Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

highest as of 15 is 42 knots...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

SXXX50 KNHC 270533
AF303 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 16 KNHC
0523. 1636N 07246W 01472 5059 305 021 212 176 025 01448 0000000000
0524 1637N 07245W 01464 5064 279 009 206 180 014 01434 0000000000
0524. 1638N 07244W 01463 5065 174 024 206 180 038 01433 0000000000
0525 1639N 07243W 01468 5049 168 047 186 186 051 01454 0000000000
0525. 1641N 07241W 01461 5032 166 057 172 172 059 01463 0000000000
0526 1642N 07240W 01464 5020 159 052 172 172 053 01478 0000000000
0526. 1644N 07239W 01467 5009 146 050 174 174 052 01493 0000000000
0527 1646N 07239W 01466 5003 131 053 158 158 054 01497 0000000000
0527. 1647N 07240W 01456 5004 121 055 148 148 056 01486 0000000100
0528 1646N 07241W 01478 5013 113 055 150 150 055 01500 0000000100
0528. 1645N 07241W 01460 5007 132 049 166 166 051 01488 0000000000
0529 1644N 07241W 01457 5010 147 045 170 170 046 01482 0000000000
0529. 1643N 07242W 01461 5019 153 048 172 172 049 01477 0000000000
0530 1642N 07243W 01462 5026 152 039 182 182 046 01471 0000000000
0530. 1641N 07245W 01461 5034 127 017 192 192 028 01462 0000000000
0531 1639N 07246W 01459 5046 009 026 232 188 033 01447 0000000000
0531. 1638N 07247W 01448 5049 358 032 232 188 041 01434 0000000000
0532 1636N 07248W 01494 5044 349 033 264 166 039 01485 0000000000
0532. 1635N 07250W 01459 5033 327 027 252 166 033 01460 0000000000
0533 1633N 07251W 01457 5024 314 035 264 154 037 01468 0000000000
;

[MWatkins]

Looks like the punched the center near 16.7N 72.8W:

Code: Select all

822
SXXX50 KNHC 270533
AF303 0505A ERNESTO      HDOB 16 KNHC
0523. 1636N 07246W 01472 5059 305 021 212 176 025 01448 0000000000
0524  1637N 07245W 01464 5064 279 009 206 180 014 01434 0000000000
0524. 1638N 07244W 01463 5065 174 024 206 180 038 01433 0000000000
0525  1639N 07243W 01468 5049 168 047 186 186 051 01454 0000000000
0525. 1641N 07241W 01461 5032 166 057 172 172 059 01463 0000000000
0526  1642N 07240W 01464 5020 159 052 172 172 053 01478 0000000000
0526. 1644N 07239W 01467 5009 146 050 174 174 052 01493 0000000000
0527  1646N 07239W 01466 5003 131 053 158 158 054 01497 0000000000
0527. 1647N 07240W 01456 5004 121 055 148 148 056 01486 0000000100
0528  1646N 07241W 01478 5013 113 055 150 150 055 01500 0000000100
0528. 1645N 07241W 01460 5007 132 049 166 166 051 01488 0000000000
0529  1644N 07241W 01457 5010 147 045 170 170 046 01482 0000000000
0529. 1643N 07242W 01461 5019 153 048 172 172 049 01477 0000000000
0530  1642N 07243W 01462 5026 152 039 182 182 046 01471 0000000000
0530. 1641N 07245W 01461 5034 127 017 192 192 028 01462 0000000000
0531  1639N 07246W 01459 5046 009 026 232 188 033 01447 0000000000
0531. 1638N 07247W 01448 5049 358 032 232 188 041 01434 0000000000
0532  1636N 07248W 01494 5044 349 033 264 166 039 01485 0000000000
0532. 1635N 07250W 01459 5033 327 027 252 166 033 01460 0000000000
0533  1633N 07251W 01457 5024 314 035 264 154 037 01468 0000000000


MW

[teal61]

appears the center is around 16.5 or so a little south of the NHC 11pm

[MWatkins]

Jeepers that means it has been nearly stationary since 11PM...

MW

[teal61]

Jeepers that means it has been nearly stationary since 11PM...

MW

That or the NHC position was a little off. It's been really hard to pick out a center looking at sat pics tonight.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

881
SXXX50 KNHC 270543
AF303 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 17 KNHC
0533. 1632N 07252W 01466 5017 320 033 256 152 036 01484 0000000000
0534 1631N 07253W 01465 5011 309 026 248 134 030 01489 0000000000
0534. 1629N 07254W 01460 5005 302 021 236 144 028 01489 0000000000
0535 1628N 07255W 01464 0001 292 017 220 160 019 01500 0000000000
0535. 1629N 07256W 01468 5001 289 015 220 158 016 01502 0000000000
0536 1630N 07257W 01464 5003 335 018 228 134 021 01495 0000000000
0536. 1631N 07259W 01465 5004 344 025 226 142 028 01496 0000000000
0537 1632N 07300W 01462 5003 330 026 236 126 029 01494 0000000000
0537. 1633N 07300W 01464 5002 340 026 236 130 027 01497 0000000000
0538 1634N 07301W 01463 5003 001 027 228 142 028 01494 0000000000
0538. 1636N 07302W 01466 5003 015 031 218 152 032 01498 0000000000
0539 1637N 07303W 01464 5002 020 036 208 158 037 01497 0000000000
0539. 1638N 07304W 01466 0000 026 036 202 160 037 01501 0000000000
0540 1639N 07305W 01462 0001 041 038 198 166 040 01497 0000000000
0540. 1640N 07306W 01464 0001 046 043 210 150 044 01500 0000000000
0541 1642N 07307W 01464 0003 046 040 208 146 041 01501 0000000000
0541. 1643N 07308W 01462 0004 044 038 208 146 040 01501 0000000000
0542 1644N 07309W 01468 0006 050 042 204 152 044 01508 0000000000
0542. 1646N 07310W 01465 0007 059 049 198 162 051 01507 0000000000
0543 1647N 07311W 01461 0009 060 049 198 164 050 01504 0000000000
;

[Aquawind]

0525. 1641N 07241W 01461 5032 166 057 172 172 059 01463 0000000000

59kts FL thus far..

[LeeJet]

So what are the top winds?

[clfenwi]

011
WTNT35 KNHC 270554
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006

...ERNESTO GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED SOUTH OF HAITI...
...HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN
EASTERN CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST OR ABOUT 130
MILES...215 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT
285 MILES...455 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PASS
NEAR WESTERN HAITI AND JAMAICA LATER TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.35 INCHES.

TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO
APPROACHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO MAY
PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...16.7 N...72.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

842
SXXX50 KNHC 270553
AF303 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 18 KNHC
0543. 1648N 07312W 01463 0011 063 047 196 164 048 01509 0000000000
0544 1650N 07313W 01462 0013 064 046 192 164 047 01510 0000000000
0544. 1651N 07314W 01464 0014 063 041 196 162 041 01513 0000000000
0545 1652N 07315W 01464 0016 067 041 196 160 042 01514 0000000000
0545. 1654N 07316W 01465 0017 069 041 190 164 042 01517 0000000000
0546 1655N 07317W 01462 0018 068 040 196 160 041 01514 0000000000
0546. 1656N 07318W 01465 0019 071 041 192 164 043 01519 0000000000
0547 1658N 07320W 01465 0020 076 045 186 168 045 01520 0000000000
0547. 1659N 07321W 01462 0022 076 048 186 164 049 01518 0000000000
0548 1701N 07322W 01465 0024 075 047 186 164 048 01525 0000000000
0548. 1702N 07323W 01463 0026 075 046 178 164 047 01523 0000000000
0549 1703N 07324W 01465 0026 080 046 182 164 046 01526 0000000000
0549. 1705N 07325W 01462 0027 080 046 184 158 046 01524 0000000000
0550 1706N 07326W 01465 0028 079 046 184 154 047 01528 0000000000
0550. 1708N 07327W 01463 0029 081 047 180 154 048 01527 0000000000
0551 1709N 07329W 01464 0031 078 049 178 156 049 01530 0000000000
0551. 1710N 07330W 01467 0032 070 044 166 166 045 01534 0000000000
0552 1712N 07331W 01460 0032 071 044 164 164 045 01526 0000000000
0552. 1713N 07332W 01465 0033 079 043 164 164 044 01533 0000000000
0553 1715N 07333W 01464 0034 080 042 162 162 043 01533 0000000000
;


59 knots=47.2 knots at the surface.

[LeeJet]

842
SXXX50 KNHC 270553
AF303 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 18 KNHC
0543. 1648N 07312W 01463 0011 063 047 196 164 048 01509 0000000000
0544 1650N 07313W 01462 0013 064 046 192 164 047 01510 0000000000
0544. 1651N 07314W 01464 0014 063 041 196 162 041 01513 0000000000
0545 1652N 07315W 01464 0016 067 041 196 160 042 01514 0000000000
0545. 1654N 07316W 01465 0017 069 041 190 164 042 01517 0000000000
0546 1655N 07317W 01462 0018 068 040 196 160 041 01514 0000000000
0546. 1656N 07318W 01465 0019 071 041 192 164 043 01519 0000000000
0547 1658N 07320W 01465 0020 076 045 186 168 045 01520 0000000000
0547. 1659N 07321W 01462 0022 076 048 186 164 049 01518 0000000000
0548 1701N 07322W 01465 0024 075 047 186 164 048 01525 0000000000
0548. 1702N 07323W 01463 0026 075 046 178 164 047 01523 0000000000
0549 1703N 07324W 01465 0026 080 046 182 164 046 01526 0000000000
0549. 1705N 07325W 01462 0027 080 046 184 158 046 01524 0000000000
0550 1706N 07326W 01465 0028 079 046 184 154 047 01528 0000000000
0550. 1708N 07327W 01463 0029 081 047 180 154 048 01527 0000000000
0551 1709N 07329W 01464 0031 078 049 178 156 049 01530 0000000000
0551. 1710N 07330W 01467 0032 070 044 166 166 045 01534 0000000000
0552 1712N 07331W 01460 0032 071 044 164 164 045 01526 0000000000
0552. 1713N 07332W 01465 0033 079 043 164 164 044 01533 0000000000
0553 1715N 07333W 01464 0034 080 042 162 162 043 01533 0000000000
;


59 knots=47.2 knots at the surface.

Are these the strongest winds?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is the northwest quad which only found lower 50s...But the southeast found 59 knots=47.2 knots. So 50 knots it reminds.

[SouthFloridawx]

Where is the VDM?

[MWatkins]

According to the 2AM Advisory...only missed it by 1/10th of a degree west.

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... TNT35.KNHC

MW

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

797
URNT12 KNHC 270559
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/05:23:50Z
B. 16 deg 37 min N
072 deg 45 min W
C. 850 mb 1391 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 323 deg 040 kt
G. 224 deg 008 nm
H. 997 mb
I. 22 C/ 1440 m
J. 26 C/ 1461 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF303 0505A ERNESTO OB 05
MAX FL WIND 40 KT SE QUAD 05:21:30 Z
;


No change

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

325
SXXX50 KNHC 270603
AF303 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 19 KNHC
0553. 1716N 07334W 01464 0035 076 043 160 160 044 01534 0000000000
0554 1717N 07335W 01464 0035 079 040 162 162 042 01534 0000000000
0554. 1719N 07336W 01465 0036 080 040 160 160 040 01536 0000000000
0555 1720N 07338W 01463 0037 082 043 160 160 044 01534 0000000000
0555. 1722N 07339W 01464 0037 081 044 162 162 045 01536 0000000000
0556 1723N 07340W 01464 0038 084 043 160 160 044 01537 0000000000
0556. 1725N 07341W 01464 0039 083 044 156 156 045 01538 0000000000
0557 1726N 07342W 01465 0039 085 043 156 156 044 0lMfV
0557. 1727N 07343W 01462 0041 084 042 154 154 042 01538 0000000000
0558 1729N 07344W 01465 0043 080 040 152 152 041 01542 0000000000
0558. 1730N 07345W 01463 0044 077 039 154 154 040 01542 0000000000
0559 1732N 07347W 01464 0044 073 040 156 150 041 01543 0000000000
0559. 1733N 07348W 01464 0045 072 040 158 146 041 01543 0000000000
0600 1734N 07349W 01465 0046 073 040 160 144 040 01546 0000000000
0600. 1736N 07350W 01463 0046 073 039 160 140 040 01543 0000000000
0601 1737N 07351W 01465 0047 075 039 162 140 039 01547 0000000000
0601. 1738N 07352W 01464 0047 075 039 164 138 039 01546 0000000000
0602 1739N 07354W 01462 0047 077 039 166 138 039 01544 0000000000
0602. 1740N 07356W 01464 0048 078 037 166 136 038 01547 0000000000
0603 1741N 07357W 01464 0048 080 038 166 136 038 01547 0000000000
;

[clfenwi]

Flying south, along the western edge of the storm....

SXXX50 KNHC 270613
AF303 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 20 KNHC
0603. 1742N 07359W 01464 0049 080 037 168 136 038 01547 0000000000
0604 1743N 07401W 01464 0049 083 037 170 138 038 01548 0000000000
0604. 1744N 07402W 01464 0050 082 038 170 134 039 01548 0000000000
0605 1745N 07404W 01465 0049 083 038 170 132 039 01549 0000000000
0605. 1746N 07406W 01464 0050 082 037 172 132 038 01549 0000000000
0606 1747N 07408W 01462 0050 083 036 168 142 036 01547 0000000000
0606. 1748N 07409W 01467 0052 079 036 172 130 037 01554 0000000000
0607 1747N 07411W 01466 0053 076 037 174 128 037 01553 0000000000
0607. 1745N 07411W 01459 0051 070 034 172 130 034 01545 0000000000
0608 1743N 07412W 01464 0051 071 035 170 126 036 01550 0000000000
0608. 1742N 07412W 01464 0051 073 034 170 130 035 01550 0000000000
0609 1740N 07412W 01465 0050 074 033 166 146 034 01550 0000000000
0609. 1738N 07412W 01465 0051 077 033 170 136 034 01551 0000000000
0610 1737N 07412W 01464 0051 076 034 170 136 034 01550 0000000000
0610. 1735N 07412W 01462 0051 076 034 170 136 035 01548 0000000000
0611 1733N 07412W 01465 0050 073 035 166 138 035 01550 0000000000
0611. 1731N 07413W 01465 0050 071 034 166 138 034 01549 0000000000
0612 1730N 07413W 01465 0049 070 033 166 140 033 01549 0000000000
0612. 1728N 07413W 01463 0049 068 034 166 142 035 01547 0000000000
0613 1726N 07413W 01463 0048 066 036 162 146 036 01546 0000000000

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

991
SXXX50 KNHC 270613
AF303 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 20 KNHC
0603. 1742N 07359W 01464 0049 080 037 168 136 038 01547 0000000000
0604 1743N 07401W 01464 0049 083 037 170 138 038 01548 0000000000
0604. 1744N 07402W 01464 0050 082 038 170 134 039 01548 0000000000
0605 1745N 07404W 01465 0049 083 038 170 132 039 01549 0000000000
0605. 1746N 07406W 01464 0050 082 037 172 132 038 01549 0000000000
0606 1747N 07408W 01462 0050 083 036 168 142 036 01547 0000000000
0606. 1748N 07409W 01467 0052 079 036 172 130 037 01554 0000000000
0607 1747N 07411W 01466 0053 076 037 174 128 037 01553 0000000000
0607. 1745N 07411W 01459 0051 070 034 172 130 034 01545 0000000000
0608 1743N 07412W 01464 0051 071 035 170 126 036 01550 0000000000
0608. 1742N 07412W 01464 0051 073 034 170 130 035 01550 0000000000
0609 1740N 07412W 01465 0050 074 033 166 146 034 01550 0000000000
0609. 1738N 07412W 01465 0051 077 033 170 136 034 01551 0000000000
0610 1737N 07412W 01464 0051 076 034 170 136 034 01550 0000000000
0610. 1735N 07412W 01462 0051 076 034 170 136 035 01548 0000000000
0611 1733N 07412W 01465 0050 073 035 166 138 035 01550 0000000000
0611. 1731N 07413W 01465 0050 071 034 166 138 034 01549 0000000000
0612 1730N 07413W 01465 0049 070 033 166 140 033 01549 0000000000
0612. 1728N 07413W 01463 0049 068 034 166 142 035 01547 0000000000
0613 1726N 07413W 01463 0048 066 036 162 146 036 01546 0000000000
;

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

SXXX50 KNHC 270623
AF303 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 21 KNHC
0613. 1724N 07413W 01463 0047 067 036 160 146 036 01545 0000000000
0614 1723N 07413W 01464 0046 071 034 162 150 034 01545 0000000000
0614. 1721N 07413W 01462 0046 072 034 162 152 035 01542 0000000000
0615 1719N 07414W 01465 0045 072 033 160 154 034 01544 0000000000
0615. 1717N 07414W 01464 0045 073 032 156 156 032 01544 0000000000
0616 1716N 07414W 01462 0044 075 030 158 158 032 01541 0000000000
0616. 1714N 07414W 01464 0043 078 029 164 158 029 01542 0000000000
0617 1712N 07414W 01464 0043 080 030 168 154 030 01542 0000000000
0617. 1711N 07414W 01464 0042 080 029 166 156 030 01541 0000000000
0618 1709N 07414W 01465 0042 076 029 166 156 029 01542 0000000000
0618. 1707N 07415W 01463 0041 073 030 166 154 030 01539 0000000000
0619 1705N 07415W 01464 0041 072 028 166 156 028 01540 0000000000
0619. 1704N 07415W 01463 0040 073 027 164 156 028 01538 0000000000
0620 1702N 07415W 01463 0039 074 027 164 156 028 01537 0000000000
0620. 1700N 07415W 01465 0039 071 027 162 158 028 01539 0000000000
0621 1659N 07415W 01464 0039 066 026 160 160 026 01538 0000000000
0621. 1657N 07415W 01462 0039 066 025 162 162 026 01535 0000000000
0622 1655N 07415W 01464 0038 068 027 166 162 028 01537 0000000000
0622. 1653N 07416W 01464 0038 062 027 164 164 027 01537 0000000000
0623 1652N 07416W 01464 0038 061 028 166 158 028 01537 0000000000
;