Hurricane Isaac - Cat. 1

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I guest I sould not be sad...Look on the bright side we had 2 nice majors with a active Eastern pacific.

[caribepr]

There ya go Matt!!!! I'm so PROUD of you!!!! Now...we continue to knock on wood around here.

[SouthFloridawx]

00z run last night.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

But the 12z doesn't show anything like that.

Yeah, it's interesting ... if anything, the 12Z builds the subtropical ridge stronger and holds it longer than the earlier runs, but it has absolutely nothing under there ...

Sort of "Field of Dreams" in reverse - what if you built it and nobody came?

Interesting that GFS builds in a stronger ridge because in the long range runs for the past couple of months destroy the ridge 10+ days.

Lets look at the days prior runs, 00Z, 06Z, 12Z and the 18Z all being the same time frame and see what the pattern is. Mind you I haven't even looked at the differences so lets see if it has some consitency from run to run.

00Z 168 Hours


06Z 162 Hours


12Z 156 Hours


18Z 150 Hours

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Was that a rhetorical question?

Pretty consistent run for some things, others not so consistent.

The model either does not resolve or dissipates 96. However, the H moves ever closer and deepens with each run to finally being at around 55W. Only the 12z run shows the hint of a deeper front moving in. If I see it correctly, the model will move whatever is left of 96 SW over time.

In order to hit the US the storm would have to move at the right time and location around the periphery of the high exactly as it retrogrades E in response to the front. That would have to be pretty bad luck. And it is doubtful that the storm even becomes a "storm."

[Cyclenall]

Very sad

What are you so sad about?

He and me are sad that TD2-C did not "take off". It could have been such a strong storm like Ioke too .

[SouthFloridawx]

Was that a rhetorical question?

Pretty consistent run for some things, others not so consistent.

The model either does not resolve or dissipates 96. However, the H moves ever closer and deepens with each run to finally being at around 55W. Only the 12z run shows the hint of a deeper front moving in. If I see it correctly, the model will move whatever is left of 96 SW over time.

In order to hit the US the storm would have to move at the right time and location around the periphery of the high exactly as it retrogrades E in response to the front. That would have to be pretty bad luck. And it is doubtful that the storm even becomes a "storm."

No it wasn't rhetorical. I want to start comparing runs from GFS and or other models to see what kinds of patterns they develope to see if there is any consistency.

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962006) ON 20060922 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060922 0000 060922 1200 060923 0000 060923 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.8N 35.5W 13.0N 37.5W 14.7N 39.2W 16.5N 40.5W
BAMM 11.8N 35.5W 12.8N 37.6W 14.4N 39.3W 16.1N 40.4W
A98E 11.8N 35.5W 12.2N 37.0W 12.9N 38.7W 14.1N 40.3W
LBAR 11.8N 35.5W 12.8N 37.6W 14.5N 39.7W 16.5N 41.7W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060924 0000 060925 0000 060926 0000 060927 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.3N 41.3W 21.0N 42.2W 23.5N 43.2W 25.5N 44.4W
BAMM 17.6N 41.1W 19.3N 42.4W 20.8N 45.1W 23.1N 48.5W
A98E 15.3N 41.9W 17.7N 45.4W 20.1N 48.7W 24.0N 51.1W
LBAR 18.1N 43.3W 21.1N 45.0W 23.6N 46.8W 26.2N 49.0W
SHIP 53KTS 64KTS 66KTS 67KTS
DSHP 53KTS 64KTS 66KTS 67KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.8N LONCUR = 35.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 11.6N LONM12 = 34.4W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 32.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

00:00z Models.

[wxman57]

Doesn't look very impressive tonight. I suppose it could develop over the next 2-3 days. But this one is almost certainly going to follow the path of Gordon & Helene - safely out to sea.

[deltadog03]

wxman...do you think the season is about bye bye time?

[gatorcane]

wxman...do you think the season is about bye bye time?

I'm not WxMan but I do think the Western Caribbean or NW Caribbean will breed a system that will end this season in a bang. Just my thought.

[wxmann_91]

wxman...do you think the season is about bye bye time?

Definitely not.

It's still September, believe it or not.

[OURAGAN]

You can clearly sea 96 L at 10,5N/39W, not AT 12N where it is initialised

[Nimbus]

Looks like it would take more than a week for a Bermuda high pattern to develop. No surprise all the recent models have been showing 96L getting north of 20 before 50W same as Gordon and Helene. Season may fizzle out after all lots of years we don't have tropical activity after September. How does that old saying go? September remember October its over.

[Nimbus]

You can clearly sea 96 L at 10,5N/39W, not AT 12N where it is initialised

The convection seems to be firing up from 11.5N - 12N that may focus the circulation further north. We could get a TD today by the looks of things.

[wxman57]

wxman...do you think the season is about bye bye time?

I'm not WxMan but I do think the Western Caribbean or NW Caribbean will breed a system that will end this season in a bang. Just my thought.

I'd agree with you there, gatorcane. The pattern is changing and the threat may shift to the western Caribbean next week.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If theres a LLC it would be near 13-14 north/39-40 west. I see lower clouds moving around around there. This is not a super organized convective system, convection wise. But a little more when it comes to a surface low.

[HURAKAN]

Looking better.

[curtadams]

The models are in unusual agreement on this. They all have it as a TD moving NNW for a few days and then getting sheared back to a wave. The GFS still moves it north afterwards but the rest all move it WNW.

I notice the US coast is being defended by the jet stream. Pretty far S for September. Doesn't look like any hurricane could seriously hurt the US for the next week apart from maybe FL.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Too much emphasis on the models when there isn't even a depression. If you look at the whole picture and see the ULL to the waves NW side you can see how it is getting sheared. The ULL is suppose to slide away. If this happens then it has a chance. Till then . What models!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

[Evil Jeremy]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_96.gif

north than west. oh boy.