Tropical Storm Chris

[skysummit]

I'm just now looking at the first visible shots this morning in a 7 image loop back to 1015z. Does it look like it slowed down a bit to anyone else?

[JonathanBelles]

i have google earth....but i thought that was a real time shot..oops

[Nancy]

We put an addition on the rear of our house 2+ years ago, and Google earth still shows a picture without it.

[senorpepr]

We put an addition on the rear of our house 2+ years ago, and Google earth still shows a picture without it.

That really isn't a Google Earth problem so much as it is a Mother Nature problem.

The frequency of a midday, cloud-free satellite shot over South Florida is a rare as a Kansas City Royals win.

[Janice]

Well, I am definately going to watch it. This is late for me. I am not prepared. We leave tomorrow morning for a four day conference in SanJuan and will be staying in a hotel there. I will not be home. If it looks bad, John will have to come home and put up plywood. This timing stinks for us.

[greels]

I guess we are looking at this system impacting our island in about three days or so....time to head in town to top off the hurricane supplies and water etc.

My concerns here are the rains we might receive......our tiny island is pretty much all a"flood zone".

[HurricaneJim]

Slow is good for Chris, bad for Bahamas and FL.

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers

[x-y-no]

I'm just now looking at the first visible shots this morning in a 7 image loop back to 1015z. Does it look like it slowed down a bit to anyone else?

It's certainly slower this morning than it was yesterday.


I'm watching that detached area of convection to the NE. It looks like it may manage to wrap around into the main circulation, in which case we may get some strengthening. Right now, it's really limited by the dry air it's sucking in on the NW side.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

header should read "Plane will depart from ST Croix at 1pm EDT", not Noon, correct?

[senorpepr]

header should read "Plane will depart from ST Croix at 1pm EDT", not Noon, correct?

Correct. I changed the thread title to reflect it properly.

[cycloneye]

Slow is good for Chris, bad for Bahamas and FL.

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers

And not good for the NE Caribbean islands.

[Cyclenall]

Here's my thoughts. The difference of the forecast compared to last night IMO is large. I didn't buy that weak depression forecast last night since I thought it had enough time to at least become a TS. Now we have Chris, and in only 6 hours. I like this new forecast that came out at 5:00 am and I agree with it. Who writing the next one?

[Jim Cantore]

Slow is good for Chris, bad for Bahamas and FL.

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers

And not good for the NE Caribbean islands.

What I'm really worrying about more is if this gets into the GOM down the road

[ericinmia]

the 00z run of the fsu mm5 at 18K resolution.

just fyi the the 54k resolution puts it south of cuba... but the 18k is a much better resolution to look at, 6k is even better but it doesn't go out that far. So be careful when looking at them.

[jasons2k]

don't have time to look at much at all, but i'm not that surprised considering yesterday's reports. I am concerned about the strength of the ridge. But what's new?

[cycloneye]

535
WTNT43 KNHC 011429
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006

BASED ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUADELOUPE SHOW SOME FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED
SPIRAL RAIN BANDS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 35 KT...35 KT...AND 25 KT RESPECTIVELY.
SINCE THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF STRENGTHENING...THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT. CHRIS IS IN A RATHER ANTICYCLONIC
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AS EVIDENCED BY HIGH SEA LEVEL
PRESSURES OVER THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IN
FACT...THE 850 MB ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY IS A SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE
PREDICTOR IN THE 12Z SHIPS MODEL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR CHRIS.
NORTHERLY SHEAR IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE SYSTEM AND THIS IS
INHIBITING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. AS
NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CHRIS COULD BECOME FAVORABLY
SITUATED IN A COL REGION BETWEEN TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS MIGHT LEAD TO A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT AND IS ABOVE THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CONSENSUS...ICON. IT SHOULD NOTED THAT THE
GFS...U.K. MET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS ESSENTIALLY
DISSIPATE CHRIS WITHIN 5 DAYS.

EVEN WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES...THE CENTER IS NOT
WELL-DEFINED. HOWEVER THE ADVISORY LOCATION IS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE GUADELOUPE RADAR OBSERVATIONS. INITIAL MOTION
IS ESTIMATED AT 295/9. CHRIS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF
A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA. A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL
LOW...IS NOW IN THE VICINITY OF 70W LONGITUDE. THIS WEAKNESS IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD WHILE A RIDGE IS MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH
OF CHRIS. THIS STEERING REGIME SHOULD MAINTAIN THE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS.

AIR FORCE RECON ARE SCHEDULED TO MAKE AN 1800 UTC FIX ON CHRIS. WE
EXPECT THE AIRCRAFT DATA TO PROVIDE US WITH A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
LOCATION...STRENGTH...AND STRUCTURE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 17.3N 60.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 17.9N 61.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 18.8N 64.1W 45 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 19.7N 66.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 20.4N 68.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 21.7N 72.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 23.0N 75.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 24.0N 78.5W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


065
WTNT33 KNHC 011429
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

...CHRIS APPROACHING THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS...HAS NOT
STRENGTHENED...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.3 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES...160 KM...EAST OF ANTIGUA.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE A MORE
ACCURATE ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF CHRIS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
NEAR 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CHRIS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...17.3 N...60.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[beachbum_al]

No way in -ll this thing makes it to the W Gulf. If anything it may go as far as MS/AL coast line IMO.

I hope you are wrong on that one. Please be.

I know this sounds wierd and it has nothing do to with hurricanes but whenever my inlaws come down here to visit and stay in the condo for a week we have a hurricane nearby when they leave. I am serious! In 2004 they came and Ivan formed. They left a day before Ivan got in the Gulf. (Remember there place is in Orange Beach).

Once again they came in 2005 and Dennis formed. They left about three days before it came.

Now they are down again and are leaving on Saturday. And we have TS Chris out there. Yes it is a long way but I am beginning to think that my inlaws are a hurricane magnet for the Gulf. They need to stay out of here during hurricane season.

[Canelaw99]

60 mph in the Bahamas before Florida. IMO with everything that occured last year and 2004 Floridia media is gonna be all over this.

The media here would be all over this except for all the mess going on in Cuba right now. That has taken precedence over everything else. Thankfully the NHC isn't forecasting this to become a hurricane or some people would be taken by surprise at this one.

[cajungal]

I just got back home from Gatlinburg, TN about 1 a.m. on Monday. I was still able to watch the tropical updates from our condo. But, not often. I was not able to get online to storm2k for over a week and was had a feeling I was going to see Chris when I logged back in.

[cycloneye]

11 AM EDT forecast track graphic.