)

[mike815]

cat 3 now

[HURAKAN]

Oh yeah I forgot. Would she deteorate because of the different spins of each hemisphere or would she weaken then change her wind direction?

In theory, a cyclone can't cross between hemispheres because they rely on the Coriolis Effect. In the Equator, the Coriolis Effect doesn't exist, therefore, the spin that basically makes a cyclones doesn't exist and furthermore, a cyclone can't exist. In theory, a cyclone will degenerate into an area of showers and thunderstorms if it crosses the Equator. We have never seen this happening, even though in 2001 Vamei formed at 1.5 N and in 2004 Agni formed at .7 N. Before those storms formed, it was though that no cyclone could form so close to the Equator because of the lessening effect of the Coriolis Effect as you go closer to the Equator.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM AGNI: NOTICE HOW THE SOUTHERN CIRCULATION IS IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE!



TYPHOON VAMEI: LIKE WITH AGNI, PART OF THE SOUTHERN CIRCULATION WAS IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE!

[HURAKAN]

Before the discussion begins, I know JMA classified Vamei as a tropical storm but this image shows a very well-developed eye, which leds me to believe that the 75-knots estimate by the JTWC was closer to the actual intensity than JMA was.

[Derek Ortt]

I believe a cyclone CAN cross the equator if the bacground relative vorticty is enough. Absolute vorticity is both platanery and relative vorticity

It would not be the most favorable set-up, but it is possible to cross the eq

Remember, a cyclone formed at .2N a couple of years ago in the Inidian Ocean, where Fc is ~0

[HurricaneBill]

I believe a cyclone CAN cross the equator if the bacground relative vorticty is enough. Absolute vorticity is both platanery and relative vorticity

It would not be the most favorable set-up, but it is possible to cross the eq

Remember, a cyclone formed at .2N a couple of years ago in the Inidian Ocean, where Fc is ~0

I read somewhere that prior to developing into a tropical cyclone, Agni actually did cross the equator briefly. I think a scan showed pre-Agni at about 0.5S with a counter-clockwise spin.